Conjuring up some optimistic scenarios for 2019-20

[Frobby]

As I look at our team, I think a lot of good things start happening in 2019-20 as younger players graduate from the minors and/or mature.    Or at least, could happen.   So in these days of doom and gloom, let’s conjure up some optimism about life after Machado, Jones, Britton and Brach in 2019-20.

Let me begin with a caveat: you can’t control the weather.    The “weather,” as I define it, is the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Chris Davis contract that runs through 2022 and requires payments far beyond that.     The Yankees look poised to be a 95+ wIn team for the foreseeable future and the Red Sox look to be a 90+ wIn team for several more years.   We can’t control that and simply waiting until that’s no longer true to try to have a good team isn’t an acceptable approach.    We just need to be as good as we can be as quickly as feasible, dealing with the constraints we have, including the Davis contract, which isn’t going away.

That said, there are a lot of good things that could arise in 2019-20, that probably aren’t quite ready to gel in 2018.     First, the remake of our outfield, with guys who could be significant defensive improvements while also contributing offensively.    I personally think Hays, Stewart, Mullins and Santander all need more seasoning, but by 2019, they’ll have it.    In the optimistic scenario (and its far from absurd), by 2019 Hays is an .800+ OPS guy who plays an above average RF and a respectable CF when needed, Mullins is an above average defensive CF (or at least, a more rangy CF than Jones) who can hold his own with the bat vs. RHP, Stewart is a Seth Smith type but doesn’t require platooning and is a better defender than Mancini.   Santander, for me, is more of a wild card, but has good upside, maybe more towards 2020 than 2019 since he barely has played above A+ yet.    And in my optimistic scenario, Mancini stays as he is or maybe gets a little better offensively, and continues his progress defensively to be a satisfactory LF when needed.     Overall, I’m excited about that outfield.  

The second place we could get some good developments is in the rotation.    In my opinion, Hunter Harvey isn’t ready to help materially in 2018, but in the optimistic scenario, his 2019-20 seasons look a lot like Bundy 2016-17 — but hopefully in 40 more innings per season since he’ll get 80-100 innings in this season, unlike Bundy who was building from basically nothing.     That brings us to Bundy and Gausman, who in the optimistic scenario, take a step up from where they were in 2016-17, showing flashes but lacking consistency in the past, hopefully gaining consistency as they reach their prime.

I wish I could say that I saw good young solutions for the 4-5 spots, but that requires a lot more optimism than I want to conjure right now.    We have some candidates, or maybe some veteran signed does an adequate job.    In any event, you don’t have to squint too hard to think our 2019-20 rotation could be average or a little above, and certainly a lot better than in 2016-17.

For the infield, I think the $64 question is whether we extend Schoop.    I say, we need to do it.   If so, we have an above average offensive infielder at either 2B or 3B.    And we have Beckham, who in my optimistic scenario proves to be an average if erratic SS (but hopefully a bit less erratic than he is now), and above average offensively for a SS.    My personal view is that Beckham has good upside.   He’s not the all-star level player he looked like in August, and he’ll probably be prone to hot and cold spells, but overall I see a 2.5-3 WAR SS as reasonable to hope for.

I like our options at catcher, though there will be some growing pains in 2018.     Caleb straddles between capable starter and capable back-up, and he’s a very team-oriented guy who undoubtedly will be a good mentor for the younger catchers.    By 2019, if not before, Sisco will be outhitting Caleb, and in the optimistic scenario, he’s an adequate if not inspiring defender.    I really like Wynns as the third option, pretty close to Caleb’s skill set and from all accounts a very high quality person and teammate.

Obviously, not everything in my rosy scenario will happen, but I think it’s not crazy to think a lot of it will.   Also obviously, I’ve left some gaping questions: 

1.   Does Davis continue to be as unproductive as in 2017, or worse?

2.   Ditto Trumbo, but at least he’s gone by 2020, and may be tradeable before then?

3.   Who fills the void at 3B?    Can Mountcastle develop into a serviceable defender there?    Do we put Schoop in that spot and find a 2B?    Is there a lesser free agent who can fill the void?

