TT: ORIOLES UNEQUIVOCALLY NEED TO BE SELLERS!

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd still like to wait two weeks before deciding what the O's "unequivocally" must do.    What if those same pitchers who've been awful in their last six starts suddenly turn it around?   I am not saying that's likely, but I'd still like to give the team that chance before heading down the rebuild path, because once you've started , there's no going back.   

PS - if they go 2-5 the first week and the pitching stinks, no need to wait at that point.  

Sorry Frobby, you are normally pretty level headed, but I can't see how one week after the All-Star break will change a mountain of evidence that this organization needs to sell, sell, sell! 

[Tony-OH]

49 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

I agree it is time to restock the team.   Trade Manny, hopefully out west, with a good return or even to the evil empire.  Let him throw bats at infielders in yankee stadium- that goes over good there.

Trade one of the top two relievers, Brittan (if he shows good, or if not then Brach) or maybe both if there is a good return-  maybe a top 50 and a top 100 prospect for each.  (That would leave O'Day and Givens to work in Baltimore). 

Trade Trumbo for whatever he can bring- it might just be a top 150 player in AA.

We have Sisco in the minors-  Castillio is available for the rest of the year as well.  Seith Smith can go as well.   

The yield might be:

Manny:    two top 50 one top 100:   SS, 3R and pitcher

Brittan and Brock:  ?  3 top 75 pitchers

Trumpo, Castillio, Smith:     3 top 150 players.

There would be a future.

 

 

 

 

If we could give Trumbo away I would just to get out from that contract and free up a place for Mancini!

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ISU94 said:

Do you get a sense that we really will be? At least on the pen front with guys like Britton and Brach?

If we don't plan on getting Machado locked up (at this point, with where we are, it would probably be dumb too anyway), than I see no reason to not deal him for a major haul (although I think the Red Sox package is too light, think I'd push really hard for a Devers/Groome headline and see what happens) and get this rebuild going. The pitching is too far gone, we don't have the farm to realistically get anything that would get us back on track, etc.

IMO, Britton most definitely needs to be moved. His value with this much control is so much higher than it'd likely be next year. 

I really have no idea which way the orioles will go. My negative side tells me they won't and we'll be in the same purgatory next year and the year after. I just gave my thoughts on what we SHOULD do, not what I think they will do.

[SeaBird]

27 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

Sorry, but Manny is not under contract after next year.  He can go where he wants at that point. Manny has an attitude that would fit the Yankees very well and he was a fan of a-rod growing up.  The yankees have the second best farm system and doing a deal with them, where Manny does a yankee contract before the trade makes the most sense.   if Manny walks after next year, he might wind up with the big bucks yankees anyway.

 

You're right that Machado has an attitude but I'm not sure it's an attitude that would fit the Yankees very well.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Sorry Frobby, you are normally pretty level headed, but I can't see how one week after the All-Star break will change a mountain of evidence that this organization needs to sell, sell, sell! 

Notice I didn't say that going 5-2 in the first week would be enough for me to say not to sell.    I said two weeks, but if the outcome is bad the first week, no need to wait.    

I expect sometime in the next two weeks I'll be on the selling bandwagon.    But I just don't see a reason to hurry.    It's not just about the "evidence," it's about the standings.   If the 5% odds are the same or less in two weeks, end of discussion.    But if events occur that significantly improve the odds, I want to mull that over before pulling the trigger.   

[Il BuonO]

53 minutes ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

I agree it is time to restock the team.   Trade Manny, hopefully out west, with a good return or even to the evil empire.  Let him throw bats at infielders in yankee stadium- that goes over good there.

Trade one of the top two relievers, Brittan (if he shows good, or if not then Brach) or maybe both if there is a good return-  maybe a top 50 and a top 100 prospect for each.  (That would leave O'Day and Givens to work in Baltimore). 

Trade Trumbo for whatever he can bring- it might just be a top 150 player in AA.

We have Sisco in the minors-  Castillio is available for the rest of the year as well.  Seith Smith can go as well.   

