Mancini is a ROY finalist

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs did a piece this week ranking the top graduated prospects of 2017.    It’s a forward-looking list, not one based on how they were ranked in the minors.   Aaron Judge is no. 1, and the list is 46 players deep.

Guess who’s not on it?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-2017s-graduated-prospects/

Same reasons as always I’m sure. They see him as fully baked as a hitter. Poor defense in the outfield drags the bat down and playing first requires a higher offensive ceiling than he possesses due to plate discipline issues. He’s coming off a below average season by Fangraphs’ own WAR methodology. However, these are players they only project for future value of league average. To me, he should be at the bottom of the list. I see him as precisely average now and in the future.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Same reasons as always I’m sure. They see him as fully baked as a hitter. Poor defense in the outfield drags the bat down and playing first requires a higher offensive ceiling than he possesses due to plate discipline issues. He’s coming off a below average season by Fangraphs’ own WAR methodology. However, these are players they only project for future value of league average. To me, he should be at the bottom of the list. I see him as precisely average now and in the future.

Which, of course, does not mean he doesn't have value.

[Babypowder]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which, of course, does not mean he doesn't have value.

Of course, especially while he’s cheap.

He’s essentially prime Mark Trumbo.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which, of course, does not mean he doesn't have value.

Taking a look at 1998-99 as an example, the 46th best WAR from players who debuted in those years was about 6.5 - 6.7.     I’d like to think Mancini will exceed that (he’s at 2.5 now).    

Danny Valencia is an interesting comp.    He was 3rd in the ROY voting in 2010, posting a 2.0 rWAR campaign.   He’s now at 5.8 rWAR, 45th among players who debuted in 2010.   Out of the 203 players who debuted that year, only 71 played in the majors in 2017.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Same reasons as always I’m sure. They see him as fully baked as a hitter. Poor defense in the outfield drags the bat down and playing first requires a higher offensive ceiling than he possesses due to plate discipline issues. He’s coming off a below average season by Fangraphs’ own WAR methodology. However, these are players they only project for future value of league average. To me, he should be at the bottom of the list. I see him as precisely average now and in the future.

Those are great points and I agree for the most part. I think Mancini is more of a 50 than a 45, and some of the 50s they gave out at the end of the list seem generous to me. So he fits in the #30+ range on that list IMO.

I will say one thing about Mancini. He is a guy who is a small launch angle improvement away from being a 30+ HR/.250 ISO guy.  He was top 20 in max exit velocity, top 50-60 in average LD/FB exit velocity, and top 50 in barrels/plate appearance.  However, he wasn't in the top 100 of ISO.  Why, because his average launch angle was almost half of the league average. 

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Those are great points and I agree for the most part. I think Mancini is more of a 50 than a 45, and some of the 50s they gave out at the end of the list seem generous to me. So he fits in the #30+ range on that list IMO.

I will say one thing about Mancini. He is a guy who is a small launch angle improvement away from being a 30+ HR/.250 ISO guy.  He was top 20 in max exit velocity, top 50-60 in average LD/FB exit velocity, and top 50 in barrels/plate appearance.  However, he wasn't in the top 100 of ISO.  Why, because his average launch angle was almost half of the league average. 

 

2 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Same reasons as always I’m sure. They see him as fully baked as a hitter. Poor defense in the outfield drags the bat down and playing first requires a higher offensive ceiling than he possesses due to plate discipline issues. He’s coming off a below average season by Fangraphs’ own WAR methodology. However, these are players they only project for future value of league average. To me, he should be at the bottom of the list. I see him as precisely average now and in the future.

I certainly agree that he has been and continues to be underrated.  He has exceeded expectations at every level including rookie year playing a position at the ML level he had never played at any level.   I still predict that Trey is going to have an even larger,  monster season in 2018 and that these ratings by Fangraphs will look just plain dumb.    I think he will be better both offensively and I think he will be even better defensively (if they just leave him be in left). 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

 

I certainly agree that he has been and continues to be underrated.  He has exceeded expectations at every level including rookie year playing a position at the ML level he had never played at any level.   I still predict that Trey is going to have an even larger,  monster season in 2018 and that these ratings by Fangraphs will look just plain dumb.    I think he will be better both offensively and I think he will be even better defensively (if they just leave him be in left). 

