Dwight Smith Jr worth a look?

[jamalshw]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

He is.  People have pointed to his peripherals and statcast stats around here.  I am fearful the carriage is turning back into a pumpkin.

He wasn't going to hit like he did in April all year. He's going to have slumps. Now, we get to see if he's able to get out of it. Ultimately, I would consider the season a success for Smith Jr. if he's able to end the year with an OPS+ in the mid-90s or better. For a first full season, that's something that you can build on.

[DrungoHazewood]

27 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

He wasn't going to hit like he did in April all year. He's going to have slumps. Now, we get to see if he's able to get out of it. Ultimately, I would consider the season a success for Smith Jr. if he's able to end the year with an OPS+ in the mid-90s or better. For a first full season, that's something that you can build on.

I'll be happy if he ends up being a cheap and reasonably effective corner utility outfielder for a few years.  He, Mancini and Manny Machado were all born in 1992, so there's not a ton of building and growing going on here.

[atomic]

46 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

 He wasn't going to hit like he did in April all year. He's going to have slumps. Now, we get to see if he's able to get out of it. Ultimately, I would consider the season a success for Smith Jr. if he's able to end the year with an OPS+ in the mid-90s or better. For a first full season, that's something that you can build on.

He most likely is a replacement level player.  He is just holding the spot warm. 

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, atomic said:

He most likely is a replacement level player.  He is just holding the spot warm. 

Boy, you sure do wait for a guy goes into a slump before making your proclamations don't you?

Saying that, I've said all along that Smith was outperforming his minor league numbers and statcast info. He was not supposed to be an .800 OPS guy but had been for an extended period of time to start off his major league career. 

He's been below average runner and defender in left field. 

So while your proclamation may end up being true when it's all said and done, he's an interesting case to watch. 

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Boy, you sure do wait for a guy goes into a slump before making your proclamations don't you?

Saying that, I've said all along that Smith was outperforming his minor league numbers and statcast info. He was not supposed to be an .800 OPS guy but had been for an extended period of time to start off his major league career. 

 He's been below average runner and defender in left field. 

So while your proclamation may end up being true when it's all said and done, he's an interesting case to watch. 

I have made the same statement about Mancini most likely ending up at replacement level on the year. I certainly have not been waiting before guys slump.  I also have said the team has been out hitting their potential and will come back to reality for a long time.  I predicted less than 48 wins on the season and I don't see anything to change my mind. 

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

I have made the same statement about Mancini most likely ending up at replacement level on the year.

Would love to make a bet that this doesn't happen. One of the dumbest things I've read on this board.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

I have made the same statement about Mancini most likely ending up at replacement level on the year. I certainly have not been waiting before guys slump.  I also have said the team has been out hitting their potential and will come back to reality for a long time.  I predicted less than 48 wins on the season and I don't see anything to change my mind. 

But you say everyone will be replacement level so that's not going out on a limb. Now if you want to add to the board, then provide some statistical background to your proclamations and maybe people will take you more seriously instead of using as white noise.

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

 Would love to make a bet that this doesn't happen. One of the dumbest things I've read on this board.

His WAR has already fell since I made that comment.  He is such a terrible fielder in the outfield if he has an .800 OPS he will probably be at replacement level. 

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But you say everyone will be replacement level so that's not going out on a limb. Now if you want to add to the board, then provide some statistical background to your proclamations and maybe people will take you more seriously instead of using as white noise.

Well everyone most likely will be replacement level on the position player side besides Villar who probably will end up around 1.5 WAR.  I have stated why Mancini and Dwight Smith JR will be replacement level.  It is no surprise that most everyone will end up replacement level as almost everyone was claimed off waivers or rule 5 pick.  I am sure if Nunez is continually played at DH he will have much worse than replacement level season.

Of the guys who aren't waiver claims/rule 5 guys ( I consider Wilkerson Waiver guy as he was DFAd and no one claimed him):

Chris Davis:  Below replacement level. Need I say more. 

Mancini: Being played in the outfield is hurting his value. He is the worst out there. If he is moved to first base I could see a productive player

Villar:  Seems to be a 1.5 to 2 War player as he puts up a little over .700 OPS while playing around an average second base. 

[DrungoHazewood]

26 minutes ago, atomic said:

His WAR has already fell since I made that comment.  He is such a terrible fielder in the outfield if he has an .800 OPS he will probably be at replacement level. 

You know that two years ago he had an .826 OPS while he was playing the outfield for the first time in his life and was worth +2.3 wins.  

If you take off a third of a win for only OPSing .800, I'm still curious as to how he's going to be 20 runs worse in the field than he was in 2017?  Currently he's on pace to have almost exactly the same value as in 2017.  Last year, with a .715 OPS and -14 fielding he was right at replacement level.  You're implying that he's going to be a -35 fielder this year, which would be one of the very worst fielding seasons of all time.  Of course you are.

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, atomic said:

Mancini: Being played in the outfield is hurting his value. He is the worst out there. If he is moved to first base I could see a productive player

Do you understand the positional adjustment?  Mancini gets a positional adjustment of about -8 as a full-time RFer.  At first that would be more like -12 or -13.  As an outfielder Mancini has been something like a -12 defender per 150 games.  At first he's been a -2.

Do the math... that means his theoretical value goes up by five or six runs per season if he's a full-time first baseman instead of an outfielder.  The difference between replacement level and productive player is a lot more than five runs a year.

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You know that two years ago he had an .826 OPS while he was playing the outfield for the first time in his life and was worth +2.3 wins.  

If you take off a third of a win for only OPSing .800, I'm still curious as to how he's going to be 20 runs worse in the field than he was in 2017?  Currently he's on pace to have almost exactly the same value as in 2017.  Last year, with a .715 OPS and -14 fielding he was right at replacement level.  You're implying that he's going to be a -35 fielder this year, which would be one of the very worst fielding seasons of all time.  Of course you are.

In 2017 he was -1.2 Defensive WAR for the whole season. This year he is already at -0.9 WAR.  He was -2.1 WAR last season Defensive WAR. He has only played 4 complete games at first base this year.  In 2017 he played 33 complete games at first.   Last year he played 36 complete games at first base.  

 

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you understand the positional adjustment?  Mancini gets a positional adjustment of about -8 as a full-time RFer.  At first that would be more like -12 or -13.  As an outfielder Mancini has been something like a -12 defender per 150 games.  At first he's been a -2.

 Do the math... that means his theoretical value goes up by five or six runs per season if he's a full-time first baseman instead of an outfielder.  The difference between replacement level and productive player is a lot more than five runs a year.

You are probably including his outfield stats from 2017 to calculate his runs. Use this years stats and get back to me. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, atomic said:

You are probably including his outfield stats from 2017 to calculate his runs. Use this years stats and get back to me. 

Yes, I'm using the largest sample of data, not cherry picking numbers to pretend to prove a point.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, atomic said:

In 2017 he was -1.2 Defensive WAR for the whole season. This year he is already at -0.9 WAR.  He was -2.1 WAR last season Defensive WAR. He has only played 4 complete games at first base this year.  In 2017 he played 33 complete games at first.   Last year he played 36 complete games at first base.  

I'm not entirely sure what the point is.  Are you saying that the last six weeks is more representative of his ability than his career numbers?  If so, why?