Give me a reason to be excited about the performance of any of our short-season guys

[Frobby]

Scanning Aberdeen, Bluefield and GCL, I don't see much that has happened to get me turning cartwheels.

Aberdeen has one hitter with an OPS over .763 - Jedidiah Stephen, who is 24 years old. The pitchers who are having some success are all 22-24 years old and are repeating the league after not doing well at Delmarva, except Brandon Clooney, who was a mediocre starter for Bluefield last year at age 21 but has done well in Aberdeen's bullpen so far.

At Bluefield, you have 20-year old Lance West (.255/.375/.660) showing some power and 21-year old Elvin Polanco looking good (.351/.400/.584). OK, I can sink my teeth into that, even though they aren't particularly young for that level. Polanco was pretty good in the GCL last year so he's got a track record. On the pitching side, 21-year old Colin Allen has a 1.56 ERA and a 22-2 K/BB ratio. I don't see much else.

In the GCL, Xavier Avery (.485 OPS) and Jerome Hoes (.651 OPS) aren't getting me too excited, and the only guy with an .750+ OPS, 20-year old Luis Ramirez (.865), hasn't played in a week. The only pitcher who looks remotely interesting is 18-year old Justin Moore, who has posted a 1.29 ERA despite only so-so peripheral numbers.

All this is just based on reading the stats, so if there is somebody I'm missing who's interesting, or if there is someone I mentioned who has good numbers but really isn't a prospect for some obvious reason, please fill me in.

[Walladarsky]

It is still really early, and things could quickly turn around, but I've been waiting to see someone wake up in the early season ball clubs as well. You've gotta wonder how much this will be factoring into McPhail's decision about Joe Jordan -- whether to bring him back next year or not.

[skins]

Its early here, I wouldn't get down on them yet. Salberg and Esposito look good, and yes they were in Delmarva, but not long at all. One of the two was nursing an injury at the beginning of the season, so I wouldnt put too much stock into a just a few appearances. Yes Cooney is a bright spot too. I'm waiting to see Zagone.

[Stotle]

Stats in those leagues aren't really indicative of anything -- especially this early on. Sure, it's nice to see great numbers, but the focus is on building fundmentals and improving how these players are approaching the game at the professional level. I'm not too concerned with any of it -- wait and see what happens at LoA before stressing.

[Duke2010]

I don't know a whole lot about lot about Bluefield's roster so I can't really say too much that would be helpful about them, but you're right, too many guys are not performing well in the GCL or the NYP League.

Tyler Kolodny is hitting .250 with 10/19 BB/K ratio which really needs to improve as that easily over 25% of the time. Right now his OPS is about .750, so hopefully by seasons end he'll be over .800, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get got. He's a hard worker who has been playing solid defense at third.

LJ Hoes is interesting because is not striking out too much at all, and his 14/8 BB/K ration has led to his nearly .400 OBP. Now with those low strike numbers I don't know if he's making solid contact but hitting to the wrong people or what, but at least he's getting on base a lot so I bet his numbers will also improve with time. His defense has also been solid as he has moved position and IIRC has less then 4 errors at 2B.

Xavier Avery's slow start has been disappointing and he looks very uncomfortable as he's struck out 20 times in 57 AB's. He's not walking a lot and with his speed he's yet to stretch anything into an extra base hit. However he is 6 of 7 in stolen bases and thats his only real bright spot.

Garabez Rosa is SS who has put up some good offensive numbers so far. After a slow start, he's hit .350 over his last 10 games to bring his average up to .297. He's not striking out a lot but (8 times in 64 AB) but he has only earned one walk. He also has 1 HR, 2 doubles, and 2 triples and he's one to keep an eye on.

Dashenko Ricardo is a name that I remember that Tony was high on last year. He strikes out once every 7 AB's and has a 3/7 BB/K ratio. His number obviously need to improve but he supposedly has the potential to be a solid catcher.

These are the younger guys on their teams who have potential to be solid prospects once the develop and gain more experience. The thing is, most of the guys have less then 70 AB's so its hard to be too harsh on them. In three weeks we might be saying, wow, Avery and Hoes are making Jordan looking good right now. Give them a whole season before we start the "there's nothing to like on the lower level" threads. Trust me Frobby, I want these guys to be world beaters just like you do, but 13 games is not enough to pass any definite judgment on these guys.

[Tony-OH]

Stats in those leagues aren't really indicative of anything -- especially this early on. Sure, it's nice to see great numbers, but the focus is on building fundmentals and improving how these players are approaching the game at the professional level. I'm not too concerned with any of it -- wait and see what happens at LoA before stressing.

