Is There A Path to 88 Wins for the O's?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

How likely? Less than 5%. So not very would be an understatement.

Are they good enough? If every single thing goes right, and they stay healthy....yes. Hence the 5% or less. 

 

Very realistic take.    Stranger things have happened, but I wouldn't hold my breath.    If the team claws back to .500 we can think about how much higher they might go.

[DirtyBird]

46-28. Not possible.

[sportsfan8703]

I think it's only going to take 84-85 wins to win the 2nd WC spot. The teams are just too flawed. 

We are four games back and we have the worst pitching and are in the bottom of the AL in most offensive stats. If we get some SP and guys like Machado, Trumbo and Davis heat up, we have a chance. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Norfolk orioles said:

Gausman has the worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

Wade Miley has the second worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

If Tillman had enough innings, he'd blow the doors off both of them for worst rotation starter in baseball with a WHIP over 2.

 

Did I mention Ubaldo is our other starter?

 

There is a zero point zero chance this team can string enough quality starts together to become a wild card team. 

I don't even think .500 is realistic with pitching like this.

I actually hate it when people talk in absolutes about baseball.   So, I pose a simple question:    Assume a starting rotation has a 5.61 ERA over 105 games.    Are the odds that the rotation will have a 3.15 ERA for the rest of the season zero point zero?     No, they're not, because WE ACTUALLY SAW THIS HAPPEN.    THIS DECADE.   TO OUR TEAM.

Do I expect that kind of turnaround from our rotation?   No.   But the odds aren't zero point zero.     

[Norfolk orioles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I actually hate it when people talk in absolutes about baseball.   So, I pose a simple question:    Assume a starting rotation has a 5.61 ERA over 105 games.    Are the odds that the rotation will have a 3.15 ERA for the rest of the season zero point zero?     No, they're not, because WE ACTUALLY SAW THIS HAPPEN.    THIS DECADE.   TO OUR TEAM.

Do I expect that kind of turnaround from our rotation?   No.   But the odds aren't zero point zero.     

We've never seen this exact group of pitchers have a 3.15 era.

Tillman is clearly pitching through something or completely washed up. 

Ubaldo is easily the most frustrating pitcher in all of baseball.

Wade Miley is going full on Bud Norris and getting worse as the season progresses (yesterday's outing was at least a positive step).

Gausman has seen a total regression from the guy we saw last year but I'd say he's the most likely pitcher we have to catch fire in the second half.

The league has adjusted to Bundy and his 7 era in June/July indicates that very clearly. He was bad at the end of last season as well so I have no idea what to expect from him in the second half.

I'm sorry but the odds of this team playing .600 or better baseball the entire second half are 0.0 to me.

Not in a division with the Sox and Yanks and a surging Rays team.

Plus we can't win on the road or beat anyone out of the division. It's not happening.

[LookitsPuck]

No. Even if the required W stat to make playoffs is 86, I'd say the chance is 5% or less.

Don't forget for a second that this rotation has Ubaldo, Miley, an 88-89mph Tillman, a Bundy who has pitched similar innings to 2016 already and an enigmatic Gausman. With no depth. 

[Babypowder]

29 minutes ago, Norfolk orioles said:

We've never seen this exact group of pitchers have a 3.15 era.

Tillman is clearly pitching through something or completely washed up. 

Ubaldo is easily the most frustrating pitcher in all of baseball.

Wade Miley is going full on Bud Norris and getting worse as the season progresses (yesterday's outing was at least a positive step).

Gausman has seen a total regression from the guy we saw last year but I'd say he's the most likely pitcher we have to catch fire in the second half.

The league has adjusted to Bundy and his 7 era in June/July indicates that very clearly. He was bad at the end of last season as well so I have no idea what to expect from him in the second half.

I'm sorry but the odds of this team playing .600 or better baseball the entire second half are 0.0 to me.

Not in a division with the Sox and Yanks and a surging Rays team.

Plus we can't win on the road or beat anyone out of the division. It's not happening.

Was it? The results were fortuitous yes, but Miley allowed 11 baserunners in 5.2. Same old Miley to me.

[Moose Milligan]

Let's not forget whatever crappy 5th starter Dan gets us at the deadline.  

[Cumberbundy]

3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

An AL team will need 88 wins or so to earn a wildcard slot. Coming out of the All Star break, the O's will need to go 46-28 to finish with 88 games.

How likely are the Orioles to go 46-28 the rest of the way? Are they good enough to even come close? 

There is a better chance you see Phil Wood walking the catwalk at a Burberry fashion show while Dan Duquette covers Ace of Base hits. 

[Cumberbundy]

It's not particularly easy to envision a 2 game winning streak. Will we ever have the superior starter in back to back games? Any games? ☹️

[O's84]

Is it really good idea to bet on a long shot and miss out on trading off assets for the future? No, of course not.  Unless they rip off a big run to close the break it's a foolish decision.

[Cumberbundy]

I think an issue is the baseballs are definitely juiced and we really struggle to miss bats. "Pitching to contact" is becoming life threatening. Degrom hit a 425 ft opposite field HR in Washington, the ball ain't right.

[El Gordo]

6 minutes ago, Cumberbundy said:

I think an issue is the baseballs are definitely juiced and we really struggle to miss bats. "Pitching to contact" is becoming life threatening. Degrom hit a 425 ft opposite field HR in Washington, the ball ain't right.

The ball is within the MLB parameters for the coefficient of restitution.

[Cumberbundy]

5 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

The ball is within the MLB parameters for the coefficient of restitution.

The Juiced Ball Is Back

New testing suggests the baseball is at least partially responsible for MLB’s huge homer spike

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theringer.com/amp/p/155cd21108bc

[Cumberbundy]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-mlbs-new-home-run-era-its-the-baseballs-that-are-juicing/