2012-2015 Astros, meet the early 1960s Orioles

[HoustonOrioleFan]

So we lived in Arbutus from 1982 to 1985 (high school years for me) and I of course became a lifelong Orioles fan thanks to the down to wire '82 and championship '83 teams.  We moved to Texas in 1985 and I've been in Houston (HoustonOrioleFan!) for 22 of the last 32 years.

So I like the Astros, Craig Biggio is my all-time favorite non-Oriole, etc.  My point is the 2017 Astros at 60-29 are hard to ignore…the accumulation of young talent (Altuve, Springer, Kuechel, McCullers, Devinski, Correa, etc.) from roughly 2012 to 2015 plus a top ten farm system is incredible...

Then I think "wait a minute, the accumulation of young talent - Steve Barber, Boog, McNally, Motormouth Blair, Davey Johnson, Blefary and of course #22 (I'm sure I've forgotten others) from roughly 1961 to 1965-ish  was also incredible…and -proving history repeats itself - the '17 Astros are on pace to win 108-109 games like the '69/'70 O's...

So all these threads here whether to completely rebuild or not plus well-respected Frobby's "baseball is supposed to make me happy" thread have me convinced in a complete rebuild with the goal being long-term (i.e. young talent) sustainable success…so trade Machado, Britton, whomever for young talent….Obviously no guarantees (it has to be done right)  but the rewards could be incredible…Houston is, rightfully, buzzed about the Astros…it doesn't mean they'll win the World Series, but they will be incredible and fun to watch for several years.

When was the last young/talented Orioles team?  '96/'97 was overwhelming veteran-led…Why Not '89 was fun, but now proven frankly not to be that great a young team (weak AL East with Toronto's 89-win title)…Even '79-'83 was more veterans, right?  More knowledgeable posters will correct me, but I think the 64-66 Orioles were the last (only) young/super talented Orioles team that came into their prime together…sure "old" (he was 30…thank you stupid Reds GM whose name I have forgotten) Frank Robinson put us over the top, but that team was young and so good…must have been incredible!! 

 

 

[Cumberbundy]

Machado is young talent. Houston didn't deal Altuve when they were terrible. Lots of teams tried to give Houston prospects for Altuve but Houston held on to their young star. You keep Machado if you can and build around him. 

Enjoyed the post very much. Houston is fun to watch when they aren't humiliating the O's.

[Moose Milligan]

I liked that post and agreed with it, too.  

The big difference here is that the Astros circa 2010-2014 weren't fooling anyone into thinking the had a chance at winning.  They knew exactly what they needed to do and they did it.  And the did it exceptionally well.

The Orioles, as presently constructed, are a mediocre team that looks like world beaters once or twice a week.  There's some talent.  There's a relatively hefty payroll.  IMO, it's those reasons that are keeping DD and the powers that be from blowing this thing up and re-tooling.  If DD stands pat or, God forbid, swings some dumb deadline deals he's lying to everyone into thinking that this team is a winner.  By winner I mean a team that can get into the playoffs without help.  Over .500 but not making the playofffs doesn't count.  

 

[Frobby]

While I think a complete rebuild may be the way to go, I'm not naive enough to think that rebuilds always work.    You hear a lot about the ones that do, and that makes the odds seem better than they really are.    

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While I think a complete rebuild may be the way to go, I'm not naive enough to think that rebuilds always work.    You hear a lot about the ones that do, and that makes the odds seem better than they really are.    

I'd rather watch kids lose than guys in their 30's.

[jtschrei]

The "tanking model" is all the rage these days -- the Astros; in basketball, the 76ers. In many ways, it makes sense for the Orioles to do this right now. We have a bunch of highly trade-able assets and we're in last place. 

I see two major problems with the Orioles actually executing a successful turnaround a la the Astros. 

• Number 1 - Ownership. The Angelos family has shown no willingness to actually tank. Like, even when we were losing the team would always try to have a "good September", demonstrating this belief that a good September would actually lead to a good next spring. How many times have we had the number 1 overall pick in the Angelos era? I think we've only been in the top 3 twice -- Jeffrey Hammonds and Manny Machado. I remember the year Bryce Harper was coming into the draft. Literally everyone in baseball knew he was a once-in-a-lifetime talent. The Orioles were right there in the running for the #1 pick and we actually won our last 4 games. I don't believe the Angelos family has the will (like you're inflicting losing on your fanbase) or the desire (there's only so many years left for Peter) to tank. Side note: we ended up getting Manny in the 2010 draft instead of Harper, which turned out more than fine, but the point is the same. The Orioles have shown no history of trying to execute a tank. I'm defining tanking as actually trying to get the #1 pick. The Astros got the #1 pick 3 times in a row. 