4.    Can the bullpen remain above average?   Sure maybe Givens can be a decent closer, and maybe O’Day can be a set-up option through the end of his contract in 2019, but who fills Givens’ old role, and Brach’s?    

Those are big questions, and there are a lot of scenarios with the outfield, so starting pitching etc. that aren’t as rosy as I’m hoping.   But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that we will be mired in last place for multiple years.     There’s the core of a team I could get excited about here.     I’d push hard on a Schoop extension and see what we can do on Gausman too this winter, and think about Bundy if he has a healthy and effective 2018.    With some things breaking our way, this can still be a fun team to root for.    

[Aristotelian]

Our team as constructed last year was competitive in August with one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. The only major loss we have to deal with is Britton. So far we haven't done anything to correct the pitching but just a couple of league average pitchers to fill out the rotation with incremental improvement from Gausman and Bundy would be a major improvement from last year. I think it is still possible they pick up a Miggy/Cashner type and roll with it. Then decide at the break if it is worth going all in.

I don't think this will work, more because the division is going to be even stronger this year than it was last year. But I could see us being over .500. Maybe Stanton, Judge, and Betts all need TJ surgery. 

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I look at our team, I think a lot of good things start happening in 2019-20 as younger players graduate from the minors and/or mature.    Or at least, could happen.   So in these days of doom and gloom, let’s conjure up some optimism about life after Machado, Jones, Britton and Brach in 2019-20.

Let me begin with a caveat: you can’t control the weather.    The “weather,” as I define it, is the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Chris Davis contract that runs through 2022 and requires payments far beyond that.     The Yankees look poised to be a 95+ wIn team for the foreseeable future and the Red Sox look to be a 90+ wIn team for several more years.   We can’t control that and simply waiting until that’s no longer true to try to have a good team isn’t an acceptable approach.    We just need to be as good as we can be as quickly as feasible, dealing with the constraints we have, including the Davis contract, which isn’t going away.

That said, there are a lot of good things that could arise in 2019-20, that probably aren’t quite ready to gel in 2018.     First, the remake of our outfield, with guys who could be significant defensive improvements while also contributing offensively.    I personally think Hays, Stewart, Mullins and Santander all need more seasoning, but by 2019, they’ll have it.    In the optimistic scenario (and its far from absurd), by 2019 Hays is an .800+ OPS guy who plays an above average RF and a respectable CF when needed, Mullins is an above average defensive CF (or at least, a more rangy CF than Jones) who can hold his own with the bat vs. RHP, Stewart is a Seth Smith type but doesn’t require platooning and is a better defender than Mancini.   Santander, for me, is more of a wild card, but has good upside, maybe more towards 2020 than 2019 since he barely has played above A+ yet.    And in my optimistic scenario, Mancini stays as he is or maybe gets a little better offensively, and continues his progress defensively to be a satisfactory LF when needed.     Overall, I’m excited about that outfield.  

The second place we could get some good developments is in the rotation.    In my opinion, Hunter Harvey isn’t ready to help materially in 2018, but in the optimistic scenario, his 2019-20 seasons look a lot like Bundy 2016-17 — but hopefully in 40 more innings per season since he’ll get 80-100 innings in this season, unlike Bundy who was building from basically nothing.     That brings us to Bundy and Gausman, who in the optimistic scenario, take a step up from where they were in 2016-17, showing flashes but lacking consistency in the past, hopefully gaining consistency as they reach their prime.

I wish I could say that I saw good young solutions for the 4-5 spots, but that requires a lot more optimism than I want to conjure right now.    We have some candidates, or maybe some veteran signed does an adequate job.    In any event, you don’t have to squint too hard to think our 2019-20 rotation could be average or a little above, and certainly a lot better than in 2016-17.

For the infield, I think the $64 question is whether we extend Schoop.    I say, we need to do it.   If so, we have an above average offensive infielder at either 2B or 3B.    And we have Beckham, who in my optimistic scenario proves to be an average if erratic SS (but hopefully a bit less erratic than he is now), and above average offensively for a SS.    My personal view is that Beckham has good upside.   He’s not the all-star level player he looked like in August, and he’ll probably be prone to hot and cold spells, but overall I see a 2.5-3 WAR SS as reasonable to hope for.

