Grade the Gausman Deal

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Posters have described Gausman as a #4 starter.  Heck Tony was one of them.  He doesn't have to be a HOFer  to be a whole lot better than that.   Wallace has a pretty good pitching coach.  Gausman had a 3.57 ERA and  3.61 ERA with him as his coach.   And I don't think he had to pitch out of the stretch to achieve that.  He did have a better team supporting him in 2014 and 2016 though.

But, he was hyped in the minors and after being drafted as a sure fire blue chip TOR.

So sliding all the way to a #4 SP is pretty sad.

For now, its too short a sample size, lets wait and see how well he does there.

Believe it or not, I wish him well there.

 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

But, he was hyped in the minors and after being drafted as a sure fire blue chip TOR.

So sliding all the way to a #4 SP is pretty sad.

For now, its too short a sample size, lets wait and see how well he does there.

Believe it or not, I wish him well there.

 

IMO Gausman has not been a #4.  He just had terrible defense, offense and pen playing around him this year.  That last  sentence is not even disputable.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, wildcard said:

IMO Gausman has not been a #4.  He just had terrible defense, offense and pen play around him this year.

Lets just play the blame everybody else game,.

Whatever, we shall see.

 

[TonySoprano]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO Gausman has not been a #4.  He just had terrible defense, offense and pen playing around him this year.  That last  sentence is not even disputable.

How about in 2017?
Hint, the numbers are pretty similar.  
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

How about in 2017?
Hint, the numbers are pretty similar.  
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml

Similar to what?

[TonySoprano]

Just now, wildcard said:

Similar to what?

2017 is similar to 2018.   You said, "He just had terrible defense, offense and pen playing around him this year."  

[99ct]

40 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's not our money and with or without O'Day the team's payroll is still considerably less now than it was 2 months ago (and will be even less after the season ends). And unless the Orioles' invest all of the money saved into international signings, I don't think how you can compare the two. 

I get it. But look, my point is just that there is probably a way to quantify the value of a top prospect. I don't know how to do that, but if I were a baseball professional, I probably would figure this out. Surely you agree that money is finite, and money not allocated to Gausman/O'Day could be allocated elsewhere, and its possible that "elsewhere" would lead to getting good players. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

2017 is similar to 2018.   You said, "He just had terrible defense, offense and pen playing around him this year."  

1) McDowell has been the pitching coach in 2017-2018.  He was better under Wallace.

2)  The O's defense was 6th in MLB in 2014 and 2016.   Its 16th in 2017 and 26th in 2018.  All these numbers are based on fielding pct.  Use what ever metric you want.  I doubt it come out much different.

3) O's runs scored were 8th in 2014, 12th in 2014,  16th in 2017 and 26th in 2018.

4) The O's relievers were 6th in ERA in 2014,  3rd in 2016,  12th in 2017, and 25th in 2018.

I think its pretty clear that the defense, offense and pen got worse as the years progressed.   Gausman was good when he had good support in 2014 and 2016.  His numbers did worse as the O's support got worse.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

IMO Gausman has not been a #4.  He just had terrible defense, offense and pen playing around him this year.  That last  sentence is not even disputable.

Look at his FIP, tell me what you see.

[TonySoprano]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1) McDowell has been the pitching coach in 2017-2018.  He was better under Wallace.

2)  The O's defense was 6th in MLB in 2014 and 2016.   Its 16th in 2017 and 26th in 2018.  All these numbers are based on fielding pct.  Use what ever metric you want.  I doubt it come out much different.

3) O's runs scored were 8th in 2014, 12th in 2014,  16th in 2017 and 26th in 2018.

4) The O's relievers were 6th in ERA in 2014,  3rd in 2016,  12th in 2017, and 25th in 2018.

I think its pretty clear that the defense, offense and pen got worse has the years progressed.   Gausman was good when he had good support in 2014 and 2016.  His numbers did worse as the O's support got worse.

 

Defense was much worse this year, according to your metric, and yet his numbers slightly improved in 2018
2017 - ERA 4.68, ERA+93, FIP 4.48, WHIP 1.495, SO/BB 2.52
2018 - ERA 4.43, ERA+98, FIP 4.58, WHIP 1.379, SO/BB 3.25

  Your points #3, #4 contribute to his W/L record, and not to the stats I'm referencing above.  If you want to point to W/L, he had a higher % in 2017 than 2016.  His HR9 was 1.4 from 2015-17, and 1.5 this year - again, that's all on him, not on the defense or bullpen.  Ditto, SO9 the past 3 seasons - 8.7, 8.6, 7.5.

[Finisher]

Seems like some people are just cool with moving Gausman because he's been inconsistent and they were sick of him.

That's fine.

But the package we got is not going to help us and it's pathetic compared to what Tampa got for Archer. I think we mainly got unlucky that Tampa decided to finally move Archer. I think we get 2 of the 3 pieces Tampa got had Archer not been on the block.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Defense was much worse this year, according to your metric, and yet his numbers slightly improved in 2018
2017 - ERA 4.68, ERA+93, FIP 4.48, WHIP 1.495, SO/BB 2.52
2018 - ERA 4.43, ERA+98, FIP 4.58, WHIP 1.379, SO/BB 3.25

  Your points #3, #4 contribute to his W/L record, and not to the stats I'm referencing above.  If you want to point to W/L, he had a higher % in 2017 than 2016.  His HR9 was 1.4 from 2015-17, and 1.5 this year - again, that's all on him, not on the defense or bullpen.  Ditto, SO9 the past 3 seasons - 8.7, 8.6, 7.5.

I don't understand what point you are driving at.  My point is that when supported but a good offense, defense and pen as he was in 2014 and 2016 Gausman showed he was a good pitcher.   In 2017 and 2018 when the offense, defense and pen were worse it affect his numbers and made him look worse but in fact he may have been the same good pitcher, he just had worse support.

You are throwing a lot of numbers at me but I am not sure what you are trying to prove.

The  pen decline is not only about wins and loses record.  Its also about ERA.  Gausman leaves two runs on base in a inning that he is pulled.   The pen comes in and lets those two runners score.  Its added to his ERA.  That was not happening as much in 2014 and 2016 because the pen was better back then. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Look at his FIP, tell me what you see.

I don't do FIP.  What do you see?

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't do FIP.  What do you see?

Well if you did FIP, you'd be a more informed fan.  

FIP is fielding indepent pitching, which is essentially looking at what things a pitcher can control vs. what he can't (fielding) and factoring an ERA out of it.  IIRC, it measures the ability to create strikeouts, while limiting homers, walks and HBP.

For Gausman, it's usually slightly higher than his real ERA.  In other words, taking fielding out of it, he still wasn't very good.

 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well if you did FIP, you'd be a more informed fan.  

FIP is fielding indepent pitching, which is essentially looking at what things a pitcher can control vs. what he can't (fielding) and factoring an ERA out of it.  IIRC, it measures the ability to create strikeouts, while limiting homers, walks and HBP.

For Gausman, it's usually slightly higher than his real ERA.  In other words, taking fielding out of it, he still wasn't very good.

 

I know what FIP is but I don't know its limitations or its reliability.   When is it wrong and when it is right?  I have found so far that most advanced stats don't tell the whole story and at times are misleading.   I am sure there are dozens of guys on the OH the argue FIP with you.  I am just not one of them.

For instance, just because a guy in not a high strikeout pitcher does that mean he is not good  pitcher?