SP Openings Across MLB

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Orange said:

So how many MLB rotation spots do you think are waiting to be filled by FA’s?

That’s very hard to say.    There are lots of open rotation spots, but how many of them will be filled out by free agents, as opposed to younger pitchers under teams’ control, is hard to know.   

Put it this way: there were only 125 pitchers in MLB who threw 100 innings last year, and I think about 25 of those were free agents this offseason.   So that’s at least 40 rotation spots that were open as the offseason began, probably more.   

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

It looks like the O's are going to have to take on some risk and overpay if they want to be better than a .500 year in 2017.

I’m pretty sure they won’t be over .500 in 2017 even if they pay an infinite amount.    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That’s very hard to say.    There are lots of open rotation spots, but how many of them will be filled out by free agents, as opposed to younger pitchers under teams’ control, is hard to know.   

Put it this way: there were only 125 pitchers in MLB who threw 100 innings last year, and I think about 25 of those were free agents this offseason.   So that’s at least 40 rotation spots that were open as the offseason began, probably more.   

How many pitchers, on average, graduate from the minors and pitch 100+ innings?

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many pitchers, on average, graduate from the minors and pitch 100+ innings?

Very few throw 100+ innings in literally their first year in the majors.  Last year there were 6.    But you have a lot of guys who had some prior but limited major league experience who get over the 100-inning limit for the first time in a particular year.   There are 41 pitchers who debuted in the majors in 2016 who by now have pitched 100+ innings, and of those,  31 have made at least 15 starts.    My wild guess would be that maybe 20 of them pitched 100 innings in 2017.   Add those to the six who did it in their debut year in 2017, and I’d say maybe 25 guys a year throw 100 innings for the first time.    

Just looking at the Orioles for the last 10 years (granted, not necessarily a representative team):

2008 - Olson

2009 - Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez

2010 - Matusz, Arrieta

2011 - Britton, Simon

2012 - Chen, Gonzakez

2013 - Tillman

2014 - Gausman

2015 - Nobody

2016 - Bundy

2017 - Nobody

13 guys in 10 years.

 

 

 

[backwardsk]

Just now, Frobby said:

Very few throw 100+ innings in literally their first year in the majors.  Last year there were 6.    But you have a lot of guys who had some prior but limited major league experience who get over the 100-inning limit for the first time in a particular year.   There are 41 pitchers who debuted in the majors in 2016 who by now have pitched 100+ innings, and of those,  31 have made at least 15 starts.    My wild guess would be that maybe 20 of them pitched 100 innings in 2017.   Add those to the six who did it in their debut year in 2017, and I’d say maybe 25 guys a year throw 100 innings for the first time.    

Just looking at the Orioles for the last 10 years (granted, not necessarily a representative team):

2008 - Olson

2009 - Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez

2010 - Matusz, Arrieta

2011 - Britton, Simon

2012 - Chen, Gonzakez

2013 - Tillman

2014 - Gausman

2015 - Nobody

2016 - Bundy

2017 - Nobody

13 guys in 10 years.

 

 

 

At least the 2015 and 2017 guys make up 40% of our 2018 rotation. 

[nadecir]

Maybe Dan Duquette is actually being coy here, and his real plan is for the Orioles to tank this season.  He and the Orioles would never admit publically to tanking.  Teams will always say they are building to compete for a playoff run every offseason.  But if tanking is indeed Duquette's strategy for this season, then at least he has a plan.

The odds of the Orioles competing for a wild-card berth this season is low.  Getting a top-five draft pick next year would be worth watching the Orioles suffer with some very young, inexperienced starting pitching.

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, nadecir said:

Maybe Dan Duquette is actually being coy here, and his real plan is for the Orioles to tank this season.  He and the Orioles would never admit publically to tanking.  Teams will always say they are building to compete for a playoff run every offseason.  But if tanking is indeed Duquette's strategy for this season, then at least he has a plan.

The odds of the Orioles competing for a wild-card berth this season is low.  Getting a top-five draft pick next year would be worth watching the Orioles suffer with some very young, inexperienced starting pitching.

If that were the case, they would have traded Machado by now.

[nadecir]

Just now, Yardball85 said:

If that were the case, they would have traded Machado by now.

I will give Duquette until opening day to move Machado.    There is no harm in waiting until you have to start paying him the $16 million.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, nadecir said:

Maybe Dan Duquette is actually being coy here, and his real plan is for the Orioles to tank this season.  He and the Orioles would never admit publically to tanking.  Teams will always say they are building to compete for a playoff run every offseason.  But if tanking is indeed Duquette's strategy for this season, then at least he has a plan.

The odds of the Orioles competing for a wild-card berth this season is low.  Getting a top-five draft pick next year would be worth watching the Orioles suffer with some very young, inexperienced starting pitching.

Do you think ownership would sign off on a plan like that?

BTW teams have recently embraced the idea of openly rebuilding, look at the Astros and Braves for instance.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think ownership would sign off on a plan like that?

BTW teams have recently embraced the idea of openly rebuilding, look at the Astros and Braves for instance.

Angelos doesn’t “openly” do anything.    In any event, I doubt he’s agreed to intentionally tank the season, but if he won’t sign higher end FA pitchers and also won’t sign lower-end ones with any whiff of a medical issue, the result will be about the same as if he had intentionally tanked the season.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Angelos doesn’t “openly” do anything.    In any event, I doubt he’s agreed to intentionally tank the season, but if he won’t sign higher end FA pitchers and also won’t sign lower-end ones with any whiff of a medical issue, the result will be about the same as if he had intentionally tanked the season.   

Than it will be the crappy kind of tanking that ends with a pick outside the top 5.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think ownership would sign off on a plan like that?

BTW teams have recently embraced the idea of openly rebuilding, look at the Astros and Braves for instance.

Atlanta is a interesting case, their rebuild is too new, to see how successful they was.

I do know, friends of mine, lifelong Brave fans are very disgusted with their team and the way they tanked on purpose with the moves they made for their longterm future, they gave us the short-term future.

[backwardsk]

21 minutes ago, nadecir said:

Maybe Dan Duquette is actually being coy here, and his real plan is for the Orioles to tank this season.  He and the Orioles would never admit publically to tanking.  Teams will always say they are building to compete for a playoff run every offseason.  But if tanking is indeed Duquette's strategy for this season, then at least he has a plan.

The odds of the Orioles competing for a wild-card berth this season is low.  Getting a top-five draft pick next year would be worth watching the Orioles suffer with some very young, inexperienced starting pitching.

Maybe someone like Hobgood?

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Maybe someone like Hobgood?

Considering the high failure rate of prospects, not every pick, is going to pan out., doesnt mean he tanked it.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty sure they won’t be over .500 in 2017 even if they pay an infinite amount.    

You don't think that they would contend if they signed Arietta, Darvish and Cobb to go with Gausman and Bundy?