Keith Law Chat - Wednesday 6/4

[Double062]

Here are some O's excerpts:

Steve (PA): Assuming Beckham and Alvarez are gone, would Smoak be an overdraft for the O's at 4? Seems like the best for their farm system.

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:13 PM ET ) Not at all - legit middle-of-the-order bat. But I'm hearing Matusz very strongly there.

-------

[Moose Milligan]

Grumble.

While I know Matsuz will be good, I really want us to stockpile some bats. Really want Smoak.

[elrod7]

Matusz just doesn't excite me the way Smoak, Hosmer, and T Beckham do

[ShoelesJoe]

I'm hoping all these "Orioles are hot for Matsuz" reports are really disinformation campaigns by the O's brass designed to sucker the Pirates or Royals into taking him instead of Beckham, Smoak, or Alvarez. Unless Jordon thinks Matsuz is going to be as dominant as Randy Johnson, or Smoak is going to be little more than the next David Segui, I can't see a #2 southpaw starter being more valuable to this organization than a middle of the order switch-hitting gold glove first baseman.

For various reasons a year ago few of the pundits thought Wieters would be an Oriole, so I'm hoping they're just as wrong this year.

[SoBo]

If Matusz is Jordan's #1 on the board, then I'm fine with it. My uneducated opinion would be to take Smoak, simply for need. But AM has made it clear that he likes pitching and his draft philosophy is not built around need. So if Matusz is the pick, moving some of our young pitching depth for a bat in the off-season seems very likely. I could live with a 2010 rotation of...

Guthrie

Dcab

Tillman

Arrieta

Matusz

:D:D:D:D:D:D

[bigbird]

All reports say this it s position heavy draft. If you have a chance to grab the best pitcher available you do it and snag bat in Round #2. Lot of 1B available in this draft.

[JTrea81]

All reports say this it s position heavy draft. If you have a chance to grab the best pitcher available you do it and snag bat in Round #2. Lot of 1B available in this draft.

Normally I'd agree with you, but the Orioles can't afford to risk a pick on a pitcher which is a much riskier pick than a college 1B man like Smoak. Smoak will likely be a Teixeira type player. Matusz could blow out his arm or have injury problems just like Loewen. The Orioles track record of selecting pitchers in the first round hasn't exactly worked out either. I'd say the chances of Smoak becoming another Tex vs. Matsuz becoming a Pettite are much greater. In addition Matusz and Crow are slipping on draft boards because the position talent is that much better. You can't pass up on great positional talent just to select a pitcher. The draft is deep but it's not deep enough to warrant passing up Smoak, Beckham or Alvarez.

If none of them is there though, I agree Matusz would probably be the best pick, but only if better positional players are off the board.

[hoosiers]

Normally I'd agree with you, but the Orioles can't afford to risk a pick on a pitcher which is a much riskier pick than a college 1B man like Smoak. Smoak will likely be a Teixeira type player. Matusz could blow out his arm or have injury problems just like Loewen. The Orioles track record of selecting pitchers in the first round hasn't exactly worked out either. I'd say the chances of Smoak becoming another Tex vs. Matsuz becoming a Pettite are much greater. In addition Matusz and Crow are slipping on draft boards because the position talent is that much better. You can't pass up on great positional talent just to select a pitcher. The draft is deep but it's not deep enough to warrant passing up Smoak, Beckham or Alvarez.

If none of them is there though, I agree Matusz would probably be the best pick, but only if better positional players are off the board.

I have a lot of problems with the mis-information and leading assumptions in this thread.

First, to hint that Smoak is going to be Tex, but that Matu will be an injury risk is fear-mongering.

Second, the only first round selection (supplemental first actually) pitching selection of Joe Jordan was Olson and that picked turned out fine. The next highest college pitching selections of Jordan were Bascom and Arrietta and we seem to be doing pretty well there with JA at least.

