Who starts tomorrow? Mancini or Gentry?

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So 1 to 3 odds?

Right.  Mancini -300 to start tomorrow.  

[Moondoggie]

27 minutes ago, dan-O said:

It's Camden Yards! You have a kid who can mash if you only find him a spot. Buck's not stupid - Craig Gentry has never had more than 287 PA in his ML career, his career high in home runs is TWO, he doesn't hit lefties all that well, and Mark Trumbo played RF for the majority of the previous season.

What Gentry DOES bring to the table is speed and defense, which are exactly what you want out of your extra outfielder. Gentry is not a platoon player, he's a BENCH player. And he's going to be a damn fine one probably! I like him! 

But do we really know that Mancini "can mash?" Our major league sample size is really small. And last year in his first season in AAA, he hit 13 home runs with a .775 OPS. There's nothing about his AAA production that screams "next Frank Robinson!" Or even "next Matt Adams!" for that matter. You're engaging in wishful thinking based on stats from the lower minors and general Orioles prospect overhype. But the guy is actually a C prospect. Nobody has seen anything special about him. If he were with almost any other club he wouldn't even be in the organizational Top 10. He looks to have a chance to carve out a big league career as a platoon and bench bat against lefties, but beyond that is just guesswork. Also, if you're serious about making an outfielder out of him (considering he's blocked from every other option for the next three years), he needs to be playing outfield at Norfolk. Of course that wouldn't preclude Buck from giving him a start or two before he gets sent down, but don't get used to it.

As for Gentry's speed and defense, that's probably more important in this lineup -- which has plenty of power hitters -- than another (presumed) power hitter.  There's a good reason why the Orioles brought in Bourne in August last year. Maybe Mancini will at least prove to be better than Trumbo out there, but he at least has to have some time to learn the position and get some experience. Gentry, of course, is a question mark because of the problems he's had with concussions over the past few seasons. But the last time he was in a full platoon role he put up OPS+ seasons of 102 and 109, which is above average. So he ain't chopped liver.

[Moondoggie]

Just now, dan-O said:

Yes. Yes, we do. 

As for that speed, it's better to choose when you want to use that speed, and you can only do that if Gentry is on the bench. 

You can't use it at all while Gentry is on the bench. If he's in the field, every single play is a potential for using his speed. And every time he gets on base. That's a lot more useful than sending him in as a pinch-runner and 8th-inning defensive replacement. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, dan-O said:

Yup, Trey Mancini: absolutely nothing special about him. Not one thing that he does is special. 

He's not on anyone's top 100 prospects list.    Sure he may prove those lists were wrong -- it happens all the time -- but there's also a good chance he won't.

 

 

[Moondoggie]

2 minutes ago, dan-O said:

Lol @ "nobody has seen anything special about him." That's rich. 

OK then, show me where anybody (except you) has seen anything special about him. He's not a top 100 prospect by anyone's estimation (you'd think a player recognized as special would at least be on the list). Every scouting report I've seen has him as a C prospect (you'd think special players would be A prospects). Here is his grading line from MLB (it's commensurate with everyone else's grades):

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50

So what's special there? Their scouting report says he has the potential to be a 20-home run guy someday (there were roughly 115 guys who hit 20 in the majors last year). And the scouting report also says: "Mancini doesn't have much athleticism to his frame and is a below-average runner, but he's worked hard to become at least a passable defender at first base."

This ain't Eddie Murray.

[Moondoggie]

6 minutes ago, dan-O said:

I disagree. I'd rather have the ability to actually hit a baseball for the majority of the game, and then use the speed when it matters the most. 

Speed matters the most on defense. Any idiot can run around the bases (not that it doesn't come in handy sometimes). But getting to balls that slower players can't reach and being able to make plays prevents runs.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Mancini is also an unproven talent, which we don't know how he will do in the bigs.

We believe he can and will do well, but until it happens, its all good intentions.

 

I agree with you. Starting him in the OF would be wrong way thinking. IMO. If they want to give Davis a break then play Mancini at 1st. Davis DH and Trumbo to RF. 

[flaoriolesfan]

I voted Mancini as I hope he starts because he could be gone in a couple of weeks and we know that Gentry can't be sent down without possibly losing him. I would like to see Mancini get some at bats while he is here.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, dan-O said:

Bottom line, if Mancini isn't in the starting line up tomorrow, kindly ban me. 

Would that be kind to you or the rest of us?

