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What star players were traded right before their walk year without a long term commitment to the new team?

Frobby

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I’m just trying to sort through what precedents there are that might indicate the type of value we might get for Manny.    So, what star players were traded immediately before their walk year without any commitment that they’d sign with their new team, and what was received in exchange?

So far, I’ve come up with two:

1.   In the 2010-11 offseason, Adrian Gonzalez was traded to the Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Rey Fuentes and a PTBNL who turned out to be Eric Peterson.    At the time, Kelly was ranked 31/48/69 by BA, BP and MLB.com, and was in AA, while Rizzo was ranked 75/69/—, also in AA.   Fuentes had been the 28th pick in the draft in 2009 and was in low A at age 19, holding his own at .705 OPS.    Patterson had been a journeyman player and was out of options.    Gonzalez was 28 and had been worth 19.6 rWAR in his career, coming off a 4.3 WAR season.    He did not sign a long term deal as part of the trade, but my recollection is it was known that he was receptive to it, and he did in fact sign an extension in April 2011.

2.   In the 2008-09 offseason, Matt Holliday was traded for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street.   CarGo had been ranked 22/26 the prior season, and had a .643 OPS, 1.1 WAR part-year (4 months) with the A’s under his belt.   Steeet had two years of control left and had been mediocre for two seasons after better rookie/sophomore campaigns.   Smith had spent his rookie year in Oakland’s rotation, throwing 190 innings to an ERA+ of 99.   Holliday was 28 and had been worth 18.4 WAR to that point, coming off a 5.8 WAR season.   Oakland ended up flipping him to the Cards at the trade deadline, and he eventually re-upped with the Cards after fully testing free agency.   (The deadline trade for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson brought back slightly less value for Holliday than the A’s had paid to acquire him at the start of the year, IMO).

Anybody have other examples?    Based on these, we should be able to get a top 20-40 prospect as a headliner, and maybe a second top 100 guy, plus 1-2 other useful pieces.    Manny IMO has more inherent value than either González or Holliday, but the fact that he seems determined to test the FA waters may inhibit his value somewhat.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Reggie Jackson.  :D

There is a thread about it somewhere, you might have to dig a bit.

It certainly fits, but I’d be hard pressed to apply it here because FA was so new then, the comp rules were different and Jackson wasn’t the only one traded. 

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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Yeah the issue is that it costs nearly half a billion dollars to sign Manny if you want him. And where in the past, teams might have made these trades entertaining the possibly of signing the player to an extension, that's absolutely not the case this time. Every team is thinking of him as a 1-year rental, with exception of the Yankees. 

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

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38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1. Jason Heyward and Jorden Walden from the Braves to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins.

 

Hewyard was about the same age as Manny coming off a 6 WAR season and a pretty good career to that date.   Walden had a pretty good year as a setup man for Atlanta and was a very hard thrower.    Miller was a top 10 prospect in Baseball before his rookie season.   At the time of the trade he had had a very good rookie season 3.4 but a disappointing sophomore campaign (1.6 WAR) and his walks were up a little and K's were down a little.   Jenkins was ranked #94 the year before by BA but not in their top 100 at the time of the trade, I believe.

Weren't there some warning signs about Miller, though?   I seem to recall some of the stat-savvy folks saying he was a disaster waiting to happen and the Cardinals were smart to unload him while they could?

Or did the "warning signs" come with Atlanta?   I know the deal that sent him to Arizona was almost universally seen immediately as a bad deal for the Dbacks.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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Although maybe the one year before free agency deal  is more valuable than we think given the risk of signing them as free agents

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/9/16624864/mlb-free-agents-history-offseason

 

From the article....

 

Here are the top 50 free agents ranked by a major baseball publication just FIVE years ago...2012-2013 offseason. 