I like our options at catcher, though there will be some growing pains in 2018.     Caleb straddles between capable starter and capable back-up, and he’s a very team-oriented guy who undoubtedly will be a good mentor for the younger catchers.    By 2019, if not before, Sisco will be outhitting Caleb, and in the optimistic scenario, he’s an adequate if not inspiring defender.    I really like Wynns as the third option, pretty close to Caleb’s skill set and from all accounts a very high quality person and teammate.

Obviously, not everything in my rosy scenario will happen, but I think it’s not crazy to think a lot of it will.   Also obviously, I’ve left some gaping questions: 

1.   Does Davis continue to be as unproductive as in 2017, or worse?

2.   Ditto Trumbo, but at least he’s gone by 2020, and may be tradeable before then?

3.   Who fills the void at 3B?    Can Mountcastle develop into a serviceable defender there?    Do we put Schoop in that spot and find a 2B?    Is there a lesser free agent who can fill the void?

4.    Can the bullpen remain above average?   Sure maybe Givens can be a decent closer, and maybe O’Day can be a set-up option through the end of his contract in 2019, but who fills Givens’ old role, and Brach’s?    

Those are big questions, and there are a lot of scenarios with the outfield, so starting pitching etc. that aren’t as rosy as I’m hoping.   But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that we will be mired in last place for multiple years.     There’s the core of a team I could get excited about here.     I’d push hard on a Schoop extension and see what we can do on Gausman too this winter, and think about Bundy if he has a healthy and effective 2018.    With some things breaking our way, this can still be a fun team to root for.    

Nice Christmas/Chanukah present - thanks!  Yes it's rosy but not unreasonable.  However, in the rosiest of scenarios the O's are probably not much better than Tampa Bay or Toronto.  Knocking at the door with some upside youth but not much hope to stand and deliver vs. the Yanks and Sox, imo. Still a lot more rosy than the real lean years.  I'm looking more and more forward to seeing D J Stewart and Cedric Mullins.  I hope we keep Schoop (if he wants to stay here) and see if Mountcastle's bat will play in MLB as all predict it will.  2018 looks dire at the moment but I'll keep reading all the threads as we approach Spring Training.  I haven't decided if I want to bother with the MLB package for 2018.  Enjoy the week off from news!  Festivus for the rest of us!

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I look at our team, I think a lot of good things start happening in 2019-20 as younger players graduate from the minors and/or mature.    Or at least, could happen.   So in these days of doom and gloom, let’s conjure up some optimism about life after Machado, Jones, Britton and Brach in 2019-20.

Let me begin with a caveat: you can’t control the weather.    The “weather,” as I define it, is the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Chris Davis contract that runs through 2022 and requires payments far beyond that.     The Yankees look poised to be a 95+ wIn team for the foreseeable future and the Red Sox look to be a 90+ wIn team for several more years.   We can’t control that and simply waiting until that’s no longer true to try to have a good team isn’t an acceptable approach.    We just need to be as good as we can be as quickly as feasible, dealing with the constraints we have, including the Davis contract, which isn’t going away.

That said, there are a lot of good things that could arise in 2019-20, that probably aren’t quite ready to gel in 2018.     First, the remake of our outfield, with guys who could be significant defensive improvements while also contributing offensively.    I personally think Hays, Stewart, Mullins and Santander all need more seasoning, but by 2019, they’ll have it.    In the optimistic scenario (and its far from absurd), by 2019 Hays is an .800+ OPS guy who plays an above average RF and a respectable CF when needed, Mullins is an above average defensive CF (or at least, a more rangy CF than Jones) who can hold his own with the bat vs. RHP, Stewart is a Seth Smith type but doesn’t require platooning and is a better defender than Mancini.   Santander, for me, is more of a wild card, but has good upside, maybe more towards 2020 than 2019 since he barely has played above A+ yet.    And in my optimistic scenario, Mancini stays as he is or maybe gets a little better offensively, and continues his progress defensively to be a satisfactory LF when needed.     Overall, I’m excited about that outfield.  

