Orioles to take another shot at extending Machado per Roch

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I read your post as saying he wouldn't get more than 8 years.  My bad.

Put it this way: the only reason he’ll get 8 seasons or less is if he wants it that way, which I seriously doubt.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just remember it wasn't Hader for Norris.  It was Hoes, Hader, and a first round pick.

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember it wasn't Hader for Norris.  It was Hoes, Hader, and a first round pick.

Which was used to select Derek Fischer who made a nice contribution for Houston in his first ML experience this year.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember it wasn't Hader for Norris.  It was Hoes, Hader, and a first round pick.

 

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Which was used to select Derek Fischer who made a nice contribution for Houston in his first ML experience this year.

 

Fisher wasn’t spectacular (.212/.307/.356 in 166 PA, 0.4 rWAR), but at a minimum he’s made it to the majors at age 23.    Certainly an important component of the trade was that pick.

[El Gordo]

Suppose you offered 5/150 M starting in 2018, with a player option(per Castillo) for 5/180 after that. That way he would get more than he could expect for the next 5 years with the option to decline the next 5  years if he thinks he can get more than 35 M AAV going forward.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

Fisher wasn’t spectacular (.212/.307/.356 in 166 PA, 0.4 rWAR), but at a minimum he’s made it to the majors at age 23.    Certainly an important component of the trade was that pick.

I agree that the pick was a major component of the trade.  IMO, who the Astros actually picked and how that player has performed and progressed since that time isn't really what matters, though, when evaluating the trade.  Plenty of players taken with the 37th pick or later in the 2014 draft have done very well.  Plenty of others have bombed out.  There's no way for us to know what player the Orioles would have taken with that pick.  The point is that the 37th pick in the MLB draft has prospect value.  I think the pick itself certainly had value at the time, and that prospect value would have been a big part of the trade even if the player eventually picked turned out to be organizational fodder.  The trade shouldn't be considered as being either brilliant or stupid based on how the draft pick performs, as that is quite obviously unknown at the time of the trade.  Just my opinion.

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I agree that the pick was a major component of the trade.  IMO, who the Astros actually picked and how that player has performed and progressed since that time isn't really what matters, though, when evaluating the trade.  Plenty of players taken with the 37th pick or later in the 2014 draft have done very well.  Plenty of others have bombed out.  There's no way for us to know what player the Orioles would have taken with that pick.  The point is that the 37th pick in the MLB trade has prospect value.  I think the pick itself certainly had value at the time, and that prospect value would have been a big part of the trade even if the player eventually picked turned out to be organizational fodder.  The trade shouldn't be considered as being either brilliant or stupid based on how the draft pick performs, as that is quite obviously unknown at the time of the trade.  Just my opinion.

You are right about all this, of course.    If the O’s had kept the pick, it’s unlikely they would have picked Fisher, since every team evaluates players differently.   Maybe they would have picked someone better, maybe it would have been someone worse.    But we can all agree that the odds of a 37th pick reaching the majors is pretty good.    Adam Jones was a 37th pick.    So were Frank Viola, Troy Glaus and 20 other guys who made the majors.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just remember it wasn't Hader for Norris.  It was Hoes, Hader, and a first round pick.

I realize, I just didn’t type it out.  I did put it in the bad trade category.

Norris was a young above average starting pitcher at the time only making 3 million and under control for 2.5 seasons and he was acquired without a top 100 prospect, the draft pick was the major get for the Astros.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I realize, I just didn’t type it out.  I did put it in the bad trade category.

Norris was a young above average starting pitcher at the time only making 3 million and under control for 2.5 seasons and he was acquired without a top 100 prospect, the draft pick was the major get for the Astros.

I question calling Norris "above average".

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I question calling Norris "above average".

I also question calling him "young".

[esmd]

2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Suppose you offered 5/150 M starting in 2018, with a player option(per Castillo) for 5/180 after that. That way he would get more than he could expect for the next 5 years with the option to decline the next 5  years if he thinks he can get more than 35 M AAV going forward.

What's the difference between that an opt out?  It's the same thing.  If he chooses, you're still on the hook for 10/330.  Opting in vs Opting out is just semantics.  It's like the difference between a nanny and an au pair.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, esmd said:

What's the difference between that an opt out?  It's the same thing.  If he chooses, you're still on the hook for 10/330.  Opting in vs Opting out is just semantics.  It's like the difference between a nanny and an au pair.

Agreed.   

[POR]

16 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Good Trades

Miranda for Miley didn't work out as hoped, but that was great value for Miranda who wasn't much of anything.

Jones for Brach, pretty fair trade at the time, worked out well for the Orioles obviously

Tobias Myers for Beckham may or may not be a great trade, but again great value getting an average MLB SS for a guy who has thrown 30 short season innings and doesn't have wow stuff.

Gallardo for Smith was good value and worked out pretty well.

Cleavinger for Trumbo was good value and worked out well, it would have worked out better if they didn't resign Davis and then didn't resign Trumbo, but that doesn't take away from the trade.

E Rod. for Miller was an example of a good deadline acquisition, you don't get something for nothing 

 

Bad Trades

Davies for Parra, anyone who has ever looked at advanced stats knew Parra was due for a huge regression

Kim, Cleavinger, and slot money for Hellickson, not big consequences but not a smart trade and pretty obviously not a smart trade IMO

Tarpley, Brault for Snider worked out badly, but it made sense at the time, Brault turned into something but was the secondary piece in the deal.

Hader+ for Norris was pretty fair at the time, this is pretty neutral to me.

There are a bunch of other small ones, that weren't of much importance.  I thought Lino for Thome wasn't good, and Heim for Pearce was good but none of the players in either deal did much. De Aza and Bourn trades were ok.

 

That's not a bad record IMO, I'd trust Duquette to sell assets.

Am I missing something?  You wrote a long post listing a bunch of DD trades with the conclusion that Duquette does not have a bad trade record.  One of the worst trades in baseball  the last ten years is omitted.  Jake Arrieta says hi.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I also question calling him "young".

 

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I question calling Norris "above average".

Fair enough but he was just 28 and coming off 3 seasons where he was at or near 2 WAR and was having his best season yet at an age where players often have their peak.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, POR said:

Am I missing something?  You wrote a long post listing a bunch of DD trades with the conclusion that Duquette does not have a bad trade record.  One of the worst trades in baseball  the last ten years is omitted.  Jake Arrieta says hi.

That was only one of the worst trades if you think Arrieta would have developed in Baltimore, I didn’t intentionally leave it out though, late night and forgot. 

Arrieta’s ascension to TOR arm is a black eye on the Orioles organization, not because of trading him, but because of how they screwed up his development.