The O's can have their cake and eat it too

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

See, I don't think so.    Our bullpen pitches a lot of innings and if you take two guys who have been doing a lot of really good middle relief and use them to replace two guys at the back end, your middle relief is going to suffer.    I'm willing to live with that for the long term good of the team, but realistically, it'll look like it did when Britton and O'Day were both out, and maybe a little worse (since O'Day isn't as good as Brach any more).

Some drop off is to be expected, but the starting pitching was horrendous in the time both those guys were out. 

[Lucky_13]

The Orioles have power arms at AA and AAA that can improve the pen. 

Mike Wright, Matt Wotherspoon, Richard Rodriguez, David Hess, Lucas Long, etc. Not to mention that they could make a deal for a veteran in August if they want to like Tyler Clippard, Shawn Kelley, Tommy Hunter. There would be a drop off but the pen could be solidified more easily then the rotation.

[Tx Oriole]

3 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

The Orioles have power arms at AA and AAA that can improve the pen. 

Mike Wright, Matt Wotherspoon, Richard Rodriguez, David Hess, Lucas Long, etc. Not to mention that they could make a deal for a veteran in August if they want to like Tyler Clippard, Shawn Kelley, Tommy Hunter. There would be a drop off but the pen could be solidified more easily then the rotation.

Maybe you might have a point.

[NCRaven]

I don't think that any drop off that we see in bullpen performance will have a material effect on our ability to make the playoffs this year.  It is very small now and may be a little smaller after.  Fangraphs gives us a 1.2% chance to win the division and an 8.7% chance to get a wildcard spot.  That's with Britton, Brach, Smith, and Castillo.  So if you cut them in half, how much worse of are you?  And, any chance to improve our playoff odds are really based on improved performance by our top 3 starters and at least mediocrity from the other two.  If that doesn't happen, it doesn't matter what our bullpen looks like.

[sportsfan8703]

I don't think this will happen or we should do it, but having our cake and eating it too would be getting back Buehler, Stewart and Romo from LA.  Putting Buehler and Stewart in the rotation and Romo in the open pen spot.  

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Some drop off is to be expected, but the starting pitching was horrendous in the time both those guys were out. 

No question that if the starting pitching turned around a bit, it would be easier to withstand the loss of two topnotch relievers.   

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

The Orioles have power arms at AA and AAA that can improve the pen. 

Mike Wright, Matt Wotherspoon, Richard Rodriguez, David Hess, Lucas Long, etc. Not to mention that they could make a deal for a veteran in August if they want to like Tyler Clippard, Shawn Kelley, Tommy Hunter. There would be a drop off but the pen could be solidified more easily then the rotation.

I don't think on Rodriguez and Long as power arms.   I think Wotherspoon is.   Wright has a fastball that he can't locate.  I don't know what Hess throws.

[hoosiers]

I understand the premise of selling some strong bullpen components for the right pieces COULD make the team better, but the implication that our FO would focus on such trades somewhat implies that we are not taking the best packages for the players being dealt, but taking the packages with the most major league ready guys.  This team has major holes on the major league roster and has a well below average farm system.  We need to add talent and understand we are facing a multi-year rebuild before creating a team with realistic playoff chances given the talent on other American League teams.  Let's just add as much talent as we can regardless of level.  Remember, other teams will give up more prospects if you let them keep their major league guys and a top prospect or two. 

[Il BuonO]

20 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

This team has major holes on the major league roster and has a well below average farm system.  We need to add talent and understand we are facing a multi-year rebuild before creating a team with realistic playoff chances given the talent on other American League teams.  Let's just add as much talent as we can regardless of level.  Remember, other teams will give up more prospects if you let them keep their major league guys and a top prospect or two. 

This. Their focus needs to be on the future and not an immediate one.

[weams]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I understand the premise of selling some strong bullpen components for the right pieces COULD make the team better, but the implication that our FO would focus on such trades somewhat implies that we are not taking the best packages for the players being dealt, but taking the packages with the most major league ready guys.  This team has major holes on the major league roster and has a well below average farm system.  We need to add talent and understand we are facing a multi-year rebuild before creating a team with realistic playoff chances given the talent on other American League teams.  Let's just add as much talent as we can regardless of level.  Remember, other teams will give up more prospects if you let them keep their major league guys and a top prospect or two. 

Right. We would never do that. It would be a sell-off. No buying and selling stuff.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

But Frobby, next year we might be able to start someone like Austin Hays or even Mullins in the OF.Both defend, run, and hit well.If you're thinking only of this season, we will take a hit, but next year with new players we might add some new talent.

We have no ideas that any of those players would have better MLB careers than Chris Dickerson. None. 

[Aristotelian]

The more likely win now/win later scenario is get what we can for Smith, then trade a low level prospects for a decent SP with an expiring contract, like Cashner or dare I say Scott Feldman.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

The more likely win now/win later scenario is get what we can for Smith, then trade a low level prospects for a decent SP with an expiring contract, like Cashner or dare I say Scott Feldman.

Feldman just went on the DL.

[crawjo]

The fact that the team is not shopping Machado suggests they aren't really interested in rebuilding, but rather retooling for one more run in 2018. It makes sense, in a way: Angelos is very old, Duquette and Showalter have never won championships. They want one more shot. I think they feel that if they can trade Britton, Brach, Smith, and Castillo for some starting pitching that will be ready by the beginning of next year, they can take their rotation of Bundy and Gausman plus whoever they get in the offseason, add in a reliever or two to try to replace some of the missing bullpen depth, and try to win next year. 

I think it's a dubious proposition. They should rebuild and trade Machado. But the interests of the key players (Angelos, Duquette, and Showalter) is to try to win now. 

To contend in 2018, this team needs two outfielders, at least one of whom should be a center fielder, a shortstop/third baseman, and three starting pitchers. If they don't improve their outfield defense and starting rotation, they won't be good enough to win a championship. When I look at next year's team right now, I see this lineup:

C: Joseph/Sisco
1B: Davis
2B: Schoop
3B: Machado
SS: ??
LF: Mancini
CF: ??
RF: Jones
DH: Trumbo

SP: Bundy
SP: Gausman
SP: ??
SP: ??
SP: ??

Filling in those question marks is what separates this team from being competitive next year. If you can't fill in those question marks, you NEED to trade Machado. 

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, crawjo said:

The fact that the team is not shopping Machado suggests they aren't really interested in rebuilding, but rather retooling...

Filling in those question marks is what separates this team from being competitive next year. If you can't fill in those question marks, you NEED to trade Machado. 

You do have the off season to fill those holes.  And a trade of Britton could fill some, as well.  You don't have to know who fills those holes right now, but you do need a plan to fill them through a combination of minor league promotions (Chris Johnson was a successful ML 3Bman and is hitting well in AAA, move Manny to SS and fill 3B with Johnson, one ? filled), trades (Britton could bring back a young, controllable, near ML ready starting pitcher, one ? filled), free agents (sign a starter and bring back Tillman on a one-year make good contract, more ?'s filled).

IOW, you don't have to know who will answer all of those ?'s today to decide that you want to hold onto Manny and retool.  I'm not saying that would be the best choice, just that it's not an unreasonable plan.