Keith Law Chat - Wednesday 6/4

[mcgraw238]

I'm not sure what the point is here.

I've defended Matusz as a worthy selection for the Orioles as much as anyone here.

My preferences for the Os are, in order, TBeck, Hosmer and Matu/Smoak.

I was trying to support you. I pulled the wrong quote.

[Mackus]

All of this talk about Matusz and Smoak is making me sick...I wouldn't touch either of them. This is gonna be a bad day.

You are the first person i've heard that doesn't like Smoak. Why is that?

[Sports Guy]

You are the first person i've heard that doesn't like Smoak. Why is that?

His name.....

[tywright]

4. Baltimore -- Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Word today has the Orioles preferring Matusz. Crow is also a strong possibility here, and the Orioles were willing to pay over slot last year. If the Royals pass on Hosmer for some reason (e.g., Pittsburgh takes Posey and K.C. takes Alvarez), the Orioles would likely switch up and take Hosmer.

First I've heard us be interested in Hosmer... not that excited about that.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/insider/news/story?id=3426919

[JJLinn29]

His name.....

Certainly doesn't help matters in all seriousness. I see Mike Hessman written all over him..

If Alvarez and Beckham are gone, I want Crow.

[JTrea81]

4. Baltimore -- Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Word today has the Orioles preferring Matusz. Crow is also a strong possibility here, and the Orioles were willing to pay over slot last year. If the Royals pass on Hosmer for some reason (e.g., Pittsburgh takes Posey and K.C. takes Alvarez), the Orioles would likely switch up and take Hosmer.

First I've heard us be interested in Hosmer... not that excited about that.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/insider/news/story?id=3426919

Especially with the failure of all our 1st round HS bats we've picked to date...

I hate the fact that we are going to leave Smoak on the board. Matusz had better be another Pettite...

[Mackus]

Certainly doesn't help matters in all seriousness.

Judging a player based on his name is the direct opposite of seriousness.

Its ridiculousness.

[tywright]

Especially with the failure of all our 1st round HS bats we've picked to date...

Bingo

I think the success of Wieters so far will change Jordan's philosophy a little and help him guide his decision of drafting Smoak.

[Mackus]

Bingo

I think the success of Wieters so far will change Jordan's philosophy a little and help him guide his decision of drafting Smoak.

I think Jordan, and rightly so, will just pick the guy he thinks is best. Past failures of any type of player, HS bat, HS arm, college bat, college arm won't and shouldn't come into play.

If Jordan or MacPhail were worried about our coaches being able to develop HS bats, they'd fire the coaches. This is absolutely zero concern to them.

[JTrea81]

I think Jordan, and rightly so, will just pick the guy he thinks is best. Past failures of any type of player, HS bat, HS arm, college bat, college arm won't and shouldn't come into play.

What if the failure of our HS bats is directly related to the fact our minor league hitting instruction sucks. Just look at all the HS bats that we've drafted including under Jordan. How many have made it to the majors or even AA? I find it hard to believe all those draft picks were all busts because they were not talented...

[glenn__davis]

What if the failure of our HS bats is directly related to the fact our minor league hitting instruction sucks. Just look at all the HS bats that we've drafted including under Jordan. How many have made it to the majors or even AA? I find it hard to believe all those draft picks were all busts because they were not talented...

A HS bat drafted in 2005 wouldn't even be projected to here yet following a standard career path.

[Mackus]

What if the failure of our HS bats is directly related to the fact our minor league hitting instruction sucks. Just look at all the HS bats that we've drafted including under Jordan. How many have made it to the majors or even AA? I find it hard to believe all those draft picks were all busts because they were not talented...

Wouldn't the college bats also be struggling if the instruction was so terrible?

HS bats are risky picks. The ones that develop usually are very good, but most of them don't.

Also, a HS bat drafted in 2005 if they are progressing at a better than average clip would probably be at Bowie by now if not still only at Frederick.

[tywright]

What if the failure of our HS bats is directly related to the fact our minor league hitting instruction sucks. Just look at all the HS bats that we've drafted including under Jordan. How many have made it to the majors or even AA? I find it hard to believe all those draft picks were all busts because they were not talented...

Rowell, Henson and Kolodny will be the new case studies of how our minor league hitting instructors have improved or vice versa.

Usually the HS busts are guys who can't hit breaking stuff or have poor plate awareness....and this is demonstrated by the time they hit A ball. That's why everybody is worried about Rowell.

[tywright]

Wouldn't the college bats also be struggling if the instruction was so terrible?

HS bats are risky picks. The ones that develop usually are very good, but most of them don't.

Also, a HS bat drafted in 2005 if they are progressing at a better than average clip would probably be at Bowie by now if not still only at Frederick.

And HS bats don't see the stuff that college batters see on a regular basis from top college pitchers. HS pitchers have terrible stuff compared to A ball pitchers. That's why you can't accurately scout a HS bat because you don't know if they can hit breaking stuff, plus they are killing every mistake in the zone.

[CrimsonTribe]

Yea...Or we could end up with the best 1b prospect in the draft and a comparable pitcher in round 2...Again, we could do this for every pitcher...The concept is correct but can be used for every position.

So, what we need to do is take the best player we have on our board whenever it is our turn to pick.

Bigbird, btw, read the Sun article I linked to in this forum...One guy on there with some doubts about Matusz.

You're right. It could really go either way. Like I said, all we can do is trust the guys in charge.