 

• Number 2 - Can we develop good players? It's hard to know if we've turned the corner, but during the long run of losing between 1997-2011, we didn't develop good ML players. Even the 96-97 teams had a number of free agents. 

What I'm saying is that I have no confidence that the Orioles could pull off an Astros-type rebuild. I could see us signing a few guys and trying to get a wild card again next year though. 

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather watch kids lose than guys in their 30's.

I'm agnostic.    I saw every kind of losing team from 1998-2011, and didn't really enjoy any of them.   

[Ohfan67]

8 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

Machado is young talent. Houston didn't deal Altuve when they were terrible. Lots of teams tried to give Houston prospects for Altuve but Houston held on to their young star. You keep Machado if you can and build around him. 

Enjoyed the post very much. Houston is fun to watch when they aren't humiliating the O's.

I don't think Houston's situation with Altuve and the O's situation with Machado are really similar. Altuve is making 4.5 million dollars THIS YEAR. He's signed for two more years with ridiculously low team options (6  and 6.5 million). The Astros knew they were putting together the talent to be very good to excellent at least two years ago. Keeping a super cheap Altuve at that point was an absolute no brainer. I think Machado is more equivalent to Pence. Machado is a bit better player, but Houston traded Pence when he was 27, producing well for his contract, but a year or two away from a big deal. And the Astros were headed into the rebuild as he was approaching big money. Is paying Machado for four years or so before the rebuild really bears fruit worth it? Is missing out on the prospects he could bring really worth it? I certainly don't know, but I don't think he's comparable to Altuve at all. 

[SteveA]

1977-78 O's had some age in a few places (Palmer, Singleton, May, Belanger).   And some guys in their late 20s/very early 30s like Dempsey and Bumbry.

But they broke in a LOT of young players in those 2 years:   Murray, Dauer, DeCinces, McGregor, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Tim Stoddard, Sammy Stewart, Kiko Garcia, Tippy Martinez, Gary Roenicke.   All played their first full season in either 1977 or 1978.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, SteveA said:

1977-78 O's had some age in a few places (Palmer, Singleton, May, Belanger).   And some guys in their late 20s/very early 30s like Dempsey and Bumbry.

But they broke in a LOT of young players in those 2 years:   Murray, Dauer, DeCinces, McGregor, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Tim Stoddard, Sammy Stewart, Kiko Garcia, Tippy Martinez, Gary Roenicke.   All played their first full season in either 1977 or 1978.

I remember going to a game in the first week of the '77 season and not knowing who anybody was.

[99ct]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

While I think a complete rebuild may be the way to go, I'm not naive enough to think that rebuilds always work.    You hear a lot about the ones that do, and that makes the odds seem better than they really are.    

I came here to post this, and of course Frobby beat me to the punch. Some rebuilds, like the Astros, are wildly successful. Others, of course, are not. But we rarely discuss the unsuccessful ones because we talk about 1) the Orioles and 2) teams who we want the Orioles to be like.

 

Just look at Atlanta, they're in year four and still playing .500 ball.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, 99ct said:

I came here to post this, and of course Frobby beat me to the punch. Some rebuilds, like the Astros, are wildly successful. Others, of course, are not. But we rarely discuss the unsuccessful ones because we talk about 1) the Orioles and 2) teams who we want the Orioles to be like.

 

Just look at Atlanta, they're in year four and still playing .500 ball.

They also have nine of the top 76 prospects on the latest BA List.  I wouldn't call their efforts a failure just yet.

[99ct]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They also have nine of the top 76 prospects on the latest BA List.  I wouldn't call their efforts a failure just yet.

For sure - it could still turn out well for them. I guess my point was more that, in their fourth year, they're still under .500. That's four painful years, and it goes without saying that would take it's toll on Orioles fan. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather watch kids lose than guys in their 30's.

Rebuild much preferred to rolling the dice on the David Segui's and Marty Cordova's of the baseball world.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, 99ct said:

For sure - it could still turn out well for them. I guess my point was more that, in their fourth year, they're still under .500. That's four painful years, and it goes without saying that would take it's toll on Orioles fan. 

I don't find obvious rebuilding years as painful as I do the limbo years where the front office makes some patch work signing and hope the team finishes with a winning record.  I can put up with losing if I can see them working toward an actual goal.