Miranda v. Miley

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, SteveA said:

And you do have to factor in ballparks as well.   If they were to put up near equal stats that would be advantage Miley, IMO.

If their stats were close to equal, I'd still consider it to be advantage Miranda because he's dirt cheap and under control for 5 years after this one.    But that would make Miley the better pitcher for 2017, which may or may not matter depending on how the rest of the team does.    

[CheeryO]

7 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

If you show me a single post where you anticipated Arrieta's breakout I'd give this post credence. But you can't. The guy surprised everyone.

Strop, meanwhile, is just an average relief pitcher. Feldman ate some innings for the O's in 2013, which is all they ever asked him to do. It wasn't his fault that the team didn't reach the playoffs that year.

I don't think you can say Arrieta surprised people that he broke out.  What was surprising was the timing.  He just happened to break out not long after he was traded.  Arrieta was a top prospect from early on.  Many top prospects take awhile, Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay being prime examples.  And like others have said, it's not that the O's traded Arrieta, it was how little they got back for him.  

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, CheeryO said:

I don't think you can say Arrieta surprised people that he broke out.  What was surprising was the timing.  He just happened to break out not long after he was traded.  Arrieta was a top prospect from early on.  Many top prospects take awhile, Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay being prime examples.  And like others have said, it's not that the O's traded Arrieta, it was how little they got back for him.  

Arrieta was damaged goods when he lost Baltimore. His turnaround is absolutely historic. He was 27 and had been given half a hundred starts in the majors and shown almost nothing. He's a crazy outlier.

[Frobby]

Miranda pitched a complete game yesterday, allowing 1 run on 4 hits, striking out 9.     

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Miranda pitched a complete game yesterday, allowing 1 run on 4 hits, striking out 9.     

Sometimes trades can be win-wins.  Miley is 8th overall in ERA this year.  

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sometimes trades can be win-wins.  Miley is 8th overall in ERA this year.  

Wade Miley costs $8,916,668, has 2 wins and has averaged 5.7 IP a start and has been worth 1.7 WAR in 2017.
Miranda costs       $541,000,    has 6 wins and has averaged 5.6 IP a start and has been worth 1.5 WAR in 2017.

Since the Trade:

Miranda has won 11 games and been worth 2.4 WAR.
Miley has won 4 games and been worth 0.4 WAR.

Considering that Miranda costs $8,375,000 less this year and is under team control at a cost efficient manner for another 4-5 seasons and I'd say the Mariners won this trade and more. Sure, Miranda has been dominant in hitter friendly Safeco Field and not good on the road, but it sure does make you wonder why they didn't give Miranda a try in the rotation before trading him away?

Miley has been decent this year, but this trade along with horrible Davies-Parra trade are two trades where it appears they Orioles mis evaluated there own potential in house starters. They felt Davies and Miranda were expendable because of Wilson and Wright. I'd say Duquette is either making poor decisions or getting bad advice or both.

Why trade away potential cheaper 4th/5th starters when the alternatives are expensive 4th/5th starters in Miley/Jimenez/Gallardo.

Miley seemed like a salary dump move by the Mariners. Not sure how they ended up getting a cheap, cost controlled starter for a guy they wanted off their roster besides the Orioles mis evaluating their own talent.

 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wade Miley costs $8,916,668, has 2 wins and has averaged 5.7 IP a start and has been worth 1.7 WAR in 2017.
Miranda costs       $541,000,    has 6 wins and has averaged 5.6 IP a start and has been worth 1.5 WAR in 2017.

Since the Trade:

Miranda has won 11 games and been worth 2.4 WAR.
Miley has won 4 games and been worth 0.4 WAR.

Considering that Miranda costs $8,375,000 less this year and is under team control at a cost efficient manner for another 4-5 seasons and I'd say the Mariners won this trade and more. Sure, Miranda has been dominant in hitter friendly Safeco Field and not good on the road, but it sure does make you wonder why they didn't give Miranda a try in the rotation before trading him away?