As a fan, I hope you are right.

That said, I do not expect him to be an more than an average to slightly above average regular.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

As a fan, I hope you are right.

That said, I do not expect him to be an more than an average to slightly above average regular.

Because of his defense, but I hope his offense can be above average for a corner OF.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

As a fan, I hope you are right.

That said, I do not expect him to be an more than an average to slightly above average regular.

Healthy Nolan Reimold?

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

 

I certainly agree that he has been and continues to be underrated.  He has exceeded expectations at every level including rookie year playing a position at the ML level he had never played at any level.   I still predict that Trey is going to have an even larger,  monster season in 2018 and that these ratings by Fangraphs will look just plain dumb.    I think he will be better both offensively and I think he will be even better defensively (if they just leave him be in left). 

And I would trade him in a New York minute to bring in better pitching. Of course that goes for anyone on the team. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Healthy Nolan Reimold?

That type of value, but they are different types of players. Reimold walked more, struck out less, and put the ball in the air.  He also didn't make a lot of hard contact.  Mancini hits the snot out of the ball, but doesn't walk much, basically his value with the bat is he hits the ball hard.  That seems to be the type of players the O's have targeted lately. The Orioles had 4 (Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, and Mancini) of the top 18 players by max exit velocity in 2017. Former O's Pedro Alvarez and Nelson Cruz are also always up there in exit velocity.  Chris Davis used to be high on the list before he started losing bat speed.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

That type of value, but they are different types of players. Reimold walked more, struck out less, and put the ball in the air.  He also didn't make a lot of hard contact.  Mancini hits the snot out of the ball, but doesn't walk much, basically his value with the bat is he hits the ball hard.  That seems to be the type of players the O's have targeted lately. The Orioles had 4 (Machado, Trumbo, Schoop, and Mancini) of the top 18 players by max exit velocity in 2017. Former O's Pedro Alvarez and Nelson Cruz are also always up there in exit velocity.  Chris Davis used to be high on the list before he started losing bat speed.

When Trey was with Frederick, I was vacationing in Myrtle Beach and went to see the Keys and Pelicans there.   Trey hit a home run that literally very few times in 50 plus years of watching ML and minor league baseball have I ever seen a ball hit that hard.   It literally was still going up on a line when it passed the center field fence and slammed into the scoreboard so hard it could have gone through it, 

Trey can hit that sphere.  Really rare power. 

Plus I just think he is a true athlete in the sense of guys you see succeed beyond expectations in different pro sports all the time...he intuitively just keeps upping his game even though analysts keep looking at “tools”.     I think he has a fierce drive to prove something which is there, of course, with many pro athletes, but I think Trey has it in greater measure than most. 

I think he has not peaked in production value in any sense of the term. 

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

As a fan, I hope you are right.

That said, I do not expect him to be an more than an average to slightly above average regular.

Of course, all the “expected expectations of experts”...every single one I read on this board and everywhere else  this same time last year, Trey was predicted at the very best as a bench player maybe DH with a less than 50/50 shot of even making the team and certainly not as an outfielder.  So there’s that. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Of course, all the “expected expectations of experts”...every single one I read on this board and everywhere else  this same time last year, Trey was predicted at the very best as a bench player maybe DH with a less than 50/50 shot of even making the team and certainly not as an outfielder.  So there’s that. 

Well considering that the Orioles didn't think he could be an outfielder this time last year, can you blame us?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Of course, all the “expected expectations of experts”...every single one I read on this board and everywhere else  this same time last year, Trey was predicted at the very best as a bench player maybe DH with a less than 50/50 shot of even making the team and certainly not as an outfielder.  So there’s that. 

I wasn't posting on the board at the time just lurking, but I was ready to let him split time with Trumbo between DH/1B instead of signing Chris Davis.  I can't prove it, but I remember pitching it to my brother repeatedly. 

I like Mancini, and I'm surely not trying to slight him, an average regular is a good player.  Plus like I said in the other post, if he could change his swing to get more balls in the air, he'd have significantly more upside. He very well may make those changes, he may cut the Ks and increase walks as well, it's just hard to project that.