The second place we could get some good developments is in the rotation.    In my opinion, Hunter Harvey isn’t ready to help materially in 2018, but in the optimistic scenario, his 2019-20 seasons look a lot like Bundy 2016-17 — but hopefully in 40 more innings per season since he’ll get 80-100 innings in this season, unlike Bundy who was building from basically nothing.     That brings us to Bundy and Gausman, who in the optimistic scenario, take a step up from where they were in 2016-17, showing flashes but lacking consistency in the past, hopefully gaining consistency as they reach their prime.

I wish I could say that I saw good young solutions for the 4-5 spots, but that requires a lot more optimism than I want to conjure right now.    We have some candidates, or maybe some veteran signed does an adequate job.    In any event, you don’t have to squint too hard to think our 2019-20 rotation could be average or a little above, and certainly a lot better than in 2016-17.

For the infield, I think the $64 question is whether we extend Schoop.    I say, we need to do it.   If so, we have an above average offensive infielder at either 2B or 3B.    And we have Beckham, who in my optimistic scenario proves to be an average if erratic SS (but hopefully a bit less erratic than he is now), and above average offensively for a SS.    My personal view is that Beckham has good upside.   He’s not the all-star level player he looked like in August, and he’ll probably be prone to hot and cold spells, but overall I see a 2.5-3 WAR SS as reasonable to hope for.

I like our options at catcher, though there will be some growing pains in 2018.     Caleb straddles between capable starter and capable back-up, and he’s a very team-oriented guy who undoubtedly will be a good mentor for the younger catchers.    By 2019, if not before, Sisco will be outhitting Caleb, and in the optimistic scenario, he’s an adequate if not inspiring defender.    I really like Wynns as the third option, pretty close to Caleb’s skill set and from all accounts a very high quality person and teammate.

Obviously, not everything in my rosy scenario will happen, but I think it’s not crazy to think a lot of it will.   Also obviously, I’ve left some gaping questions: 

1.   Does Davis continue to be as unproductive as in 2017, or worse?

2.   Ditto Trumbo, but at least he’s gone by 2020, and may be tradeable before then?

3.   Who fills the void at 3B?    Can Mountcastle develop into a serviceable defender there?    Do we put Schoop in that spot and find a 2B?    Is there a lesser free agent who can fill the void?

4.    Can the bullpen remain above average?   Sure maybe Givens can be a decent closer, and maybe O’Day can be a set-up option through the end of his contract in 2019, but who fills Givens’ old role, and Brach’s?    

Those are big questions, and there are a lot of scenarios with the outfield, so starting pitching etc. that aren’t as rosy as I’m hoping.   But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that we will be mired in last place for multiple years.     There’s the core of a team I could get excited about here.     I’d push hard on a Schoop extension and see what we can do on Gausman too this winter, and think about Bundy if he has a healthy and effective 2018.    With some things breaking our way, this can still be a fun team to root for.    

Good post Frobby. But this old fart hates to have to wait. Fan near 60 years and to see what this team has become is disgusting. 

[theobird]

Oh yeah, I will always hold out hope that lots of good breaks fall right for us and somehow the O's can remain relevant. That is why I am not a front runner, just a lifelong O's fan. But I agree with Tx, this is a disgusting situation we have found ourselves in. My big hope is that some of these expiring contracts are not renewed, especially the GM, and we can get some professional management in Baltimore. I have seen enough of this staff.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Keep in mind, under that scenario, we have money to spend.

[Luke-OH]

All it takes is one prospect becoming a star level player to completely change a team’s outlook. Unlikely, but not impossible. Also, a fringe prospect turning into an average regular or better really helps too. I think the team’s competitiveness in the next couple seasons is going to depend on how Hays, Stewart, Mullins, Harvey, Akin, Scott, and Santander turn out.  There are a huge range of potential outcomes but even the median outcome would give the O’s a strong cheap core.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

All it takes is one prospect becoming a star level player to completely change a team’s outlook. Unlikely, but not impossible. Also, a fringe prospect turning into an average regular or better really helps too. I think the team’s competitiveness in the next couple seasons is going to depend on how Hays, Stewart, Mullins, Harvey, Akin, Scott, and Santander turn out.  There are a huge range of potential outcomes but even the median outcome would give the O’s a strong cheap core.