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, dan-O said:

But by all means, let's only use players that scouting reports unanimously like! Let's avoid giving a guy a chance because someone said his hit tool is 50 instead of 55. 

 

Nobody is making that argument.    You criticized a poster for saying Mancini wasn't "special."    We can all argue about how to define that word, but players who aren't considered special get chances all the time.   

[Moondoggie]

14 minutes ago, dan-O said:

Jesus man. Who cares about scouting grades on Trey Mancini at this point? Really?

He's hit in the minors, he's hit in brief stints in the majors. He clearly has power to all fields. I dunno what else there is really. 

I never said he was Eddie fucking Murray, obviously. He's at best a young Mark Trumbo-type player. He's a good right-handed DH with a lot to like in the bat department and some passable defensive skills. 

That said, if you're facing a left-handed starting pitcher, I want to see him bat over Gentry. That's it.

Scouting reports are pertinent because it demonstrates that scouts haven't seen anything special about him. And that's what I was replying to.

Again, in his entire AAA career (125 games), he has 13 home runs and a .775 OPS. What is there about that stat that makes you so cocksure that he's going to be anything close to Mark Trumbo? (Trumbo, by the way, hit 29 homers, drove in 122 and compiled a .945 OPS in his AAA season). He may have power to all fields, but it only resulted in 13 home runs in 536 plate appearances at Norfolk. In fact, he only has 54 home runs in four minor league seasons. So he's far from proving that he has "power to all fields" that will translate to the major leagues. And lots of guys have come up and done well in 15 at bats, then faded into oblivion. So you're living dangerously when you base your opinion of such a small sample size.

If you'd rather see Mancini bat, that's fine. But you were saying that absolutely Buck would rather have Mancini in right field than Gentry and acting as though all these things you're assuming are absolute facts. You're entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own facts. And no, we don't know that Mancini "can mash" at the major league level. We haven't had enough of a sample size to make that determination. That's only your opinion.

[wildcard]

These 6 pages show why Buck is saying he has a lot more depth than last year.

[tntoriole]

9 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

Scouting reports are pertinent because it demonstrates that scouts haven't seen anything special about him. And that's what I was replying to.

Again, in his entire AAA career (125 games), he has 13 home runs and a .775 OPS. What is there about that stat that makes you so cocksure that he's going to be anything close to Mark Trumbo? (Trumbo, by the way, hit 29 homers, drove in 122 and compiled a .945 OPS in his AAA season). He may have power to all fields, but it only resulted in 13 home runs in 536 plate appearances at Norfolk. In fact, he only has 54 home runs in four minor league seasons. So he's far from proving that he has "power to all fields" that will translate to the major leagues. And lots of guys have come up and done well in 15 at bats, then faded into oblivion. So you're living dangerously when you base your opinion of such a small sample size.

If you'd rather see Mancini bat, that's fine. But you were saying that absolutely Buck would rather have Mancini in right field than Gentry and acting as though all these things you're assuming are absolute facts. You're entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own facts. And no, we don't know that Mancini "can mash" at the major league level. We haven't had enough of a sample size to make that determination. That's only your opinion.

It is interesting how we all cite only the facts needed to bolster our argument.  You talk of his "entire AAA career"  which was part of last year 125 games at a park like Norfolk and you exclude the 17 games he had at Bowie where he hit an additional 7 homers.   If you combine his year at AAA and AA, then his stats go to 20 HRS and .815 OPS.  Plus he did then also hit 3 home runs in short sample at the major league level.  I have seen Trey play at Frederick, at Bowie and at Norfolk and late in the 2014 season he changed parts of his swing and has taken off since then.  There are guys who you see play and when the ball comes off their bat it makes a unique sound- Trumbo has that sound.  This kid has that sound of the ball coming off the bat.   I do not think he is going to be Paul Goldschmidt but I think he is going to be a much better major league hitter than many others on the board do.  

I think a lot of early scouting reports were not representative of the subsequent changes he made in his swing....

Scouting Report
Mancini has plus raw power and is likely to get to a good bit of it because, despite a stiff, upright swing, he has excellent hitter’s timing and has quieted aspects of his swing that turned off amateur evaluators. He projects to make an average amount of contact.

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

These 6 pages show why Buck is saying he has a lot more depth than last year.

But a lot of that depth is only on the team for the brief timeframe when we only have 3 starting pitchers on the roster.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

These 6 pages show why Buck is saying he has a lot more depth than last year.

I think these six pages show that Dan-O is reason resistant when it comes to this topic.