Who starts tomorrow? Mancini or Gentry?

[PaulFolk]

3 hours ago, dan-O said:

Sure, but none of this matters. It's obvious who will be getting the start tomorrow. Sorry. 

It's not obvious at all. There are legitimate arguments both ways. If Buck wants offense, he'll pick Mancini. If he wants defense, he'll pick Gentry. Or he could throw a curveball and start Trumbo in RF and Mancini at DH. Or start both Gentry and Mancini and keep Rickard on the bench, as others have mentioned. Thus far Buck hasn't tipped his hand.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because speed and defense aren't useful in the early innings?

Which inning does speed and defense kick in, the 6th?  Seventh?

Sorry, we know you scored from first on that double, but back to third you go, it's only the second inning.

You make fun, but there is certainly a reasonable argument to be made that these things do become more valuable in late game.

If you have a one-run lead (or two-run, etc.) in the later portion of the game, then the incremental value of defense increases relative to offense.  Mancini might be the better option overall before the game starts due to his bat, but if the team has a lead, the marginal benefit of additional runs is less than the danger of giving up a run.

Similarly, the ability to selectively deploy a pinch runner later in the game has strategic value in that there are times when maximizing the potential of scoring at least one run (down one or tie game) is more important than maximizing total run expectation/potential.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

You make fun, but there is certainly a reasonable argument to be made that these things do become more valuable in late game.

If you have a one-run lead (or two-run, etc.) in the later portion of the game, then the incremental value of defense increases relative to offense.  Mancini might be the better option overall before the game starts due to his bat, but if the team has a lead, the marginal benefit of additional runs is less than the danger of giving up a run.

Similarly, the ability to selectively deploy a pinch runner later in the game has strategic value in that there are times when maximizing the potential of scoring at least one run (down one or tie game) is more important than maximizing total run expectation/potential.

Sure, but if you have the speed and defense to begin with you might not need that incremental edge come the late game.

You can also just as easily make the case that late game situations will arise where Mancini's superior power off the bench would be more useful.

[weams]

27 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

It's not obvious at all. There are legitimate arguments both ways. Thus far Buck hasn't tipped his hand.

Not in any way. At all. 

[Redskins Rick]

3 hours ago, dan-O said:

The weather report was the weather report, I dunno what you want, guy. 

We got lucky yesterday, good rain showers came through later after the game.

[PaulFolk]

3 minutes ago, dan-O said:

Agree to disagree I guess. There's only one way this is going. There are good arguments, but those arguments don't matter.

You mean the arguments don't matter to Buck? It's true that nothing we say on this board will affect Buck's decision.

But I'm curious what evidence you have that Buck is leaning toward starting Mancini. You keep saying vague things like "It's obvious if you've been paying attention" or "Buck has already made up his mind," but you haven't supported that with anything. Please elaborate.

[Redskins Rick]

28 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

It's not obvious at all. There are legitimate arguments both ways. If Buck wants offense, he'll pick Mancini. If he wants defense, he'll pick Gentry. Or he could throw a curveball and start Trumbo in RF and Mancini at DH. Or start both Gentry and Mancini and keep Rickard on the bench, as others have mentioned. Thus far Buck hasn't tipped his hand.

Regardless of the lineup, some in OH, will not be happy.

Of those three, Gentry, Mancini and Rickard. Chances are one of them in back in AAA, when Miley has to come off the DL. Maybe Buck gives the start to the player, he plans on sending back down? IMO

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, dan-O said:

If you've watched Buck over the years, you know he is going to start Mancini. I don't know what else to say. The roster is constructed in such a way that Mancini is the platoon RF against lefties until he either proves he can't hack it out there, or he gets optioned during the upcoming roster crunch.

But he's not going to just sit on the bench while he's on the 25-man, and certainly Craig Gentry is not going to start over him because it's freakin' Craig Gentry. The guy is a fine defensive player when healthy, and hits lefties a little bit (.707, not great) but you don't start him over a hitter like Mancini against a tough lefty. 

Gentry will get starts out there, but it won't be tomorrow. 

 

Mancini is also an unproven talent, which we don't know how he will do in the bigs.

We believe he can and will do well, but until it happens, its all good intentions.

 

[PaulFolk]

6 minutes ago, dan-O said:

If you've watched Buck over the years, you know he is going to start Mancini. I don't know what else to say. The roster is constructed in such a way that Mancini is the platoon RF against lefties until he either proves he can't hack it out there, or he gets optioned during the upcoming roster crunch.

But he's not going to just sit on the bench while he's on the 25-man, and certainly Craig Gentry is not going to start over him because it's freakin' Craig Gentry. The guy is a fine defensive player when healthy, and hits lefties a little bit (.707, not great) but you don't start him over a hitter like Mancini against a tough lefty. 

Gentry will get starts out there, but it won't be tomorrow. 

 

I guess your implication is that Buck tends to go with offense over defense in the outfield. Sure, he does that a lot (like starting Trumbo in RF last year, or Delmon Young the year before). But it's not a sure thing. And keep in mind Mancini has a lot less experience as an outfielder than even Trumbo and Young did, as bad as they were. Mancini has only played the position for about two weeks.

I agree with your point about not wanting to bury Mancini on the bench. But is it too soon to start him in the outfield in a ML game? If Mancini is in the lineup, I think it's just as likely that he could be DH'ing and Trumbo in RF.

[jamalshw]

2 minutes ago, dan-O said:

It's Camden Yards! You have a kid who can mash if you only find him a spot. Buck's not stupid - Craig Gentry has never had more than 287 PA in his ML career, his career high in home runs is TWO, he doesn't hit lefties all that well, and Mark Trumbo played RF for the majority of the previous season.

What Gentry DOES bring to the table is speed and defense, which are exactly what you want out of your extra outfielder. Gentry is not a platoon player, he's a BENCH player. And he's going to be a damn fine one probably! I like him! 

He will the platoon match up for Smith once the the fifth starter is added. Gentry's been a platoon player and not just a bench guy at points in his career. While his .707 OPS against LHP isn't great, it's more a statement on his lack of power than anything else. We have plenty of pop in the lineup, sticking a .350 OBP vs. LHP guy in the ninth spot creates the 'second lead-off guy' effect the second and third times through the order. Add in superior defense and speed (as you noted) that that provides a different dynamic. I'll take a lesser offensive player for better defense if that lesser offensive player still gets on base 35% of the time and he does just that against LHP (granted that's only if healthy, which he appears to be). 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, dan-O said:

IMO, Mancini would not be on the roster if Buck didn't think he could start in RF against lefties. That's my take on it. 

Fair point on the bolded section, though. That's a possibility, but I think it's more like Buck to throw the kid into the fire. 

And if the plan is for him to be on the roster just until Miley comes off the DL?

[jamalshw]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And if the plan is for him to be on the roster just until Miley comes off the DL?

Or even until we need to call up a 5th starter (as I think the pen loses a guy before the bench does)...

[ChuckS]

3 to 1 odds Mancini gets the start.  No idea if it will be in RF or DH.  Depends on whose defense they feel better about in right between he and Trumbo. 

Gentry playing or Rickard sitting are possibilities but remote ones IMO.  

[Camden_yardbird]

Someone should tell Mancini he is not allowed back on to the field until he removes whatever the hell is on his upper lip.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

3 to 1 odds Mancini gets the start.  No idea if it will be in RF or DH.  Depends on whose defense they feel better about in right between he and Trumbo. 

Gentry playing or Rickard sitting are possibilities but remote ones IMO.  

So 1 to 3 odds?