It's time for a change

[AZRon]

A quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

Prior to tonight's game against the Blue Jays, the Orioles had 30 of them in 76 games.  That ranked 12th in the AL, just ahead of the Twins' 29 of 75 games, and 3 ahead of the team with the fewest, the White Sox who have played 76 games.  The Red Sox lead with 43 quality starts in 77 games.

Here's the record for the current rotation:

                          GS   QS 
Dylan Bundy      16     12
Wade Miley        16      5
Kevin Gausman 17      4
Ubaldo Jimenez 10      2
Chris Tillman      10      2

Even with the weakened back end of the bullpen, I believe the O's would have won at least 3 more games given an additional 3 quality starts.  That would mean a middling 33 quality starts and a 41 and 35 record. Heck, even Alec Asher had 3 quality starts in the 6 games that he started.

Anyone care to do the research under various scenarios of reliever effectiveness?

So, if you are supposed to be a major league starting pitcher (or getting paid like one) and you fail to deliver a quality start in 70 to 80% of your starts, do you make a major adjustment in your approach?  To date, I've seen Gausman change his position on the rubber, increase the use of his split while reducing the use of the slider and, maybe, lower his arm angle. I've seen no adjustments from Miley and Tillman and, as for Jimenez, forget it; he either cannot or will not change.

If I'm in field management (pitching coach or manager) or general management (Duquette), I demand that you change your approach (physical and mental) or we'll change you out.

[MDtransplant757]

Tillman is just done. Ubaldo is gone after this year. Miley might be gone after this year. We'll build the rotation back. Bring in Alex Cobb, Yu Darvish if we keep Miley. Maybe bring up Lucas long

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, AZRon said:

A quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

Prior to tonight's game against the Blue Jays, the Orioles had 30 of them in 76 games.  That ranked 12th in the AL, just ahead of the Twins' 29 of 75 games, and 3 ahead of the team with the fewest, the White Sox who have played 76 games.  The Red Sox lead with 43 quality starts in 77 games.

Here's the record for the current rotation:

                          GS   QS 
Dylan Bundy      16     12
Wade Miley        16      5
Kevin Gausman 17      4
Ubaldo Jimenez 10      2
Chris Tillman      10      2

Even with the weakened back end of the bullpen, I believe the O's would have won at least 3 more games given an additional 3 quality starts.  That would mean a middling 33 quality starts and a 41 and 35 record. Heck, even Alec Asher had 3 quality starts in the 6 games that he started.

Anyone care to do the research under various scenarios of reliever effectiveness?

So, if you are supposed to be a major league starting pitcher (or getting paid like one) and you fail to deliver a quality start in 70 to 80% of your starts, do you make a major adjustment in your approach?  

So the best team in the league is at 56%, and you're setting 70-80% as your threshold for demanding changes?   Good luck with that!    I wonder how many pitchers in MLB meet that standard?

In any event, these pitchers have all the incentive in the world to be as good as they can be, and the team has all the incentive in the world to replace them if they have someone they think might be better.     But we don't have good options.   

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Tillman is just done. Ubaldo is gone after this year. Miley might be gone after this year. We'll build the rotation back. Bring in Alex Cobb, Yu Darvish if we keep Miley. Maybe bring up Lucas long

Darvish? Angelos is not going to spend for a TOR starter. 

[sportsfan8703]

We will see band aids this offseason and retreads. Our best hope is that Harvey and DL Hall can be up here in 2 years. 

[Phantom]

8 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Tillman is just done. Ubaldo is gone after this year. Miley might be gone after this year. We'll build the rotation back. Bring in Alex Cobb, Yu Darvish if we keep Miley. Maybe bring up Lucas long

You have any idea what Yu Darvish is going to cost?

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So the best team in the league is at 56%, and you're setting 70-80% as your threshold for demanding changes?   Good luck with that!    I wonder how many pitchers in MLB meet that standard?

In any event, these pitchers have all the incentive in the world to be as good as they can be, and the team has all the incentive in the world to replace them if they have someone they think might be better.     But we don't have good options.   

No, he is saying that our current rotation is not getting QS 70-80% of the time. The bar is 20%. Right now we have two guys at 20% and 3 guys below 30%.

[AZRon]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So the best team in the league is at 56%, and you're setting 70-80% as your threshold for demanding changes?   Good luck with that!    I wonder how many pitchers in MLB meet that standard?

In any event, these pitchers have all the incentive in the world to be as good as they can be, and the team has all the incentive in the world to replace them if they have someone they think might be better.     But we don't have good options.   

There are 103 pitchers with starts listed here: AL starting pitchers QS

93 have better than 20% quality starts; 87 have 30% or better. Even Yovani Gallardo has 29%.