Yes, this has occurred to me.   What if Hays puts up major league numbers in the vicinity of his AA numbers a year or two down the road?   What if Mancini ramps it up a notch?  Etc.

At the end of the day, though, it’s mostly about Gausman/Bundy/Harvey.    If what we’ve seen is as good as Gausman and Bundy are going to get, and if Harvey doesn’t pan out as a MOR or better starter, I just don’t see how our pitching gets where it needs to be.   Of course, there’s always the unforeseen gift like Rodrigo Lopez, Jeremy Guthrie or Miguel Gonzalez, but a guy like that pops up once or twice a decade if you’re lucky.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Excellent analysis. I like our recent Rule 5 guys. And the system is now ranked in middle. I think signing Schoop long term is key and having another two years of a productive drafts. 

It would be nice to hit on our no. 11 pick and our supplemental.    

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Excellent analysis. I like our recent Rule 5 guys. And the system is now ranked in middle. I think signing Schoop long term is key and having another two years of a productive drafts. 

I’m biased of course because you tend to like what you’ve looked at a lot, but I’d say the system is better than middle rung. I haven’t gone through all the other teams to see exactly where the Orioles fit but they arguably have 10 guys who are top 200 prospects, that’s pretty good. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It would be nice to hit on our no. 11 pick and our supplemental.    

Ryan Rolison...LHP...Ole Miss sophomore...

[sportsfan8703]

We have a bunch of OF prospects and relievers.  We just lack SP and IF prospects. If we could just lock up our young guys and make a savvy trade for a SP, it doesn’t look so gloomy. 

[wildcard]

Harvey? Akin?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Great post Frobby!

Ideally in 2019, the team has the following shape:

Stewart, Mullins, Hays in the outfield. Hays and Mullins are both very capable center fielders and Mullins can excel at all 3 spots. Stewart is the weakest defender of the 3, but you can alternate between him and one of those two, with Santander in right to cover with Stewart being a power/speed lefty off the bench. Either way, those three in the same lineup is exciting (as Bowie got to enjoy this year.)

Once out from under Trumbos contract, Mancini can slide into the DH spot and spell Davis at 1st. His batting numbers might improve when he doesn't have to learn a new position and after the year he had, imagine an improvement!

A rotation of Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, and Akin as home grown arms could be a potential. Wells might pop up around that time too in a starter role, or bump Akin to a long relief/swingman role if both continue the way they are. Tanner Scott possibly being groomed as a starter too, but would likely best be served out of the pen. Givens as a closer with some free agent help to get to him isn't the worst thing.

Depending on his defense in 2018, Sisco could be here as the starter in 2019 with a tandem with Wynns. Caleb could still be here and mentor, or be in AAA or traded elsewhere for that bullpen help. Sisco with the offense, Wynns with the defense, with both improving a bit more on the other ends would be a good 1-2.

Davis will still be at 1st, barring some miracle. Schoop should still be at 2nd. Depending on this season and the Machado thing, Beckham may still be shortstop, or not here at all. If he isn't here, expect a free agent. The closest to a shortstop in the minors right now is Erick Salcedo, Adrian Marin (both likely org guys anyway), Chris Clare (needs some progress but wasn't bad when challenged in his A+ promotion), and Adam Hall (in the GCL, so years away.) There isn't a real definitive replacement at 3rd, with the doubts on Mountcastle in the infield. If he doesn't make progress, either a cheap veteran or maybe Jomar Reyes could be a potential name, if he can keep his head in the game and prove that his half season this year and the step up he took last year aren't just flukes. Drew Dosch could be a stop gap if he can produce and cut down on his errors at Norfolk in 2018, which killed him.

[Frobby]

I’m holding fire on expecting too much out of Akin or Scott.    2018 will tell a lot about those two.  I could say the same of Harvey, but I have more confidence in him.