Is There A Path to 88 Wins for the O's?

[allquixotic]

I think a 17-3 record in a 20 game stretch anywhere in the remaining season would be enough to get it done. Even if they're only mediocre after that, they might be able to coast into the second WC, but they'd still have to play better in the remaining games than they have been from around May 5 - July 7. Orioles teams of recent history have had stretches of results similar to 17-3 on occasion, so it's not impossible, but it's pretty improbable. 

After a 17-3 stretch, they'd only have to play 4 games over .500 for a 29-25 to get to 88 wins. .500 would be 27-27, 86 wins, and the possibility of a second WC tie or something.

[esmd]

Two words - Not and Very.

I just don't see them turning it around with their starting pitching in shambles and the offense underperforming.  Even if Machado, Davis, and company get hot, I don't think it's enough to overcome that rotation, even with the bullpen poised to be back at full strength.  That throws out the trade vs buy arguments, of course, as we don't know (really) which way they'll lean.  I suppose the could land a starter or two (Feldman again?) and hope they're adequate enough to let the offense do its thing.

I still think it's fool's gold, though.

[mrbig1]

If Davis, Trumbo , Manny get and stay hot and Zach is back. We may have a shot if our pitching can just keep us in the game. I know that Tillman Gausman and Bundy is better than that. Gausman has a good season last year. I still have faith.

[jtschrei]

I can see 88 wins if I squint really, really hard. Chris Davis can get very hot. Zach Britton can get very hot. Manny Machado can get very hot. Tillman can pitch better. Gausman can pitch better.

This team is basically the same team that won 89 games last year, so it is possible.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, jtschrei said:

I can see 88 wins if I squint really, really hard. Chris Davis can get very hot. Zach Britton can get very hot. Manny Machado can get very hot. Tillman can pitch better. Gausman can pitch better.

This team is basically the same team that won 89 games last year, so it is possible.

I agree, and we also had a crazy record when leading after 8.  This year we've already lost a handful of those games, and that's been without any regression from Britton.  

Our recipe for success can work, it's just a small margin for error.  The offense is inconsistent and the SP is terrible. Every win seems like a close won and we are still getting blown out about 1/6th of the games.  

[PaulFolk]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who here's saying they'd prefer to be right and want to see things come completely unhinged?  

I think everyone here watches practically every game they can and roots for the team.  It's kind of insulting to say that you're better than people who think this team isn't going anywhere.  

Posted one minute ago in another thread...

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I have to say it:  This is the first time I can recall as an Orioles fan where I am rooting for losses.  I'm not ashamed to say it.  I will never root for losses to improve draft position in a single season, but i really feel the long term health/success of the franchise is on the line right now and being last place in the division and 5 games plus under .500 may be the only way to force the organization's hand. 

 

[ChuckS]

23 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

Posted one minute ago in another thread...

 

Nothing to do with preferring to be right.  I prefer a particular result for non-selfish reasons. 

[Frobby]

I'd prefer to see the team go 74-0 from here.   But rank these four scenarios:

1.   The team goes 44-30, gets the second wild card, and loses the WC game.

2.   The team goes 40-34, finishes just above .500, and misses the playoffs by 3-4 games.

3.   The team goes 37-37, finishes 79-83, with the 11th-worst record in MLB.

4.    The team goes 30-44, finishes  72-90, with the 7th-worst record in MLB.

I could see preferring result 4 to result 3.     Personally, I would not prefer it to result 1, and probably not to result 2, either.     

 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd prefer to see the team go 74-0 from here.   But rank these four scenarios:

1.   The team goes 44-30, gets the second wild card, and loses the WC game.

2.   The team goes 40-34, finishes just above .500, and misses the playoffs by 3-4 games.

3.   The team goes 37-37, finishes 79-83, with the 11th-worst record in MLB.

4.    The team goes 30-44, finishes  72-90, with the 7th-worst record in MLB.

I could see preferring result 4 to result 3.     Personally, I would not prefer it to result 1, and probably not to result 2, either.     

 

I don't want Dan to be able to trade away the first round pick.

[mrbig1]

Just need to win series from here on out. I don't know the numbers but that's what we did last years after the AS break.

[Frobby]

The 1974 Orioles were 63-65 on August 28, then finished 28-6 and won the AL East.

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The 1974 Orioles were 63-65 on August 28, then finished 28-6 and won the AL East.

Top players by WAR

• Bobby Grich 7.3 
• Paul Blair 5.3
• Brooks Robinson 5.0
• Mark Belanger 4.5
• Ross Grimsley 4.0
• Mike Cuellar 3.4
• Earl Williams 1.9
• Dave McNally 1.9
• Grant Jackson 1.8
• Don Baylor 1.8
• Jim Palmer 1.4
• Boog Powell 1.3

Palmer must have been hurt. He didn't pitch between June 16th and August 13th. Made only 26 starts instead of his usual 38-40. He posted a 6.4 WAR in '73 and 8.5 in '75. 

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

 

Top Orioles Players by WAR - 1974

 

• Bobby Grich 7.3 
• Paul Blair 5.3
• Brooks Robinson 5.0
• Mark Belanger 4.5
• Ross Grimsley 4.0
• Mike Cuellar 3.4
• Earl Williams 1.9
• Dave McNally 1.9
• Grant Jackson 1.8
• Don Baylor 1.8
• Jim Palmer 1.4
• Boog Powell 1.3

 

Palmer must have been hurt. He didn't pitch between June 16th and August 13th. Made only 26 starts instead of his usual 38-40. He posted a 6.4 WAR in '73 and 8.5 in '75. 

 

o

 

He was.

Palmer won 20 or more games 8 out of 9 times between 1970 and 1978, with his injury-plagued 1974 season being the exception.

 

Still, on the back of Palmer's 1975 TOPPS baseball card, I remember reading, "Jim's marvelous comeback in 1974 helped the O's to 6th straight East title."

 

But the card was wrong. It was actually the Orioles' 5th East title in 6 years, with the Tigers winning it in 1972.

 

o

[Norfolk orioles]

On 7/10/2017 at 10:39 AM, gmelson26 said:

Joe Saunders still in baseball?

Like that's gonna stop Dan?

[Norfolk orioles]

On 7/10/2017 at 0:35 PM, allquixotic said:

I think a 17-3 record in a 20 game stretch anywhere in the remaining season would be enough to get it done. Even if they're only mediocre after that, they might be able to coast into the second WC, but they'd still have to play better in the remaining games than they have been from around May 5 - July 7. Orioles teams of recent history have had stretches of results similar to 17-3 on occasion, so it's not impossible, but it's pretty improbable. 

After a 17-3 stretch, they'd only have to play 4 games over .500 for a 29-25 to get to 88 wins. .500 would be 27-27, 86 wins, and the possibility of a second WC tie or something.

To go 17-3...........

 

you'd need both bundy and Gausman to go a combined 8-0.

Then you would need Wade Miley, Tillman's corpse and Ubaldo to combine to go 9-3 as well over that stretch.

Good luck with that.