The yield might be:

Manny:    two top 50 one top 100:   SS, 3R and pitcher

Brittan and Brock:  ?  3 top 75 pitchers

Trumpo, Castillio, Smith:     3 top 150 players.

There would be a future.

The baseline for any deal w Britton should be the Chapman deal. Britton has been the better pitcher for two years now. Notwithstanding, they should deal Brach as well.

[ChuckS]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd still like to wait two weeks before deciding what the O's "unequivocally" must do.    What if those same pitchers who've been awful in their last six starts suddenly turn it around?   I am not saying that's likely, but I'd still like to give the team that chance before heading down the rebuild path, because once you've started , there's no going back.   

PS - if they go 2-5 the first week and the pitching stinks, no need to wait at that point.  

I think that (hopefully) this is the organization's stance as well and that if it continues going like it has been we will in fact be sellers.  Some of Duquette's quotes in Roch's article that came out yesterday lead to me believe that.  It's a step-up from "we will unequivocally be buyers".  

For me they have to get back to .500 to justify in any way, not being sellers at the deadline.  That's 10-6. I'm rooting against it to be honest and don't expect it with tough series against the Cubs and Rangers (Hamels is back) out of the gate.  The Astros and Rays won't be rolling over either.  

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Notice I didn't say that going 5-2 in the first week would be enough for me to say not to sell.    I said two weeks, but if the outcome is bad the first week, no need to wait.    

I expect sometime in the next two weeks I'll be on the selling bandwagon.    But I just don't see a reason to hurry.    It's not just about the "evidence," it's about the standings.   If the 5% odds are the same or less in two weeks, end of discussion.    But if events occur that significantly improve the odds, I want to mull that over before pulling the trigger.   

How much do you think those odds can go up in two weeks?

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, weams said:

It's time. 

 

pic.twitter.com/oO7zo8e5PK

That was as bad as Him Bowden riding a Segway wearing blueish leather pants. 

Things that can't be unseen.

[FlipTheBird]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Notice I didn't say that going 5-2 in the first week would be enough for me to say not to sell.    I said two weeks, but if the outcome is bad the first week, no need to wait.    

I expect sometime in the next two weeks I'll be on the selling bandwagon.    But I just don't see a reason to hurry.    It's not just about the "evidence," it's about the standings.   If the 5% odds are the same or less in two weeks, end of discussion.    But if events occur that significantly improve the odds, I want to mull that over before pulling the trigger.   

I agree with this part wholeheartedly.

[billw76]

Great write up Tony, and I'm in agreement that we should be sellers, but like you I'm not sure that it will happen.

Guys like Machado, Britton, Brach, Trumbo, Smith, Kim, and possibly even Jones should net us quite a haul if the decision is made to sell, but it has to be done right and not half way. I'd hate to trade withing the division to the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays, but if they offer the best package for anyone that may be traded, you make the trade, same with the Nationals. We may even be able to ask a higher price just by trading within the division or to the Nats. 

We'd still have some pieces left on the ML roster to build around like Schoop, Mancini, Bundy, Gausman and Givens so the team wouldn't be completely devoid of talent, and it would free up some salary and give a jump start to a rebuild and the future.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I agree with this part wholeheartedly.

Yep, if they wait for the Nationals and Dodgers to find other solutions to their bullpen needs it should really ramp up their return on a Britton trade.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

How much do you think those odds can go up in two weeks?

They can go up a lot in two weeks, if you follow these things.    However, I note that the Orioles poor odds on Fangraphs are not just a function of their W-L record, when you consider that Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays 20% odds of making the playoffs and us just 5%.    Even the Tigers are given 8% odds and they're 9 games under .500.     

The next two weeks we have a very tough schedule, then the schedule's pretty easy for 5-6 weeks.     That's another reason I'd like to let things play out a little longer.    If we could actually do well against these tough teams, that would be pretty meaningful in terms of what happens the rest of the way.

Again, I'm not meaning to suggest I'm optimistic about how this is going to go.     

[weams]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/orioles/heyman-can-orioles-sway-owner-angelos/

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/orioles/heyman-can-orioles-sway-owner-angelos/

Not really any information there, just speculation by Herman.