Astroball

[atomic]

Read Astroball last night.  I don't know that it makes me think that they were actually all that good at drafting. I mean biggest successes were drafting #1 or #2.  And they failed there as well.   Also seems they made mistakes on a lot of players they already had:

Keuchel:  Tried to trade him multiple times but no other team wanted him.   Worked on adding slider on his own.  Made himself better.  At first was against all the shifts but then he started moving players around himself depending on what he was throwing.  

JD Martinez: Worked with someone in the off-season on his swing. Totally re-did his swing.  Then did really well in Winter Ball told the coaches and management about this and they didn't give him a chance in Spring Training only giving him 18 at bats and then told him they would be going forward with guys like Hoes instead and released him.  Their system said a guy his age would never improve.

Altuve:  Seems like Altuve they did help. But they weren't that high on him.

Biggest thing was Beltran. How he would watch videos of opposing pitchers over and over again until he could detect what they were throwing.  Then would give the information to his teammates.  Makes me wonder if someone like Bundy was showing his pitches.

If the Britton deal went through they most likely wouldn't have traded for Verlander.  So we did them a favor there.  

Big thing the book taught me is that players who are great spend a lot of time on their own working constantly to improve themselves.  Watching Video and looking for weaknesses in their opponents.   Perhaps intelligence and competitiveness and ability to gel with teammates is underrated.  Correa had over 1200 SAT.  

On Brady Aiken the team only offered 3.1 million as that was the minimum they could offer and still get another pick next year if the guy didn't sign.  Also the owner was the one who put the bid in for 5 million.  

Big Data really doesn't seem to help that much when drafting high school players.  

[Moose Milligan]

No one gets it 100% right.  If anyone expects Elias and Mejdel to hit on every draft pick and win every trade while fixing every players issue to make them a star and releasing the ones that don't have any hope....it just doesn't work that way.  

 

 

[Orange in my Veins]

I see where your skepticism lies and agree that they missed on some guys but like Moose said there’s a line, nobody get it’s right all the time 

[interloper]

Well it's nice to have our excuse ready for when things go wrong I guess. 

[interloper]

Look, even the O's are pretty decent at drafting.

What's exciting is that Elias and Sig can take what they learned implementing their tactics over the years - the successes AND failures - and continuing to improve. The tools are only going to get better, IMO. 

What's exciting is that they will implement an organized and cohesive structure, hopefully, that extends from the minors to the front office and internationally. There will be better communication almost certainly. 

What's exciting is a fresh start where the ownership, GM, and management are on the same page. 

It's not as simple as just saying, "We're the Astros now! Yay!" That organization had/has its faults like any other. But we stand to have a much better chance of sustaining success because the right people are in place to make sound decisions. We'll see how it shakes out, but that's how it looks on paper. The Astros aren't the only team that has good analytics and structure, they're just notable because of their unlikely and dramatic worst-to-first rebuild.

[pastorfan]

31 minutes ago, atomic said:

Read Astroball last night.  I don't know that it makes me think that they were actually all that good at drafting. I mean biggest successes were drafting #1 or #2.  And they failed there as well.   Also seems they made mistakes on a lot of players they already had:

Keuchel:  Tried to trade him multiple times but no other team wanted him.   Worked on adding slider on his own.  Made himself better.  At first was against all the shifts but then he started moving players around himself depending on what he was throwing.  

JD Martinez: Worked with someone in the off-season on his swing. Totally re-did his swing.  Then did really well in Winter Ball told the coaches and management about this and they didn't give him a chance in Spring Training only giving him 18 at bats and then told him they would be going forward with guys like Hoes instead and released him.  Their system said a guy his age would never improve.

Altuve:  Seems like Altuve they did help. But they weren't that high on him.

Biggest thing was Beltran. How he would watch videos of opposing pitchers over and over again until he could detect what they were throwing.  Then would give the information to his teammates.  Makes me wonder if someone like Bundy was showing his pitches.

If the Britton deal went through they most likely wouldn't have traded for Verlander.  So we did them a favor there.  

Big thing the book taught me is that players who are great spend a lot of time on their own working constantly to improve themselves.  Watching Video and looking for weaknesses in their opponents.   Perhaps intelligence and competitiveness and ability to gel with teammates is underrated.  Correa had over 1200 SAT.  

On Brady Aiken the team only offered 3.1 million as that was the minimum they could offer and still get another pick next year if the guy didn't sign.  Also the owner was the one who put the bid in for 5 million.  

Big Data really doesn't seem to help that much when drafting high school players.  

 

[pastorfan]

Interesting insights. All I know is that the results are there. 

[weams]

They won. And still have a good team. And a good system. I was not a believer. But they won. 

[25 Nuggets]

The Orioles have drafted better than people think, especially early in round 1.  (Machado, Wieters, Markakis, even Gausman and Bundy).  That's not really the problem IMO.  Rather it is in player development.  Hopefully Astroball will do that better for us.

[Satyr3206]

I personally have never liked terms like Moneyball or Astroball. It's player evaluation no matter HS, College, International or whatever. If you are 5% better than other Teams you have an advantage. If you can get that percentage higher, you might be on to something special.

[mdbdotcom]

4 hours ago, atomic said:

...

Biggest thing was Beltran. How he would watch videos of opposing pitchers over and over again until he could detect what they were throwing.  Then would give the information to his teammates.  Makes me wonder if someone like Bundy was showing his pitches.

...

I would love for the O's to add Beltran as manager or a coach.

[scOtt]

8 hours ago, interloper said:

Look, even the O's are pretty decent at drafting.

What's exciting is that Elias and Sig can take what they learned implementing their tactics over the years - the successes AND failures - and continuing to improve. The tools are only going to get better, IMO. 

What's exciting is that they will implement an organized and cohesive structure, hopefully, that extends from the minors to the front office and internationally. There will be better communication almost certainly. 

What's exciting is a fresh start where the ownership, GM, and management are on the same page. 

It's not as simple as just saying, "We're the Astros now! Yay!" That organization had/has its faults like any other. But we stand to have a much better chance of sustaining success because the right people are in place to make sound decisions. We'll see how it shakes out, but that's how it looks on paper. The Astros aren't the only team that has good analytics and structure, they're just notable because of their unlikely and dramatic worst-to-first rebuild.

I think Elias sounded like that was a key. Houston drafted well ("only" well, maybe not great) but then developing those players. Getting the most out of what they drafted.

That sounds very difficult here in Baltimore. It seems like we're always set in our ways. GMs (DD) come in wanting to implement a system all up and down the minors, only for the effort to fizzle out eventually. I guess we'll see how ME tries to implement it and how successful he is. What coaches get kept and which get let go, who he brings in.

[Aglets]

Huh, didn't even take atomic a week.  I thought he would've at least waited until spring training or something when some kind of actual bad news breaks.

I totally believe the Astros are not perfect.   They seem pretty good to me.   Not sure if you think we could have brought in better people than Elias and Sig?

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I personally have never liked terms like Moneyball or Astroball. It's player evaluation no matter HS, College, International or whatever. If you are 5% better than other Teams you have an advantage. If you can get that percentage higher, you might be on to something special.

Moneyball was all about player evaluation.  Figuring out players that were undervalued by the market (re: their contribution to wins) and exploiting that inefficiency.

[now]

The biggest and most surprising takeaway for me from the book was realizing the impact, beyond all the analytics, of the character traits, savvy and leadership, of Beltran and Verlander. Veteranosity lives! Who knew?