  1. Zack Greinke
  2. Josh Hamilton
  3. Michael Bourn
  4. Anibal Sanchez
  5. B.J. Upton
  6. Nick Swisher
  7. Edwin Jackson
  8. Dan Haren
  9. Hiroki Kuroda
  10. Kyle Lohse
  11. Angel Pagan
  12. Shane Victorino
  13. David Ortiz
  14. Mike Napoli
  15. Adam LaRoche
  16. Ryan Dempster
  17. Rafael Soriano
  18. Melky Cabrera
  19. Shaun Marcum
  20. Torii Hunter
  21. Russell Martin
  22. Cody Ross
  23. Marco Scutaro
  24. Stephen Drew
  25. Joe Saunders
  26. Ryan Ludwick
  27. Kevin Youkilis
  28. Francisco Liriano
  29. Carlos Villanueva
  30. A.J. Pierzynski
  31. Joe Blanton
  32. Brandon McCarthy
  33. Jason Grilli
  34. Kyuji Fujikawa
  35. Koji Uehara
  36. Ryan Madson
  37. Joakim Soria
  38. Joel Peralta
  39. Mariano Rivera
  40. Ichiro Suzuki
  41. Jeff Keppinger
  42. Mike Adams
  43. Andy Pettitte
  44. Jose Valverde
  45. Jonathan Broxton
  46. Scott Baker
  47. Sean Burnett
  48. Jeremy Guthrie
  49. Eric Chavez
  50. Jeremy Affeldt

Hmmm...lets look at how they turned out now just five years later...

  • 32 players who are either retired or playing internationally
  • 10 players who might play a role on a bench or in the back of a bullpen next year
  • Three players who might play a significant role with their current/future team, but probably won’t
  • Four players who are expected play a significant role with their current/future teams
  • Zack Greinke

 

Maybe getting players on a one year deal before their free agency is more valuable than signing the same player to a long term deal as a free agent. 

 

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Although maybe the one year before free agency deal  is more valuable than we think given the risk of signing them as free agents

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/9/16624864/mlb-free-agents-history-offseason

 

From the article....

 

Here are the top 50 free agents ranked by a major baseball publication just FIVE years ago...2012-2013 offseason. 

  1. Zack Greinke
  2. Josh Hamilton
  3. Michael Bourn
  4. Anibal Sanchez
  5. B.J. Upton
  6. Nick Swisher
  7. Edwin Jackson
  8. Dan Haren
  9. Hiroki Kuroda
  10. Kyle Lohse
  11. Angel Pagan
  12. Shane Victorino
  13. David Ortiz
  14. Mike Napoli
  15. Adam LaRoche
  16. Ryan Dempster
  17. Rafael Soriano
  18. Melky Cabrera
  19. Shaun Marcum
  20. Torii Hunter
  21. Russell Martin
  22. Cody Ross
  23. Marco Scutaro
  24. Stephen Drew
  25. Joe Saunders
  26. Ryan Ludwick
  27. Kevin Youkilis
  28. Francisco Liriano
  29. Carlos Villanueva
  30. A.J. Pierzynski
  31. Joe Blanton
  32. Brandon McCarthy
  33. Jason Grilli
  34. Kyuji Fujikawa
  35. Koji Uehara
  36. Ryan Madson
  37. Joakim Soria
  38. Joel Peralta
  39. Mariano Rivera
  40. Ichiro Suzuki
  41. Jeff Keppinger
  42. Mike Adams
  43. Andy Pettitte
  44. Jose Valverde
  45. Jonathan Broxton
  46. Scott Baker
  47. Sean Burnett
  48. Jeremy Guthrie
  49. Eric Chavez
  50. Jeremy Affeldt

Hmmm...lets look at how they turned out now just five years later...

  • 32 players who are either retired or playing internationally
  • 10 players who might play a role on a bench or in the back of a bullpen next year
  • Three players who might play a significant role with their current/future team, but probably won’t
  • Four players who are expected play a significant role with their current/future teams
  • Zack Greinke

 

Maybe getting players on a one year deal before their free agency is more valuable than signing the same player to a long term deal as a free agent. 

 

Wow.  That really screams out against signing free agents, doesn't it?

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Wow.  That really screams out against signing free agents, doesn't it?

Well, obviously some of them did help their teams significantly in the early years of their deal, but teams, in general, better have a clear entry and exit plan and get the max out of their signings sooner rather than later. 

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