MLB Pipeline: Rutschman's rank if draft in 2018

[justcompete]

https://www.mlb.com/news/adley-rutschman-compared-to-top-100-prospects/c-303363898?tid=151437456

"But the college season is just around the corner with Rutschman's first game with Oregon State coming on Feb. 15. And he was No. 1 on that list and, barring any unforeseen circumstances, should be in the conversation to go No. 1 overall to the Orioles."

On this current list, I could see Rutschman slotting in somewhere in that Mize-to-Bart range, so let's put him at No. 17 and move Mize to 18. As for next year, if he replicates his monster sophomore season again as a junior, I could see him cementing himself as the No. 1 pick in June and debuting on our 2020 preseason list somewhere between where Swanson and Rodgers ranked in their debut. How does the end of the Top 10 sound?

I love the idea of drafting and building around the middle of the  diamond.  This year's and next year's draft should determine how quickly we get back to competing.  Rutschman could be the "safer" of the two between him and Witt and a great place for this Front Office to start accumulating top line talent.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm all about Rutschman.  

If they take Witt, I think brother @Frobbyand I are going to go berserk.  

[Aglets]

In Elias I trust.   

Dude has 1 more WS ring than I do.

[NCRaven]

Really hoping they take Rutschman at 1-1.  I think there could still be a good HS shortstops available at our comp pick.

[joelala]

Where was Wieters ranked after we drafted him?

[atomic]

55 minutes ago, Aglets said:

In Elias I trust.   

Dude has 1 more WS ring than I do.

You trust a guy who missed on 2 of 3 number 1 overalls?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm all about Rutschman.  

If they take Witt, I think brother @Frobbyand I are going to go berserk.  

All I have ever said was that we should wait until June to make the judgment.    It bothered me that many people were just assuming that Witt was the obvious, no-brainer choice, when he and everyone else still had a full season of baseball left to play before those decisions would be made.   Gun to my head, if we had to choose today, I’d draft Rutschman — but we don’t have to choose today.    If things unfold over the next 4+ months that make Elias choose Witt — or someone else entirely — fine by me.    It just seemed like the Witt love from certain posters was way over the top.    It’s kind of ironic how, as the offseason has progressed, Witt has fallen out of favor and now people are all over Rutschman.   He may be the guy we’d pick today, but things can change.

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, atomic said:

You trust a guy who missed on 2 of 3 number 1 overalls?

He didn’t really miss on Aiken — that was a medical thing he couldn’t possibly have known.   In any event he made up for it with the Bregman pick the next year at no. 2.    

You do raise a good point, though — no matter how good your methodology, you’re going to miss on some high picks.    But over time, if the methodology is good, you’ll be ahead of the game.   

[jerios55]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

In Elias I trust.   

Dude has 1 more WS ring than I do.

 

53 minutes ago, atomic said:

You trust a guy who missed on 2 of 3 number 1 overalls?

 

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He didn’t really miss on Aiken — that was a medical thing he couldn’t possibly have known.   In any event he made up for it with the Bregman pick the next year at no. 2.    

You do raise a good point, though — no matter how good your methodology, you’re going to miss on some high picks.    But over time, if the methodology is good, you’ll be ahead of the game.   

At the end of the day I trust him more than myself and I'd bet Aglets feels the same.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, jerios55 said:

 

 

At the end of the day I trust him more than myself and I'd bet Aglets feels the same.

Yeah pretty much.  And i'm not sure which GMs I would rather have making the call than him.........perhaps atomic can list a few that have never missed on top draft picks.

[WalkWithElias]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

You trust a guy who missed on 2 of 3 number 1 overalls?

The 1 guy he hit on of these three was the time he didn't take the consensus top guy on the board. IIRC, Byron Buxton was considered the clear top player in that draft and Correa was somewhere in the Top 5. 

Both Appel and Aiken were closer to consensus top guys each draft, than Correa. 

Like Frobby, I'm going to wait until we see how Ruthschman, Witt, and any of the other top talents produce this season before making any decision. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

All I have ever said was that we should wait until June to make the judgment.

This really can't be said enough. At these ages, kids are developing at amazing rates. One guy could blow up this spring and put himself into the conversation, and that worries me. Scouting aside, performance over time is incredibly important to me. I still remember Xavier Avery blowing up for a couple of months and a lot of people concluding that he was suddenly a great prospect. No, he just got hot. It happens to a lot of good players. With that in mind, I'm hoping that whoever we get hits all of the scouting/data standards and does so with a nice progression over time, rather than a blowout spring 2019.

In that sense, I hope Rutschmans has another great year. It would make me really want to take him.

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

All I have ever said was that we should wait until June to make the judgment.    It bothered me that many people were just assuming that Witt was the obvious, no-brainer choice, when he and everyone else still had a full season of baseball left to play before those decisions would be made.   Gun to my head, if we had to choose today, I’d draft Rutschman — but we don’t have to choose today.    If things unfold over the next 4+ months that make Elias choose Witt — or someone else entirely — fine by me.    It just seemed like the Witt love from certain posters was way over the top.    It’s kind of ironic how, as the offseason has progressed, Witt has fallen out of favor and now people are all over Rutschman.   He may be the guy we’d pick today, but things can change.

There were some guys who were gaga over Witt, but even in those conversations there were others that pointed out Witt was not top rated according to multiple services and in some cases IIRC not even top five.  I think the Rutschmann love now is a combination of offensive production as a sophomore and for Team USA, defense, position, high prospect ranking and a lack of other appropriate options - especially ones with top, multi-year production.  Clearly, we need to wait and see if another prospect does reach the lofty ranking of Rutschmann and also to make sure there is no drop-off from Rutschmann in his junior year, but as the article says - Rutschmann would be a top 20 (with hints of top 10) prospect in all of baseball right now.

The fat lady is not singing yet.  The final act hasn't even started.  But the most likely course of events indicates Rutschmann at 1-1 to the Birds (for the win!).  If something else transpires, it will be interesting - perhaps good (other candidates do reach for 1-1) or bad (Rutschmann loses some prospect luster).

[jrobb21613]

I might be way off base in my thinking but I would take the elite high school position player over an elite college position player all day every day and twice on Sunday if you considered them to be close to or equal in talent.  I mean the high schooler is going to be 2 to 3 years younger and I believe that in today’s age these guys can reach the majors much quicker. If you look at the current skill level between the two and consider them to be about equal I would imagine the younger guy would have a higher future cueling. Like I said just my opinion and might be way off. You know what they say about opinions.

[FlipTheBird]

4 hours ago, joelala said:

Where was Wieters ranked after we drafted him?

The only thing Wieters is guilty of is not living up to the insane hype this fan base built around him. He’s actually had an above board career for a No. 5 overall - a lot of guys simply don’t make it.