Who are the 25 O's on the Opening Day Roster

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

One, I didn't completely write him off and say he should be released. Two, I just pointed to the facts (stats) to back up my assessment.

His stats up to AA mean nothing at this point. You can write a very long book on players who maxed out at AA. 

Considering the options, I'd see if Sisco is able to make some kind of adjustment or see if the new data he will have access to will help him, but the fact that he was so dominated (like historically bad through his first 150 major league PAs) by major league pitching does not bode well, especially since he's not a plus defender at an important defensive position.  

Your prior post was very factual.   It had lots of damning data.  I can’t really argue with it, I just think he needs another shot before we conclude he’s as bad a hitter as he looked last year.    Obviously all those underlying numbers will have to improve a lot.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Your prior post was very factual.   It had lots of damning data.  I can’t really argue with it, I just think he needs another shot before we conclude he’s as bad a hitter as he looked last year.    Obviously all those underlying numbers will have to improve a lot.

My question would be: Is it better to give him the shot in the majors to see if those numbers improve, while sacrificing defense behind the plate and possibly be in a platoon role, or should he start in Norfolk (where he also struggled) and be given the majority of the playing time to try and work on his bat and defense?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

My question would be: Is it better to give him the shot in the majors to see if those numbers improve, while sacrificing defense behind the plate and possibly be in a platoon role, or should he start in Norfolk (where he also struggled) and be given the majority of the playing time to try and work on his bat and defense?

I’ll let spring training sort that out.  I’ll say this: Sisco’s had 557 PA at the AAA level.  I’m not sure another couple hundred at bats there will improve his chances at the major league level.    But, if he doesn’t seem any more ready this spring, I’m okay sending him down.  

[MurphDogg]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ll let spring training sort that out.  I’ll say this: Sisco’s had 557 PA at the AAA level.  I’m not sure another couple hundred at bats there will improve his chances at the major league level.    But, if he doesn’t seem any more ready this spring, I’m okay sending him down.  

Hey, it took Caleb Joseph 1759 plate appearances at AA.

[theocean]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

One, I didn't completely write him off and say he should be released. Two, I just pointed to the facts (stats) to back up my assessment.

His stats up to AA mean nothing at this point. You can write a very long book on players who maxed out at AA. 

Considering the options, I'd see if Sisco is able to make some kind of adjustment or see if the new data he will have access to will help him, but the fact that he was so dominated (like historically bad through his first 150 major league PAs) by major league pitching does not bode well, especially since he's not a plus defender at an important defensive position.  

Mike Trout had 123 at-bats his first year. He had a .220 AVG, .281 OBP, .672 OPS.

Chance Sisco has has 178 at-bats to start his career. He had a .197 AVG, .288 OBP, .626 OPS.

Not everyone is a lost cause after struggling when they come up. But, I agree with you Sisco doesn't look like a major leaguer at this point. Here's to hoping...

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, theocean said:

Mike Trout had 123 at-bats his first year. He had a .220 AVG, .281 OBP, .672 OPS.

Chance Sisco has has 178 at-bats to start his career. He had a .197 AVG, .288 OBP, .626 OPS.

Not everyone is a lost cause after struggling when they come up. But, I agree with you Sisco doesn't look like a major leaguer at this point. Here's to hoping...

Honestly, I've put enough stats out there that I'm not going to respond once again. If you wanna cherry pick some stats and say "see, he's just like Mike Trout" be my guest. Enjoy the board.
 

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

What do you like about Sisco?

Is it his below average defense across the board?
Is it high strikeout rate above AA?
Is it his falling BB rate above AA?
Is it his astronomically high K rate in the majors and WHIFF rate? 35.9% WHIFF vs 24% MLB avg
Is it his lack of power? xSLG .308 vs .399 MLB avg
Is it his lack of leadership?
Is it his lack of in zone contact? 70.5% vs 83.2% MLB avg
Is it his horrid chase contact? 36.4% vs 60.2 % MLB avg
Is it his inability to not any pitch effectively last year? .204 xBA vs fastballs, .122 xBa vs breaking balls, and .185 xBA vs offspeed? 

What part of his game do you expect to get better and why? I'm not saying he can't improve, but the numbers are pretty scary.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chance-sisco-642082?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The only thing he has going for him in all of the numbers is an average exit velocity but his misses contact so much it doesn't play.

I'm only pointing this out because I'm not sure that people really understand how bad the numbers looks for Sisco. We're not talking about guy who struggled a bit, we're talking about guy who was dominated and doesn't have the statcast numbers to suggest major improvement.

He will need to seriously defy the odds to become a good major league player at this point.

Great post Tony. Almost wish I hadn’t read that one. Haha. Sounds like he needs to totally rework some things. He’s been exposed by MLB pitching and scouting reports. Time in the minors would allow him to work on things without the pressure of results. 

Hopefully some new coaching and technology could help him turn it around. 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Great post Tony. Almost wish I hadn’t read that one. Haha. Sounds like he needs to totally rework some things. He’s been exposed by MLB pitching and scouting reports. Time in the minors would allow him to work on things without the pressure of results. 

Hopefully some new coaching and technology could help him turn it around. 

Can you work on hitting ML pitching by facing MiLB pitching?

[Moose Milligan]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

What do you like about Sisco?

