How long does your blank check for Elias last?

[terphoopsfan]

Davis isn't going anywhere. I'd prefer we start the transition of Mancini full-time to 1B as that seems to be his position moving forward. If they can somehow get Davis to be a 0 WAR player then great. If not,  Elias wants to cut him and ownership doesn't allow it, then they might as well have hired Brady as GM since they weren't serious about rebuilding in the first place. Just wanted to appear to be serious. 

[weams]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aside from the fact that settlements and early retirement does happen on occasion and the Union does nothing since they have no grounds to do anything.  Now if the O's do something grossly out of the norm to pressure Davis that situation would change.

Or is there a case where the MLBPA did successfully right an early retirement settlement?

I was the one who said that a union member would never accept a qualifying offer. I was the lone pundit for a long time. Forever is a longer time. 

[TonySoprano]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But guys do retire and leave money on the table.  Rasmus has done it two years running.

Gil Meche left 12M on the table in 2011.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/sports/baseball/27meche.html

Mark McGwire retired with 2/30 left on his deal.

Do you recall the players' union "looking heavily" into those situations?

I don't recall the players' union saying peep about either situation.

 

Is it rare?  Yes.

Does it happen?  Yes.

Does the Union have any grounds to say a word about it?  No.

Call it a hunch, but yeah, MLBPA won't be quiet about leaving $92M on the table.  When McGwire retired his right knee was trouble despite surgery.  The $30M was in an unsigned extension.

[weams]

20 minutes ago, terphoopsfan said:

Davis isn't going anywhere. I'd prefer we start the transition of Mancini full-time to 1B as that seems to be his position moving forward. If they can somehow get Davis to be a 0 WAR player then great. If not,  Elias wants to cut him and ownership doesn't allow it, then they might as well have hired Brady as GM since they weren't serious about rebuilding in the first place. Just wanted to appear to be serious. 

Absolutely right. I am quite certain that they don't hire this guy without that assurance. But it may be a while. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Call it a hunch, but yeah, MLBPA won't be quiet about leaving $92M on the table.  When McGwire retired his right knee was trouble despite surgery.  The $30M was in an unsigned extension.

I don't think anyone is expecting Davis to leave 92M on the table.

What if he leaves 18.4M on the table?  (80% buyout)

[clapdiddy]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone is expecting Davis to leave 92M on the table.

What if he leaves 18.4M on the table?  (80% buyout)

I would be OK with that.   I still think that the new regime will try to "fix" Davis.   I doubt they will be successful, but it's not going to hurt them to give it one last shot.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I would be OK with that.   I still think that the new regime will try to "fix" Davis.   I doubt they will be successful, but it's not going to hurt them to give it one last shot.

Unless Davis comes to them wanting out it is sensible to at least give him to the end of spring training.

[AnythingO's]

10 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

There will never be a settlement.  MLB is the only major US sport that has fully guaranteed contracts.  The NFLPA is desperately working towards that.  If the Orioles and Davis agreed to any sort of contract reduction, the MLBPA's lawyers will be immediately all over it.  And then that would create even more pressure between MLB and the Orioles for going rogue in a sense, something that the son's will not risk at this point with ownership potentially being up in the air.  

When I suggest settlement, I expect Davis to be paid in full. Pay the $110 MM over an extended time frame, along the lines of the current deferred money plan. $5 MM a year for 22 years is far better than $17 MM for the next 4 years followed by years of smaller payments of the deferred money.

[Satyr3206]

If Davis was going to take a settlement and retire couldn't he just quit the Union?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

When I suggest settlement, I expect Davis to be paid in full. Pay the $110 MM over an extended time frame, along the lines of the current deferred money plan. $5 MM a year for 22 years is far better than $17 MM for the next 4 years followed by years of smaller payments of the deferred money.

In real value he won't be being paid in full.  Your suggestion might be lower than mine.

[AnythingO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

In real value he won't be being paid in full.  Your suggestion might be lower than mine.

They could calculate the time value of money for the $17 M over the next 4 years and the deferred $30 M over its payout schedule and then create a payout schedule to equal that amount. Davis might get more money at face value but ME might have $10-12 M more to play with in the near term for the next 4 years.

[El Gordo]

For the O's CD is a sunk cost. They'll keep him as long as there is no player who will be a big future contributor and needs his roster spot. Right now there isn't one.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, weams said:

I was the one who said that a union member would never accept a qualifying offer. I was the lone pundit for a long time. Forever is a longer time. 

Being a union member has nothing to do with accepting a QO.    The QO was negotiated in the CBA and there’s nothing anti-union about accepting one.    It’s simply a matter of a player’s judgement as to whether he’ll do better on the open market, or is better off taking the sure thing and waiting a year to test the market.   

In my opinion, there’s nothing anti-union about a player accepting a buyout of his contract, either, if that’s what a player wants to do.    But not many players do that, because they don’t think it’s in their self-interest.  

[theocean]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone is expecting Davis to leave 92M on the table.

What if he leaves 18.4M on the table?  (80% buyout)

I think he ends up on the DL for an extended period of time with an "injury" before there is a buyout.

[FanSince88]

On 11/22/2018 at 10:29 AM, hoosiers said:

I would let Elias and Sig run the Orioles for at least three years almost without question.  I think it will be year four or five before we start to see the impact of players they acquire at the major league level.  I believe 100% in the process these two will bring to player acquisition and the constant search for a holy grail of how to draft and develop (or internationally sign and develop) major leaguers.  As long as that process is followed, I would have these two run the Orioles.

I guess the main questions regarding these two are whether they can lead an organization.  That is what they haven't done and what we don't know they can do.  I don't mean whether they can build out an international scouting presence - more about whether they are respectful, attentive leaders or whether they are tyrannical and difficult to work with (which I don't expect).  We also don't know how much of a counter-weight the Houston GM and other folks in that front office were to good or bad decisions advocated by Elias and Sig.

We also don't know whether these guys (like the Os with AM before DD arrived and said we would win) will know when (and how) to try to win at the major league level instead of simply not competing and gathering prospect talent.  

Those are minor concerns about whether these guys might fail.  In terms of their background, their expertise, these are home run hires.  These guys are at the head of the line with only a handful of organizations in creating leading edge prospect valuations around historical probabilities, scouting input and other factors.  Very exciting for the Os and our future.

Great post and i agree 100%