Something has to be done with Mark Trumbo

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, vab said:

If it is true that ownership gave Duquette the go-ahead to cut Jiminez a couple of years ago which was reported many times I would imagine the same would be true for Trumbo so I think it's possible, especially with the club bringing in and looking at so many platoon types, that they will cut Trumbo loose if he still looks bad by opening day.

I actually hadn't heard that. I wonder what the circumstances were - for example, were they in a playoff hunt and needed a pitcher? 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree with VAB.  Trumbo can be cut if he needs to be.  Way to many options.  I don't think he gets a guaranteed spot at all.  But I also think the string is longer than spring training.....

There are 26 million reasons why Trumbo is not getting cut right now.  All Star break at the earliest if Trumbo is a complete train wreck.  Maybe an extended DL stint with a "bad back".  

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If by cut you mean packaged with a first round pick you might be onto something.

Nope, I think if he sucks, they will just let him go...but he will get his chance and I think that is fine.  That chance will last into May or so IMHO.  You are arguably too bullish on what removing or eating Trumbo's contract would be and too bearish on what Manny should be worth in trade.

 

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

There are 26 million reasons why Trumbo is not getting cut right now.  All Star break at the earliest if Trumbo is a complete train wreck.  Maybe an extended DL stint with a "bad back".  

At some point, the money isn't enough to run him out there...No he is not getting cut now and that is not what I said.  But on a team with loads of expiring contracts and plenty of other options, if he gets 200-250 at bats and it's not there...it's not coming back.  He will get that opportunity for sure...and I think he could still have his bounce back year...but at some point if he stinks, he's gone. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, foxfield said:

At some point, the money isn't enough to run him out there...No he is not getting cut now and that is not what I said.  But on a team with loads of expiring contracts and plenty of other options, if he gets 200-250 at bats and it's not there...it's not coming back.  He will get that opportunity for sure...and I think he could still have his bounce back year...but at some point if he stinks, he's gone. 

I hope you're right but I have my doubts.  I see Trumbo being an Oriole for 2018 even if that means hiding him on the DL.  

[Hank Scorpio]

If he shows ANY sign of a pulse, eat what you need to eat and get him the hell outta here.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

At some point, the money isn't enough to run him out there...No he is not getting cut now and that is not what I said.  But on a team with loads of expiring contracts and plenty of other options, if he gets 200-250 at bats and it's not there...it's not coming back.  He will get that opportunity for sure...and I think he could still have his bounce back year...but at some point if he stinks, he's gone. 

Kind of agree, especially when it's the last hurrah for this group of players. If the team is borderline and he's dying out there, you gotta cut him loose. You're not going to be able to trade him in the offseason anyway. 

Will they do it? I dunno. It's rare, but not totally out of the question. Hopefully Valencia is able to fit on the team with Trumbo still on it, and they can buy a little time. 

[foxfield]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I hope you're right but I have my doubts.  I see Trumbo being an Oriole for 2018 even if that means hiding him on the DL.  

To be clear, if he is hidden on DL...he ain't in the lineup and that is all i mean.  If he cant hit they cant trade him...so the money is gone regardless...unless there is a magical or crazy trade of large contracts...

 

IE...Dodgers Kemp and $42M+ for 2 years for Trumbo $26M/2....

Cody Bellinger is only 22 and having Trumbo as a fallback for 1b could be better than Matt Kemp as a 5th OF?  How much money would it take?

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

• 3-16 so far this spring with 0 XBH and 1 RBI. 
• Bordick called him out already for seeming "in between" at the plate this spring (after being in between all of last year, basically).
• Compelling platoon bats already on the team in Valencia/Alvarez (and perhaps Walker, if signed) who are hard to fit into the roster unless the DH is free. These bats would almost certainly out-perform any Trumbo season that is not a 2016-esque career year.
• Essentially untradeable.
• He's not even great against LHP (.763 last year) and basically Valencia-esque vs RHP (.658). 

What the hell is to be done with Mark Trumbo? The Orioles have to know that the team is better and more flexible without him on it. 

DD may but Angelos probably doesn't. I don't know how much is left on Trumbo's contract but I doubt Angelos will be willing to eat it. 

[DrungoHazewood]

You mean something like using a Tardis to go back in time and not sign a 30-year-old DH coming off a career offensive season worth just 1.6 wins to a multi-year extension?  All along the reasonable outcome of this contract was paying $37M for the type of player Dan picks up for peanuts every offseason.

[esmd]

It's.  March.  6th.

Talk to me if he's struggling by mid-to-late May.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Tx Oriole said:

DD may but Angelos probably doesn't. I don't know how much is left on Trumbo's contract but I doubt Angelos will be willing to eat it. 

According to Cots...Trumbo gets 12.5M in 18 and 13.5 in 19.

[Yardball85]

He will be penciled in the lineup against righties and lefties at least 5 times a week until at least June.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Nope, I think if he sucks, they will just let him go...but he will get his chance and I think that is fine.  That chance will last into May or so IMHO.  You are arguably too bullish on what removing or eating Trumbo's contract would be and too bearish on what Manny should be worth in trade.

 

How so?

Manny should be worth ~50M in excess value this season.  Do you agree with that estimation?

Now I certainly don't think the O's would trade Manny for a #4 and a #5.  Do you agree with that?

Let's say they want a #3 with five years of team control and a #4-5 type with a full six years. 

Now a #3 should be worth 3 wins a year right?  That's 25 million in value a season.  Lets say they pay him 30 million over those five years.  We have 95M in excess value.

Let's give the #4-5 guy 1.75 wins a year, slightly below average.  That's 84M in value.  Lets say you pay him 20M for those six years.  We have 64M in excess value.

Combined you are trading 50M in value for 159M in value. 

To be honest I think I'm being conservative with the value of the players coming back since the value of a win will be going up.

That is why I think Manny isn't worth what the O's are asking.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I strongly disagree. The eye-test is not good from what I can tell. He appears to be in the same place as last year. He hasn't hit anything hard, he's taken 1 walk to 9 K's. 

I just think it's interesting that the team went out and got these platoon bats who could easily slide in at DH. Trumbo was at one point in his career better than Pedro Alvarez, but I don't think that's the case now. It's certainly not the case with an Alvarez/Valencia platoon. 

Their supposed interest in Mark Reynolds and Neil Walker is interesting as well. Trumbo was an awful gamble (evaluation), but the money is spent. No use crying over spilled milk, but there are some signs that the club may look in another direction.

Maybe I should update my locks for the 25-man.