2018 Chris Tillman

[drjohnnyfeva]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I believe Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher to average 7IP per start last season. Neither World Series team had a pitcher who made 30 starts. Things have changed. Comparing today's pitchers with those of the 70s and 80s is a waste of time. It's a different game.

I get that too, and you've helped me in making my point.  Today's pitchers DON"T do 7 and really aren't "expected" to.  But that seems to be Buck's reality... he "wants" them to, clearly... maybe 6 is Buck's real golden inning.  But we know that isn't who they are, even the really good pitchers rarely go 7 complete with consistency and our guys consistently begin to fall apart at the late 5 early 6 mark.  Call it a day for them if we're in the lead or within a run at the end of 5.

None of our guys are Kershaw.  So why not grant that, accept that they are 5 1/3 - 5 complete inning starters, and roll the pen? 

[drjohnnyfeva]

12 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

 

This has always been my issue with Buck. As a fan there are times we can see a starter needs to be pulled. Yet Buck has a tendency to hang them out to dry until it's too late. Is it that "loyalty" thing?

...I know there are others that see the same things.  I wonder what it is too.  It's like a hole in your yard from and old decomposing tree that you know is there but still step in every damn time you mow the lawn.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Taking the long view might be acknowledging the limits of your starting rotation and having arms in your bullpen that can pitch more than 80 innings.

It’s not that easy.   Only 5 relievers in MLB exceeded 80 innings last year.    Mychal Givens was 7th, at 78.2.     

That said, Buck has used guys more heavily at times — Jim Johnson threw 91 innings as a set-up guy in 2011, Tommy Hunter 86.1 in 2014.     And I don’t think it’s all about how many innings any one reliever pitches, it’s also about whether the roster is flexible enough.    This year’s bullpen is extremely inflexible, with only two guys (Castro and Bleier) who have options.    It’s also harder to ramp up to 8 relievers when necessary since our bench guys don’t have options either (excluding Sisco).   I think back to the beginning of last year when we were constantly shuffling Wright, Ynoa, Castro, Bleier, Aquino, Asher, Hart and Verret.   Not so easy this year.

[Hank Scorpio]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are using Tillman's 2017 numbers as a baseline.  I hope that is not where he is right now.   He looked better than that for 5 innings yesterday vs a tough Yankees team.

He did???? 

I’m not seeing what you’re seeing. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not that easy.   Only 5 relievers in MLB exceeded 80 innings last year.    Mychal Givens was 7th, at 78.2.     

That said, Buck has used guys more heavily at times — Jim Johnson threw 91 innings as a set-up guy in 2011, Tommy Hunter 86.1 in 2014.     And I don’t think it’s all about how many innings any one reliever pitches, it’s also about whether the roster is flexible enough.    This year’s bullpen is extremely inflexible, with only two guys (Castro and Bleier) who have options.    It’s also harder to ramp up to 8 relievers when necessary since our bench guys don’t have options either (excluding Sisco).   I think back to the beginning of last year when we were constantly shuffling Wright, Ynoa, Castro, Bleier, Aquino, Asher, Hart and Verret.   Not so easy this year.

Looks like Buck will use the DL to gain some flexibility this year.  Rasmus to the DL is the first example.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not that easy.   Only 5 relievers in MLB exceeded 80 innings last year.    Mychal Givens was 7th, at 78.2.     

That said, Buck has used guys more heavily at times — Jim Johnson threw 91 innings as a set-up guy in 2011, Tommy Hunter 86.1 in 2014.     And I don’t think it’s all about how many innings any one reliever pitches, it’s also about whether the roster is flexible enough.    This year’s bullpen is extremely inflexible, with only two guys (Castro and Bleier) who have options.    It’s also harder to ramp up to 8 relievers when necessary since our bench guys don’t have options either (excluding Sisco).   I think back to the beginning of last year when we were constantly shuffling Wright, Ynoa, Castro, Bleier, Aquino, Asher, Hart and Verret.   Not so easy this year.