As I have posted before, even with the O's volatile offense, their below average outfield defense and their weakened backend of the bullpen, a small performance improvement in the starting pitching would have placed them in a better competitve position.

As to incentives, "human nature" (even that of millionaire MLB pitching veterans) is to resist change. However, there are exceptional examples that have yielded positive results: Marcus Stroman, Luis Tiant, Cliff Lee, Jamie Moyer, etc.

As to our lack of "good options" (I assume you're referring to the menagerie of Duquette acquisitions and the O's minor league "prospects"), the results by cycling through that tangle might prove better -- even Tyler Wilson and Jason Aquino threw quality starts in their only opportunities and Alec Asher has a 50% success rate in his starts.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

No, he is saying that our current rotation is not getting QS 70-80% of the time. The bar is 20%. Right now we have two guys at 20% and 3 guys below 30%.

Ah, that makes more sense.   The wording of the sentence was a bit ambiguous and I misunderstood his intent.   

Overall, I still don't think the problem here is that these pitchers are too stubborn about their approach.     

[spiritof66]

9 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Tillman is just done. Ubaldo is gone after this year. Miley might be gone after this year. We'll build the rotation back. Bring in Alex Cobb, Yu Darvish if we keep Miley. Maybe bring up Lucas long

For better or worse, I am pretty sure any significant improvement in the starters will come from growing young arms -- those acquired in the draft or through trades for one of our valuable assets like Manny or Britton or Brach. 

[AZRon]

Here's the record on quality starts for the current rotation:

                          GS   QS       %
Dylan Bundy      17     12   70.6
Wade Miley        17      5    29.4
Kevin Gausman 18      5    27.8
Ubaldo Jiménez 11      3    27.3
Chris Tillman      11      2    18.2

Currently, 66 AL pitchers (with 8 or more starts) have quality starts in a minimum of 40% of their starts; the O's have only Bundy.  The list includes Andrew Triggs and Ariel Miranda.  If you lower the bar to 30% (except for Bundy, none of the current O's starters meet this low bar), add 10 more pitchers, including Miguel Gonzalez.

We'll see if Kevin Gausman has "turned the corner" -- at least he has made some changes: his position on the rubber, his arm angle, and reduction/elimination of his weak slider.

I continue to plead for major approach changes for Miley, Tillman and Jiménez.  Take more time or less time between pitches, pause at some point in the windup, throw all pitches from the stretch, point the glove hand toward the target; change the pitch target;  turn back to home plate prior to the pitch delivery; etc.

Substitute from the Duquette menagerie for those unable or unwilling to attempt change.

[eddie83]

54 minutes ago, AZRon said:

Here's the record on quality starts for the current rotation:

                          GS   QS       %
Dylan Bundy      17     12   70.6
Wade Miley        17      5    29.4
Kevin Gausman 18      5    27.8
Ubaldo Jiménez 11      3    27.3
Chris Tillman      11      2    18.2

Currently, 66 AL pitchers (with 8 or more starts) have quality starts in a minimum of 40% of their starts; the O's have only Bundy.  The list includes Andrew Triggs and Ariel Miranda.  If you lower the bar to 30% (except for Bundy, none of the current O's starters meet this low bar), add 10 more pitchers, including Miguel Gonzalez.

We'll see if Kevin Gausman has "turned the corner" -- at least he has made some changes: his position on the rubber, his arm angle, and reduction/elimination of his weak slider.

I continue to plead for major approach changes for Miley, Tillman and Jiménez.  Take more time or less time between pitches, pause at some point in the windup, throw all pitches from the stretch, point the glove hand toward the target; change the pitch target;  turn back to home plate prior to the pitch delivery; etc.

Substitute from the Duquette menagerie for those unable or unwilling to attempt change.

My thing is the three guys you mention aren't exactly youngsters.  They should know their mechanics better than anyone plus have the experience.  

[AZRon]

27 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

My thing is the three guys you mention aren't exactly youngsters.  They should know their mechanics better than anyone plus have the experience.  

So, you're saying: if what you doing isn't working -- keep doing it?

Baseball history is replete with "veteran" pitchers making successful adjustments in order to regain or improve their effectiveness  later in their careers.  That same history is also full of "veteran" pitchers who failed to regain their former effectiveness because they were unwilling or unable to make the necessary adjustments.

Command slips, control fades, breaking ball sharpness dulls, velocity dips, pitch tells are noted and broadcast, etc.  As I said in the opening post -- it's time for a change.

 

[webbrick2010]

It's time to DFA 3/5 of the starting rotation

[Tx Oriole]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

It's time to DFA 3/5 of the starting rotation

And replace them with whom?