What do the starters really need to do for us to contend for a wild card spot?

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Davis had a terrible year in 2014, and we won the division.    Manny also missed half the year, and Wieters missed more than half.   You can never pin too much on 1-2 players.    Sure, it will help if they hit better.     Lots of things need to go better than last year.   

The starting pitching was fantastic in 2014.

Having a "shot" at the 2nd Wild Card is the ceiling for this team. How depressing is that? It'll be even worse if they miss out and the core of the current team walks for compensatory picks or whatever picks they're due. I understand the concept that contention is the goal and that it's conceivable (though unlikely) with the team as currently assembled. I also think that most people grasp the idea that the concept of a rebuild, if done correctly, could lead to more sustainable success like the last rebuild did.

I think they're cutting off their nose to spite their face. Mortgaging the next 5-7 years for a remote shot at it this year.

This combination of Owner, GM and Manager has put this organization in this position by not really being honest with themselves about where they stood vs. the division going into 2017. Granted, there were some things that they couldn't foresee (Tillman & Britton's injuries) but surely by the deadline they could have identified a trade partner for Machado and still had quite a bit of leverage.

Now? (LAST TIME I PROMISE)

They'll get either a very diminished return for a 3 month rental of Manny or he'll walk for a pick. Britton will almost certainly walk, and Adam Jones likely will as well. We'll see about Brach.... all of these guys are becoming free agents from a team who is a dark horse for contention in their walk years.

That is malpractice!!!!!

(I would have traded Machado and Britton after 2016 season - Britton being an increasingly expensive closer with tons of value, coming off a historic year. Machado obviously was firmly entrenched as one of the 10 best overall players in baseball. Both had 2 years left on their deals. Those two trades alone could have filled out our pitching staff and helped to partially revamp our system.)

Yes it would have sucked to have to trade two of your better players from a team that made the playoffs, but if you're going to be the Orioles and not approach your better players early on for long term deals, and you're not going to dabble in the high end of the free agency market (unless it's for one of your own one dimensional players like Davis) ... you can't operate like a "normal" organization. You have to kind of BE the Oakland Athletics. You have to think outside of the box a little bit. Be proactive - try to sign them long term and if you can't get anywhere, evaluate your team and it's competitiveness within the division and make a call.

Or, you can cobble together a team every February from what's left on the scrap heap and hope for a shot at that elusive 2nd Wild Card.

The bar should be the division, not the 2nd Wild Card.

/rant over

 

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

25Nuggets said it is the "current projection." I assumed that meant "current," not recent. But Tampa was the worst team in the division before the moves of the past week.

I'm not so sure about that. They were better last year, and they weren't a whole lot worse coming into this year before the last few days. You can make the argument the Orioles haven't improved.

[now]

8 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The starting pitching was fantastic in 2014.

Having a "shot" at the 2nd Wild Card is the ceiling for this team. How depressing is that? It'll be even worse if they miss out and the core of the current team walks for compensatory picks or whatever picks they're due. I understand the concept that contention is the goal and that it's conceivable (though unlikely) with the team as currently assembled. I also think that most people grasp the idea that the concept of a rebuild, if done correctly, could lead to more sustainable success like the last rebuild did.

I think they're cutting off their nose to spite their face. Mortgaging the next 5-7 years for a remote shot at it this year.

This combination of Owner, GM and Manager has put this organization in this position by not really being honest with themselves about where they stood vs. the division going into 2017. Granted, there were some things that they couldn't foresee (Tillman & Britton's injuries) but surely by the deadline they could have identified a trade partner for Machado and still had quite a bit of leverage.

Now? (LAST TIME I PROMISE)

They'll get either a very diminished return for a 3 month rental of Manny or he'll walk for a pick. Britton will almost certainly walk, and Adam Jones likely will as well. We'll see about Brach.... all of these guys are becoming free agents from a team who is a dark horse for contention in their walk years.

That is malpractice!!!!!

(I would have traded Machado and Britton after 2016 season - Britton being an increasingly expensive closer with tons of value, coming off a historic year. Machado obviously was firmly entrenched as one of the 10 best overall players in baseball. Both had 2 years left on their deals. Those two trades alone could have filled out our pitching staff and helped to partially revamp our system.)

Yes it would have sucked to have to trade two of your better players from a team that made the playoffs, but if you're going to be the Orioles and not approach your better players early on for long term deals, and you're not going to dabble in the high end of the free agency market (unless it's for one of your own one dimensional players like Davis) ... you can't operate like a "normal" organization. You have to kind of BE the Oakland Athletics. You have to think outside of the box a little bit. Be proactive - try to sign them long term and if you can't get anywhere, evaluate your team and it's competitiveness within the division and make a call.

Or, you can cobble together a team every February from what's left on the scrap heap and hope for a shot at that elusive 2nd Wild Card.

The bar should be the division, not the 2nd Wild Card.

/rant over

 

Great job of summing up where we are, how we got here, and how we could (should) have taken a smarter path.

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, Babypowder said:

I'm not so sure about that. They were better last year, and they weren't a whole lot worse coming into this year before the last few days. You can make the argument the Orioles haven't improved.

That's true. But the core that won 89 games in 2016 is intact.

[Babypowder]

Just now, Beef Supreme said:

That's true. But the core that won 89 games in 2016 is intact.