I wouldn't go that far. Certainly players can improve but indicators like K-BB ratio for hitters and K rates for pitchers can very well be indicators for future success or lack thereof.

I certainly agree you can not draw any conclusions alone from the stats at these levels, but I would not go as far as to say they are not indicative of nothing.

Players with poor plate discipline at low levels rarely if ever have success at higher levels of competition. This doesn't mean players can't and won't improve, but if you look at the right numbers at any level there are indicators of future success or failure.

[Stotle]

I wouldn't go that far. Certainly players can improve but indicators like K-BB ratio for hitters and K rates for pitchers can very well be indicators for future success or lack thereof.

I certainly agree you can not draw any conclusions alone from the stats at these levels, but I would not go as far as to say they are not indicative of nothing.

Players with poor plate discipline at low levels rarely if ever have success at higher levels of competition. This doesn't mean players can't and won't improve, but if you look at the right numbers at any level there are indicators of future success or failure.

Of course, you are right. I probably went a bit over the top. I guess what I should have said was for players in their first seasons, I wouldn't get too hung up on stats. Further, the player development to which I was referring should show up in the stats in one way or another.

[DuffMan]

Players with poor plate discipline at low levels rarely if ever have success at higher levels of competition. This doesn't mean players can't and won't improve, but if you look at the right numbers at any level there are indicators of future success or failure.

Try telling that to OldFan!

[Jenius]

General observation: there is a definitive lack of pitching prospects at the lower levels, but some pos. players that are at least interesting, if not true prospects yet.

Rick Zagone is the one lower-level pitching prospect that has caught my attention to this point. His inflated ERA is deceiving when you consider his awesome peripherals: 14.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.33:1 GO/FO ratio

Polanco is the obvious choice among hitters, as he's just crushing the ball AND has improved his BB rate after a poor start. He needs a mid-season promotion if he continues this tear or anything close to it.

Kolodny has an impressive 12% BB rate and a .372 OBP...also, he has heated up with the bat and has a 5-game hit streak, during which he is 6-for-18 with 3 XB hits. And he has made I think just 2 or 3 errors at 3B. An interesting note, he has an extreme FB rate (55%) and plays in a pretty cavernous park, so unless he starts to change his approach he probably won't have very impressive BA and SLG numbers in the NYPL.

Hoes really intrigues me...his ability to adjust so quickly to 2B, where he has been turning DPs and making a lot of plays with minimal errors, is really impressive. So is his BB:K ratio. Despite the poor power numbers, I'm excited about his potential.

There are a number of other interesting pos. players that bear watching at the lower levels...Chmiel, Hudson, Joseph, and Durakis at Aberdeen, Cardona, Rook, West,and Welty at Bluefield, Rosa, Cintron, Gonzalez, and Meyer in the GCL. And obviously Avery, though his early numbers are hard to swallow given his draft position.

[LookinUp]

I don't know ...

General observation:...

Great info! Thanks and rep to each of you. :thumbsup1:

[Three Run Homer]

I agree with Frobby's original post. You have to look very hard to find reasons to be optimistic about anyone below Delmarva, including our entire (signed) 2008 draft class. A couple of overage hitters at Bluefield are hitting the ball well, and LJ Hoes has a good K:BB ratio. That's about it.

A lot of folks on this board were critical of Jordan's draft picks this year. They may have been right.

[Stotle]

I agree with Frobby's original post. You have to look very hard to find reasons to be optimistic about anyone below Delmarva, including our entire (signed) 2008 draft class. A couple of overage hitters at Bluefield are hitting the ball well, and LJ Hoes has a good K:BB ratio. That's about it.

A lot of folks on this board were critical of Jordan's draft picks this year. They may have been right.

The 2008 class is fine -- I don't see the issue.

Hoes and Zagone look fine in their short start to their respective pro careers.

Avery will take a couple of years to shape.

We'll have a much better idea about Hudson in about 15 months. Now that he is focusing on baseball full time, he could be an exponential improver. If he's still struggling to find consistency by next fall, maybe we start to worry.

Matusz will be at AA next year and likely ready for a ML call-up in September if BAL so chooses.

[BoysofArbutus]

I think there should be a ban on any discussion of players in Bluefield and the GCL until season's end, especially those who were just drafted less than two months ago.

Thank god Andy McPhail isn't going to jump to any conclusions or else we may as well call this entire draft one of the worst in history due to 6 weeks of less than all-star performances. We all know Hoes and Avery were drafted purely on potential. That means they need time to develop. Hoes is learning a new position and Avery probably had football on the brain this time last year. I'd like to see both players in Aberdeen next season. At that time, we can start assessing their progress and status as prospects.

[mikezpen]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

[Stotle]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Respectfully, this is laughably pre-mature.