I could be wrong but I think that has more to do with usage patterns within the industry than it does the ability of pitchers to handle the workload if they have been properly prepared for it.  I think the mindset of having a seventh inning guy, an eighth inning guy and a closer has pushed relievers into one inning roles.

There should be way to include a 100 inning guy in a ML pen.

I agree about the lack of flexibility on the current roster. 

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are using Tillman's 2017 numbers as a baseline.  I hope that is not where he is right now.   He looked better than that for 5 innings yesterday vs a tough Yankees team.

That’s the whole issue.   To be sure the sixth inning made his numbers worse, but even before that he allowed 8 baserunners in 5 innings and arguably had been a bit lucky to have only allowed 3 runs to that point.   Wright’s outing against the Astros was better even if you take away Tillman’s sixth inning.    

I already said, in my long earlier post, that there were some encouraging signs in Tillman’s start yesterday, but there also were a lot of negatives.   His leash has got to be pretty short at this stage.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I could be wrong but I think that has more to do with usage patterns within the industry than it does the ability or pitchers to handle the workload if they have been properly prepared for it.  I think the mindset of having a seventh inning guy, an eighth inning guy and a closer has pushed relievers into one inning roles.

There should be way to include a 100 inning guy in a ML pen.

I of course do agree about the lack of flexibility on the current roster. 

I agree with your point to a degree, which is why I mentioned how Buck had used Jim Johnson and Tommy Hunter in the past.  I would not be at all surprised to see Castro exceed 80 innings this year.  He only pitched two games before June 12 last year, and racked up 63 innings in the final 101 games of the year.   He’s already thrown 6.1 innings in the first 9 games this year.    

[gtman55]

16 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

 It's like a hole in your yard from and old decomposing tree that you know is there but still step in every damn time you mow the lawn.

Funny you mentioned that. I do that all the time!

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s the whole issue.   To be sure the sixth inning made his numbers worse, but even before that he allowed 8 baserunners in 5 innings and arguably had been a bit lucky to have only allowed 3 runs to that point.   Wright’s outing against the Astros was better even if you take away Tillman’s sixth inning.    

I already said, in my long earlier post, that there were some encouraging signs in Tillman’s start yesterday, but there also were a lot of negatives.   His leash has got to be pretty short at this stage.  

Buck's willingness to go to 13 pitchers would seems to make Tillman's leash longer IMO.   Cobb can join the rotation and Tillman, Wright and Cortes can all stay too.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Buck's willingness to go to 13 pitchers would seems to make Tillman's leash longer IMO.   Cobb can join the rotation and Tillman, Wright and Cortes can all stay too.

I don’t think Buck will want to stay with 13 pitchers for long.    His history is that he’ll go with it for short periods when the bullpen has been pressed, but reverts back to 12 as soon as feasible.   

The real issue here is how long should they kick the can down the road with Tillman?    Not long, unless he shows improvement IMO.   You can’t keep sending a guy out there with an ERA north of 6, much less north of 8.

[REDMAN]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are using Tillman's 2017 numbers as a baseline.  I hope that is not where he is right now.   He looked better than that for 5 innings yesterday vs a tough Yankees team.

That wasn't the real Yankee lineup yesterday, missing 5 regulars.

[drjohnnyfeva]

I think this has been a great exchange.  Thanks for reminding me about the inflexibility of the roster, Frobby.  I'm not advocating a full-on limit of our starting pitchers to 5 innings.  But I do think we probably have enough to cover our weaker starters.  Right now, Tillman seems to be the weakest.  Buck has to have a quick hook on him when he appears he is nearing his wall.  Whether he will or not, we'll have to wait and see.

[thezeroes]

In 2015, Chris Tillman had two games early in the season that he gave up 7 runs in each outing.  Both against Toronto, both outings were under 5 innings.  It took him until July to get his ERA below 4.00. 

Buck loves his "Track Record" stats a lot.  

[sportsfan8703]

We’re 8-18 in the last 26 games he’s pitched with 3 quality starts by him. That’s .285 baseball. 

I don’t know what move we are going to make, but one needs to happen. Tillman is done.