[Delbird]

I'm hoping all these "Orioles are hot for Matsuz" reports are really disinformation campaigns by the O's brass designed to sucker the Pirates or Royals into taking him instead of Beckham, Smoak, or Alvarez. Unless Jordon thinks Matsuz is going to be as dominant as Randy Johnson, or Smoak is going to be little more than the next David Segui, I can't see a #2 southpaw starter being more valuable to this organization than a middle of the order switch-hitting gold glove first baseman.

For various reasons a year ago few of the pundits thought Wieters would be an Oriole, so I'm hoping they're just as wrong this year.

I wouldn't think the MLB draft is like the NFL draft where disinformation is sent out much, considering that trades of picks can't be made. You can't bait a team into taking someone by jumping ahead of you. I doubt the other teams ahead of the O's would reconsider Matusz only because the O's were 'hot' for him. If they like him best, they'll take him, otherwise the won't. Based on that, it seems like the O's being in on Matusz is likely real information.

[Sports Guy]

All reports say this it s position heavy draft. If you have a chance to grab the best pitcher available you do it and snag bat in Round #2. Lot of 1B available in this draft.

But their is no consensus best pitcher...There is no Price this year.

[CrimsonTribe]

But their is no consensus best pitcher...There is no Price this year.

BB has a point though. If we have a plan where we think we can get a good 1B later in the draft that we don't rate significantly lower than Smoak/Hosmer, then we could end up w/ the guy we rate as the best pitcher and a strong 1B prospect. All in all I'll trust Jordan, MacPhail, and the crew's judgment.

[JTrea81]

I have a lot of problems with the mis-information and leading assumptions in this thread.

First, to hint that Smoak is going to be Tex, but that Matu will be an injury risk is fear-mongering.

Second, the only first round selection (supplemental first actually) pitching selection of Joe Jordan was Olson and that picked turned out fine. The next highest college pitching selections of Jordan were Bascom and Arrietta and we seem to be doing pretty well there with JA at least.

The point is you can get a pitcher that could be as good as Matsuz in the later rounds as we've seen from Arrieta. It's harder to find a bat like Smoak Alvarez or Beckham. You hear a lot about a high first round pitching talent slipping to the later rounds due to injury and or signability concerns. You don't often see a case of a high first round bat slipping to the second or third round because of the same issues.

[wayne25]

I have a lot of problems with the mis-information and leading assumptions in this thread.

First, to hint that Smoak is going to be Tex, but that Matu will be an injury risk is fear-mongering.

Second, the only first round selection (supplemental first actually) pitching selection of Joe Jordan was Olson and that picked turned out fine. The next highest college pitching selections of Jordan were Bascom and Arrietta and we seem to be doing pretty well there with JA at least.

It is not fear mongering, its factual that pitchers are only a pitch away from never producing.Why do you think the Orioles haven't produced a good pitcher in the 1st or 2nd round since Mussina some15 years ago? You generally do not have to worry about this with position players. For it not to factore in, is just plain dumb. As far as Smoak, I haven't seen one report where ANYONE disputes his great upside. Does he have to prove it , or course, but you can't compare the risk factors.

[Mackus]

You hear a lot about a high first round pitching talent slipping to the later rounds due to injury and or signability concerns. You don't often see a case of a high first round bat slipping to the second or third round because of the same issues.

You might not hear about it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't drop.

Players with big demands drop. We can get early round talent in mid rounds, both positional and pitching, if we don't mind paying early round money.

[wayne25]

All reports say this it s position heavy draft. If you have a chance to grab the best pitcher available you do it and snag bat in Round #2. Lot of 1B available in this draft.

Just because its position heavy, you don't ignore the fact that there is no "lights out, sure thing, man does this guy have fantasic stuff, type pitcher in this draft. If there were he'd would not get to #4. Matusz and Crow have big question marks, factoring in the injury risk, you go with an impact bat, of which there are at least 4.