Miley has been decent this year, but this trade along with horrible Davies-Parra trade are two trades where it appears they Orioles mis evaluated there own potential in house starters. They felt Davies and Miranda were expendable because of Wilson and Wright. I'd say Duquette is either making poor decisions or getting bad advice or both.

Why trade away potential cheaper 4th/5th starters when the alternatives are expensive 4th/5th starters in Miley/Jimenez/Gallardo.

Miley seemed like a salary dump move by the Mariners. Not sure how they ended up getting a cheap, cost controlled starter for a guy they wanted off their roster besides the Orioles mis evaluating their own talent.

 

Miranda has a 2.02 ERA at home this year.  Safeco is a huge park.  He has a 5.68 ERA on the road this year.  What kind of an ERA do you think he would have in Camden Yards?

[Going Underground]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wade Miley costs $8,916,668, has 2 wins and has averaged 5.7 IP a start and has been worth 1.7 WAR in 2017.
Miranda costs       $541,000,    has 6 wins and has averaged 5.6 IP a start and has been worth 1.5 WAR in 2017.

Since the Trade:

Miranda has won 11 games and been worth 2.4 WAR.
Miley has won 4 games and been worth 0.4 WAR.

Considering that Miranda costs $8,375,000 less this year and is under team control at a cost efficient manner for another 4-5 seasons and I'd say the Mariners won this trade and more. Sure, Miranda has been dominant in hitter friendly Safeco Field and not good on the road, but it sure does make you wonder why they didn't give Miranda a try in the rotation before trading him away?

Miley has been decent this year, but this trade along with horrible Davies-Parra trade are two trades where it appears they Orioles mis evaluated there own potential in house starters. They felt Davies and Miranda were expendable because of Wilson and Wright. I'd say Duquette is either making poor decisions or getting bad advice or both.

Why trade away potential cheaper 4th/5th starters when the alternatives are expensive 4th/5th starters in Miley/Jimenez/Gallardo.

Miley seemed like a salary dump move by the Mariners. Not sure how they ended up getting a cheap, cost controlled starter for a guy they wanted off their roster besides the Orioles mis evaluating their own talent.

 

Davies is an interesting case. 8 of his 12 starts has given up three runs or less. First two starts were bad but has been pretty good after that. Does not work deep, around six innings. I noticed some games even when he is pitching well ,they take him out after 80 to 90 pitches. Maybe they have a pitch limit on him this year and are trying to limit innings.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wade Miley costs $8,916,668, has 2 wins and has averaged 5.7 IP a start and has been worth 1.7 WAR in 2017.
Miranda costs       $541,000,    has 6 wins and has averaged 5.6 IP a start and has been worth 1.5 WAR in 2017.

Since the Trade:

Miranda has won 11 games and been worth 2.4 WAR.
Miley has won 4 games and been worth 0.4 WAR.

Considering that Miranda costs $8,375,000 less this year and is under team control at a cost efficient manner for another 4-5 seasons and I'd say the Mariners won this trade and more. Sure, Miranda has been dominant in hitter friendly Safeco Field and not good on the road, but it sure does make you wonder why they didn't give Miranda a try in the rotation before trading him away?

Miley has been decent this year, but this trade along with horrible Davies-Parra trade are two trades where it appears they Orioles mis evaluated there own potential in house starters. They felt Davies and Miranda were expendable because of Wilson and Wright. I'd say Duquette is either making poor decisions or getting bad advice or both.

Why trade away potential cheaper 4th/5th starters when the alternatives are expensive 4th/5th starters in Miley/Jimenez/Gallardo.

Miley seemed like a salary dump move by the Mariners. Not sure how they ended up getting a cheap, cost controlled starter for a guy they wanted off their roster besides the Orioles mis evaluating their own talent.

 

I'll just say this: at the time of the trade, 89% of the posters polled liked the trade.     You were not particularly high on Miranda based on your posts about him, though you said the only time you saw him pitch was in his relief appearance for the Orioles.   Bottom line, so far he's been much better than anyone expected him to be.    