If you believe the current roster is a true talent 89 win team in 2018, then yes there is no comparison to the Rays.

[Beef Supreme]

I can make the argument that Tampa declined. adding Denard Span and losing Evan Longoria is a step in the wrong direction. That their record last year was better than the Orioles overlooks that the Rays were never in discussion for the post-season from the month of April. They overachieved last year. And they are destined to be poor this year.

The projections have been consistently overrating Tampa the past five years, which is one reason I don't trust their predictive ability. I don't think they do any better than the prognosticators.

[Beef Supreme]

Just now, Babypowder said:

If you believe the current roster is a true talent 89 win team in 2018, then yes there is no comparison to the Rays.

I am not predicting an 89-win season for the Orioles. I am predicting the Orioles will finish at least five games ahead of Tampa. And that Tampa will have one of the three worst records in the American League, along with Detroit and Chicago.

[Hank Scorpio]

10 minutes ago, now said:

Great job of summing up where we are, how we got here, and how we could (should) have taken a smarter path.

Thanks. Not an easier path PR wise for sure, but fans appreciate winning. This team is headed for a decline that is likely to become a SWIFT decline in about 9 months.

How are you gonna "reload" next year, Duquette? Oh right, won't be your problem I guess....

[Babypowder]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I am not predicting an 89-win season for the Orioles. I am predicting the Orioles will finish at least five games ahead of Tampa. And that Tampa will have one of the three worst records in the American League, along with Detroit and Chicago.

As of today, absolutely. Before they moved Odorizzi and DFA'd Dickerson I'm not so sure. But, I also think the Orioles are still bad, so...

[Babypowder]

6 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I can make the argument that Tampa declined. adding Denard Span and losing Evan Longoria is a step in the wrong direction. That their record last year was better than the Orioles overlooks that the Rays were never in discussion for the post-season from the month of April. They overachieved last year. And they are destined to be poor this year.

The projections have been consistently overrating Tampa the past five years, which is one reason I don't trust their predictive ability. I don't think they do any better than the prognosticators.

What's crazy is that Denard Span was a better hitter than Evan Longoria in 2017. I knew Longo had a down year, I didn't realize how down until just now.

[Beef Supreme]

Just now, Babypowder said:

As of today, absolutely. Before they moved Odorizzi and DFA'd Dickerson I'm not so sure. But, I also think the Orioles are still bad, so...

Meanwhile, Tampa won 68 games in 2016. They improved by 12 wins by adding to the MLB roster Tommy Hunter and Colby Rasmus, who tallied 129 PAs, missed the month of April and quit after June 19. Some times, teams' records improve despite not adding significant quality to the roster.

 

Just now, Babypowder said:

What's crazy is that Denard Span was a better hitter than Evan Longoria in 2017. I knew Longo had a down year, I didn't realize how down until just now.

Span's stats my have been better last year, despite both players posting OPS+ of 100. But career means much more when we are determining the "better hitter." And Longoria was sort of the "glue." The team leader in Tampa. Span won't replace that intangible. Even they know in Tampa's front office that their record will be horrible this season.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Kind of funny how this has worked out with this core team:

2012: Made the playoffs and made a run

2013: Down year 

2014: Made the playoffs and made a run

2015: Down year

2016: Made the playoffs (could have made a run if Britton pitches )

2017: Down year

2018: ??? 

It's funny because I feel like we've had a similar outlook preseason each of those years. Almost like DD and Buck have stumbled into success. I can't really remember feeling great about the rotation aside from 2014 really. Maybe 2015, but the crap really hit the fan (Norris, Gonzalez, Tillman sucked)

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Meanwhile, Tampa won 68 games in 2016. They improved by 12 wins by adding to the MLB roster Tommy Hunter and Colby Rasmus, who tallied 129 PAs, missed the month of April and quit after June 19. Some times, teams' records improve despite not adding significant quality to the roster.

 

Span's stats my have been better last year, despite both players posting OPS+ of 100. But career means much more when we are determining the "better hitter." And Longoria was sort of the "glue." The team leader in Tampa. Span won't replace that intangible. Even they know in Tampa's front office that their record will be horrible this season.

Right, Longoria is clearly the better hitter for their careers, I'll make no case otherwise. I was just musing that I didn't realize he posted a lower wRC+ than Denard friggin Span last year. As for the rest I don't deal in intangibles.

[Redskins Rick]

17 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Thanks. Not an easier path PR wise for sure, but fans appreciate winning. This team is headed for a decline that is likely to become a SWIFT decline in about 9 months.

How are you gonna "reload" next year, Duquette? Oh right, won't be your problem I guess....

Fans do appreciate winning.

Some posters in OH has been boldly predicting failure for years, and there was 1 losing season. So yes, once in a while they do get it right.

The attitude in here has shifting from drinking the kool-aid to printing the Wildcard tickets in just a few weeks, it just took them bringing back Tillman and signing Cashner.

I doubt signing Tilly and Cashner is making that big of an impact, but it just goes to show you, how fickle the fan can be.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Babypowder said:

Right, Longoria is clearly the better hitter for their careers, I'll make no case otherwise. I was just musing that I didn't realize he posted a lower wRC+ than Denard friggin Span last year. As for the rest I don't deal in intangibles.

Maybe people put too much faith into metrics?