Who is available for LF???

[Mackus]

I think the Mulder comparison is a pretty good one.

What Bedard has him beat on in "previous year stats", periferals, and trends, Mulder had Bedard beat on name recognition, pedigree (ASG and Cy Young voting), and age. The things Mulder had going in his direction don' really show up on the field, but they certainly go into the total value of a player being traded - either real or perceived.

I'd expect to get a bit more than what the A's got for Mulder, but not as much as the Indians got for Colon.

[davearm]

I am still waiting for you to give a real comparison to a guy who was traded that had Bedard's resume with it.

The Mulder comparison is poor because of his trends and injuries.

Who else?

Interesting.

Last time we had this conversation, you had enough sense about you to acknowledge that the Mulder comp was "close".

The A's didn't have a bunch of teams bidding for Mulder...That is the difference.

But his comp is close.

Regardless, I'm ahead 1-0 with providing comparable trades. Still waiting for you to get on the board with one that supports your speculation.

[clapdiddy]

You mean two-time All-Star Alex Rios for inconsistent Daniel Cabera? Look at this from the perspective of the Blue Jays, and we'd have to give up much more than Cabrera...

I agree with this. Plus, Rios is going to remain cheap for another couple of years.

[JTrea81]

I am still waiting for you to give a real comparison to a guy who was traded that had Bedard's resume with it.

The Mulder comparison is poor because of his trends and injuries.

Who else?

I'll give you one: Josh Beckett. He had Mike Lowell attached and still managed to net Annibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, two highly rated prospects. Bedard and Mora would net you more than that because of Mora's recent performance as long as you took back some salary on the Mora contract.

[srh523]

You mean two-time All-Star Alex Rios for inconsistent Daniel Cabera? Look at this from the perspective of the Blue Jays, and we'd have to give up much more than Cabrera...

2 WORDS Curt Schilling! Any one with load of talent yet to be unlocked and playing for the O's scares me to trade them and ever have to see them again!

[Flosman]

Where are you getting that fair market appraisal on Bedard again?

Well FMV appriasals are usually done by looking at comparables. You provided one (where the house was probably sound but it was disclosed that it had a termite problem within the last year, i.e. injuries) in mulder, which i think the apprasial would come in higher for Bedard because of recent performance and injury. The second would be Colon where the appraiser may discount because of a distressed seller. However the value of two premium prospects and another player is about where the appraisal comes in at. The ML ready stuff is a red herring in that most knowledgable people on here are smart enough to discount the value of a prospect based on how far they are away and how likely they are to reach thier potential.

Basically you have been talking down Bedard for a while now and it is BS. Bedard is a very, very good young realatively cheap SP. Very good SPs are very hard to come by and have a great deal of value.

[Sports Guy]

Interesting.

Last time we had this conversation, you had enough sense about you to acknowledge that the Mulder comp was "close".

Regardless, I'm ahead 1-0 with providing comparable trades. Still waiting for you to get on the board with one that supports your speculation.

Yea but that was before i really analyzed his stats and pulled up the injury history i believe.

I have already said in this thread that i think we can get a better 3rd player but that getting 2 guys like Barton and Haren could be in line with what Bedard gets you.

And i can't get on board with the evidence because no one like Bedard ever gets traded.

You don't see top of the rotation, healthy starters dealt, who are under contract for a while, are still cheap, still relatively young and trending upwards.

Those guys don't get dealt.

Also, the other key to this is WHEN he would be dealt. Dealing him at the trading deadline, with so many teams in cotention is much different than dealing him in the offseason(ala Mulder). Pitchers generally net more at the deadline than in the offseason.

So, until YOU show ME an example of someone fitting all of this criteria who has been dealt, you have no leg to stand on.

[JTrea81]

2 WORDS Curt Schilling! Any one with load of talent yet to be unlocked and playing for the O's scares me to trade them and ever have to see them again!

This is why I'd much rather deal DCab to Texas in a package for Tex so that he won't have a chance of hurting us if he does put it together...