Is it his below average defense across the board?
Is it high strikeout rate above AA?
Is it his falling BB rate above AA?
Is it his astronomically high K rate in the majors and WHIFF rate? 35.9% WHIFF vs 24% MLB avg
Is it his lack of power? xSLG .308 vs .399 MLB avg
Is it his lack of leadership?
Is it his lack of in zone contact? 70.5% vs 83.2% MLB avg
Is it his horrid chase contact? 36.4% vs 60.2 % MLB avg
Is it his inability to not any pitch effectively last year? .204 xBA vs fastballs, .122 xBa vs breaking balls, and .185 xBA vs offspeed? 

What part of his game do you expect to get better and why? I'm not saying he can't improve, but the numbers are pretty scary.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chance-sisco-642082?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The only thing he has going for him in all of the numbers is an average exit velocity but his misses contact so much it doesn't play.

I'm only pointing this out because I'm not sure that people really understand how bad the numbers looks for Sisco. We're not talking about guy who struggled a bit, we're talking about guy who was dominated and doesn't have the statcast numbers to suggest major improvement.

He will need to seriously defy the odds to become a good major league player at this point.

Daaaaaaamn.  

How was he ever considered one of our best prospects?  

I'm not necessarily ready to give up on him either, but IMO, he's got a short leash.  

[eddie83]

If his defense doesn’t improve I don’t know how much his bat matters. 

Is this someone that even if he came close to his offensive ceiling would be able to hit enough to play elsewhere?  To me either he is a catcher or they should turn him into a jack of all trades utility player. I would exhaust the catching option first.  

I do hope part of his issues offensively will be improved with the new regime. Perhaps the environment last year around a veteran club that was going nowhere didn’t help. 

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Daaaaaaamn.  

How was he ever considered one of our best prospects?  

I'm not necessarily ready to give up on him either, but IMO, he's got a short leash.  

It goes to show how hard it is to define prospects. Without statcast information, it's really tough to spot some of these things. But honestly, even if we did have statcast information, it does not equate whether or not he can make the jump against better stuff at higher levels. Until we can start getting statcast information on minor leaguers, it's tough to do an assessment off quality of pitching faced. Remember, minor leaguer "prospects" are having success against minor league pitchers.

That success gives us an indication that he should have success in the majors, but until he starts to face major league stuff, we won't totally know if they can make the adjustments. With minor league statcast information, we'd be able to see how they hit against certain pitches and velocity, which could give us more indications of future success.

For me, statcast information for the minor leagues is the holy grail of information needed for better prospect evaluations.I'm keeping my fingers crossed it will be made available to the public soon.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, eddie83 said:

If his defense doesn’t improve I don’t know how much his bat matters. 

Is this someone that even if he came close to his offensive ceiling would be able to hit enough to play elsewhere?  To me either he is a catcher or they should turn him into a jack of all trades utility player. I would exhaust the catching option first.  

I do hope part of his issues offensively will be improved with the new regime. Perhaps the environment last year around a veteran club that was going nowhere didn’t help. 

With his very slow foot speed, it would be doubtful he could play anywhere effectively other than possibly first base, and he doesn't have the power to play there.

[HowAboutThat]

14 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, I've put enough stats out there that I'm not going to respond once again. If you wanna cherry pick some stats and say "see, he's just like Mike Trout" be my guest. Enjoy the board.
 

I am not a baseball expert at all, so this is a really important question. When you’re looking at minor-league performance what stat or couple of stats are most likely to translate to major-league performance. It seems logical that it would be the eye: Being able to recognize a pitch in time to swing or avoid swinging at it, And being able to make contact inside the zone, even if it is weak contact. That’s why Sisco’s awful K rate Seems to be the most damning. Should I be looking at other stats as to whether he can make the  transition?

[LookinUp]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Daaaaaaamn.  

How was he ever considered one of our best prospects?  

I'm not necessarily ready to give up on him either, but IMO, he's got a short leash.  

I looked at the OH's 2017 top prospect list. Just 12 months ago Sisco was our number four prospect, according to the OH. One look at the rest of the list makes you realize that high placement with the Orioles doesn't mean you're good. Hayes was our #1 prospect. One bad year really does change perceptions quickly.

If nothing else, that list illuminates just how big of a challenge Elias et al have on their hands. We are hurting for impact talent.

 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

I am not a baseball expert at all, so this is a really important question. When you’re looking at minor-league performance what stat or couple of stats are most likely to translate to major-league performance. It seems logical that it would be the eye: Being able to recognize a pitch in time to swing or avoid swinging at it, And being able to make contact inside the zone, even if it is weak contact. That’s why Sisco’s awful K rate Seems to be the most damning. Should I be looking at other stats as to whether he can make the  transition?

There really are a lot of things you look for in a minor league hitter, but within the stats the K rate along with K-BB ratio are two important stats to watch for. They give you a decent indicator, but there are other things you have to observe like ability to hit good velocity, breaking pitches, and how they perform against the better competition.

The issue is, you really don't know until they get to the major leagues whether they hit major league hitters. There are volumes of guys who could hit AA or even AAA pitching, but couldn't make that jump to the big leagues. 

The jump from the minors to the majors is the biggest jump any player will make, but if you see a trend of their number falling off as the move up to AA and AAA, that's a bad sign.