Deadline Deal Orioles Mega-Thread

[backwardsk]

21 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

A few ideas that haven't been reported (yet).

Explore a Castillo trade with the Cubs. They've been looking for a back up catcher ever since they released Montero. Supposedly they've been talking to the Tigers about Avila. Why can't we get in on this action. Target Candelairo.

 

Explore a Britton trade with the Cardinals. Their closer situation is a mess. They're only 4 1/2 back...a lock down closer could be ver appealing. Target Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver.

 

Swallow your pride and explore a Seth Smith trade with the Nats. They need OF depth. Target Juan Soto or one of their young ML bullp n arms like Glover or Kelly.

I don't see the Nationals trading anything of importance for outfield depth. Certainly not Soto or Glover.  They may make an August move, but Werth should be back then.  They're calling up Stevenson.  Rayburn will be back next week, and Werth should be back in August.

[weams]

46 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

These are good thoughts, but if I am the Astros GM, I probably have a different thought process.  Namely, my team is 17 games in front and is arguably the best team in MLB in 2017.  So if I have to stand pat with this group rather than give up major prospect studs to improve my team a little more, ummm...that will be ok.  

And the first round elimination is on you for that. 

[weams]

8 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I don't see the Nationals trading anything of importance for outfield depth. Certainly not Soto or Glover.  They may make an August move, but Werth should be back then.  They're calling up Stevenson.  Rayburn will be back next week, and Werth should be back in August.

And the first round elimination is on him again. 

[weams]

42 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Did they say that in 2005? Are they better than the Dodgers? Beating the Red Sox or Yankees is no sure thing!

I'm right with you.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, weams said:

And the first round elimination is on him again. 

Do you realize how little the addition of a reliever or even good every player moves the WS probability numbers? Last year, Chapman moved the Cubs' odds less than 2%. Would the Astros be better with Britton? Sure, but they're already an elite team and the chances of him being the difference are tremendously slim.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Do you realize how little the addition of a reliever or even good every player moves the WS probability numbers? Last year, Chapman moved the Cubs' odds less than 2%. Would the Astros be better with Britton? Sure, but they're already an elite team and the chances of him being the difference are tremendously slim.

It's ok. It would make a difference. More than the statistical probability. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I'm right with you.

I just don't get the idea from some of the negative nellies that think we should just give our top pieces away for marginal prospect help.

The people saying no for Foster & Whitley or The Dodger fan posting here saying no way to Buehler or Verdrugo. But sure you can have our marginal guys who are more likely to bust or be mediocre. Like accepting Fraser instead of Tucker....Frasher is a good prospect if you want another Davis clone.

We need to get a teams top prospect as a starter...Not the one they want to give up.

 

 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Do you realize how little the addition of a reliever or even good every player moves the WS probability numbers? Last year, Chapman moved the Cubs' odds less than 2%. Would the Astros be better with Britton? Sure, but they're already an elite team and the chances of him being the difference are tremendously slim.

We can argue percentages ....But if either got Britton and he either closed or pitched the 8th inning and was nearly perfect through the end of the season and the playoffs. This would improve the chances a lot more than 2%

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

We can argue percentages ....But if either got Britton and he either closed or pitched the 8th inning and was nearly perfect through the end of the season and the playoffs. This would improve the chances a lot more than 2%

That's a fairly large assumption

[hoosiers]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

We can argue percentages ....But if either got Britton and he either closed or pitched the 8th inning and was nearly perfect through the end of the season and the playoffs. This would improve the chances a lot more than 2%

Many folks here won't admit to the above because they don't want to admit we overpaid for Andrew Miller.  There is tremendous appreciation for that 2% improvement and an ignorance that the improvement comes at a cost and that the future cost might be significantly more than the 2%.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, hoosiers said:

Many folks here won't admit to the above because they don't want to admit we overpaid for Andrew Miller.  There is tremendous appreciation for that 2% improvement and an ignorance that the improvement comes at a cost and that the future cost might be significantly more than the 2%.

I guarantee you that if Detriot had picked up Miller instead of the O's the O's chances of winning that series would have been altered by significantly more than 4%.

I'd also say that Miller increased the Indians' chances by more than 2% last year.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Good post...you did your homework but they're not going to offer much for Britton. I think right now, right this moment Britton is viewed as damaged goods until he proves otherwise, if he ever does.

How is he viewed as damaged goods? He was injured, it was diagnosed as a forearm strain and examined by several doctors. And rushed back to fast the first time.

His velocity is not down, he is throwing ground balls, his performance would be better if the Orioles didnt have people playing SS like Tejada.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That's a fairly large assumption

How ....Zach's past performance shows he's an elite closer. If he's healthy and the signs say he is Velocity, Velocity, Velocity! Plus he is throwing grounders. You can expect a player in his prime to be who he is. He can handle the pressure. You can see that he is not as sharp control wiser and that can be attributed to rust.

[bpilktree]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guarantee you that if Detriot had picked up Miller instead of the O's the O's chances of winning that series would have been altered by significantly more than 4%.

I'd also say that Miller increased the Indians' chances by more than 2% last year.

That would s the big thing it is not just if your team gets a guy it is also if it keeps the other team getting him.  I bet the Tiger GM regrets everyday not adding a piece to sweeten the deal.  If you don't give up a piece and let him go to another team and then he joins a team you play in the postseason and he is the main guy to knock you out you will be regretting it everyday.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Until he returns to form, if he ever does, I would be cautious dealing for him if I was an opposing GM. I would be checking the medical pretty carefully.

Sure and you would expect them to check his medicals. Look, the Orioles have Britton for another season. If he wasn't healthy he would not be active.

What would have to happen in the next 8 days for you think he's back to form? In his last 5 appearances he's given up nothing in four of them and 2 runs on the 20th. I did not wtach the game...but 1) it wasn't a save situation. We see closers give stuff up in those types of games frequently all over baseball. 2) Did shoddy fielding affect the line? I did not watch the game so I can't tell you.

On July 7th Britton gave up 2 runs ....on a bloop, and a tanked ball by Tejada that was hit right at him. Somehow it was rewarded a hit rather than an hour them?