[Sports Guy]

I'll give you one: Josh Beckett. He had Mike Lowell attached and still managed to net Annibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, two highly rated prospects. Bedard and Mora would net you more than that because of Mora's recent performance as long as you took back some salary on the Mora contract.

Beckett is close but even he had injury issues and was dealt in the offseason, not at the deadline.

But i do think he is the best and closest comp to this.

[SteelerG]

The point that should become increasingly apparent is that you DO NOT TRADE Bedard. The fact that no one can come up with a comparable trade analogy of a player of similar stature should say enough. Why trade a young, cheap ace who is only getting better? After all of the years of having poor starters - why would we even think of trading Bedard? I don't want to hear Penn or Olsen. Neither have done anything at the ML level. I am just now beginning to believe in Guthrie. I stick with Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie and DCab and know I have a solid 1-4. Trade Penn. Trade Burres. Trade Trachsel. Trade Ray. Trade any other pitcher. Do not trade your only strength at this point!

[Camden_yardbird]

Personally, I don't trade a pitcher (Starter) without Leo's blessing. We did the impossible. We kept Leo and got rid of Sammy P. I think despite what some might think, that there is little doubt as to the effectiveness of Leo. Leo has said he will stay BECAUSE of the young talent. So I don't trade that young talent unless I get his blessing, or risk losing him.

IMO a few years of Leo as the pitching coach could right this organization back to the pitching it was once known for.

Right now that means I don't trade Bedard, Cabrera, Guthrie, or any other young starter unless he thinks they are hopeless (he may be there with Cabrera). I also think trading one of these guys is thinking too much of the rest of the UNTESTED young talent. Even Cabrera is a great value for the next few years.

Actually on the topic though: I don't think there is the LF talent in FA (1 or 2 guys) that the Orioles need long term. I agree you have to trade, but find that tough to do right now unless you are getting one of (Kemp, Quentin, Rios, or a few others.) I also doubt you get those guys for what this Organization can give up.

If you can't get one of them, then I say lets see what in organization talent can do. I do not see LF being a primary necessity until 2009 at the earliest, at which point we should know if Bedard will stay.

[Sports Guy]

Well FMV appriasals are usually done by looking at comparables. You provided one (where the house was probably sound but it was disclosed that it had a termite problem within the last year, i.e. injuries) in mulder, which i think the apprasial would come in higher for Bedard because of recent performance and injury. The second would be Colon where the appraiser may discount because of a distressed seller. However the value of two premium prospects and another player is about where the appraisal comes in at. The ML ready stuff is a red herring in that most knowledgable people on here are smart enough to discount the value of a prospect based on how far they are away and how likely they are to reach thier potential.

Basically you have been talking down Bedard for a while now and it is BS. Bedard is a very, very good young realatively cheap SP. Very good SPs are very hard to come by and have a great deal of value.

And we see the key point.

[srh523]

This is why I'd much rather deal DCab to Texas in a package for Tex so that he won't have a chance of hurting us if he does put it together...

I am a 20+ yr O's fan so I am real big on never seeing the guys we trade away ever again!

[davearm]

I'll give you one: Josh Beckett. He had Mike Lowell attached and still managed to net Annibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, two highly rated prospects. Bedard and Mora would net you more than that because of Mora's recent performance as long as you took back some salary on the Mora contract.

Hanley Ramirez 2005 = Lastings Milledge 2007: once highly rated prospects with falling stock.

The Sox definitely took one for the team by taking on Lowell, but don't forget that they got Guillermo Mota in that exchange as well.

[NJOriolesFan]

I think if we knew that we could sign Bedard to a relatively decent 4-year extension, nobody would talk about dealing him. He is a piece we need that may take 8 years to find again. However, if he is going to bolt first chance he gets, we should try to get three major league ready prospects, since likely only one in three ML-ready prospects ever make it to borderline all-star performance, which is where Bedard is at.