[tntoriole]

DD has accumulated more than a few negatives on the side of choices on which GMs are judged to keep them in their positions.  He has had positives which are discussed in other threads and the Orioles have won a lot of games during his tenure.  However, in the last few years (and including the Toronto dalliance) his balance sheet has slipped to the "not renewed" category in my mind if I am the owner.   

The trades are one issue.  And there is a lot of leeway for me involving trades that go one way or the other.  But I was in the re-sign Nelson Cruz camp unlike many on this board which would have prevented the Trumbo addition and contract and I think that was a mistake.  I think releasing Miggy Gonzalez for absolutely no return (not even letting it play out whether he could pitch at Norfolk or not before doing a salary dump trade if he still wanted to) was a mistake.  I think that the Ubaldo signing was a mistake.  I think the bidding against ourselves for Davis (although probably ownership driven) was a mistake.   And the Parra trade for Davies was a mistake.  I really had less problem with Arrieta, had no problem with getting Andrew Miller for EdRod, though I wish they had taken the risk of giving him the money to keep him, obviously.

But the one for DD that is the elephant in the room is Manny.   The fate of the Orioles as an organization for the next 5 years or more will hinge in large part on what happens to Manny.  I know that DD doesn't make that decision, however, if I am a GM, it is the decision over which I am strongest in making my case (whatever I believe that case to be.)    And, that door I believe has already been closed.  That perhaps a hugely risky deal at the time after he injured his knees to extend and buy out years may have been the play, but it didn't happen.   So, now, I believe Manny MUST be traded, but, if he is not, and DD and Buck just walk away, and the Orioles get a second or third round pick period....well, the ramifications will be felt for years to come.  

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'll just say this: at the time of the trade, 89% of the posters polled liked the trade.     You were not particularly high on Miranda based on your posts about him, though you said the only time you saw him pitch was in his relief appearance for the Orioles.   Bottom line, so far he's been much better than anyone expected him to be.    

The probable rebuttal to this is that Duquette has a lot more zeroes on his paycheck because he gets paid to be right more than not.  You can make the argument that Duquette feels that Mirandas are always available for free so having Miley and his slightly better performance is a net win, but that's probably the only defensible argument for Duquette.  It does play into his apparent strength of finding value on the trash heap.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The probable rebuttal to this is that Duquette has a lot more zeroes on his paycheck because he gets paid to be right more than not.  

And that's completely fair comment.   Another fair comment is that Tony develops his opinions in part based on what he hears from those in the organization -- and maybe some of those people aren't doing their jobs very well.    

That said, I still want to see where things stand at the end of the season.   

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'll just say this: at the time of the trade, 89% of the posters polled liked the trade.     You were not particularly high on Miranda based on your posts about him, though you said the only time you saw him pitch was in his relief appearance for the Orioles.   Bottom line, so far he's been much better than anyone expected him to be.    

What does any of that have to do with what I said? My point was, the Orioles are not making good evaluations of their own minor league talent. They are keeping guys like Wilson and Wright while giving away Davies and Miranda. 

I was starting to hear better things on Miranda but never saw him pitch until his relief outing which he flashed decent stuff but made some mistakes. My reports on the positive about him came from outside the organization. 

If I'm wrong or the community is wrong, that really doesn't matter because none of us our paid to make these evaluations. This is two young starters that they've traded away that were the most ready clearly to be effective big league starters. The Orioles see these guys every single day and they are paid to make these evaluations.

I know they have some good evaluators, I just wonder if their voices are drowned out by others with more influence with DD. 

[MDtransplant757]

I'm still a fan of this trade. Miranda did well in pitchers parks like Norfolk when his stuff was working, and was serviceable in hitters parks when his stuff was working in AAA. Overall Miley is the better pitcher, and Miranda at best is a 5th starter/ Swingman. Miley has done well in against our division this year, which is what we need, whereas I doubt Miranda could. If Miley continues to do well, I'll call it a success. If he's average and so is miranda, I'll call it a wash. Unless Miley becomes Lousiana's version of Ubaldo Jimenez, I'll call it a good trade

[MDtransplant757]

That and I will never understand the fascination with Hader on this board. Guy is a BP arm at best, and gets his bum handed to him anytime he nears AAA