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Payrolls drop for second straight year


Frobby

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11 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I think the thing we're seeing is the disparity between the superstars and the rest.  The big guys will see the big money, while the rest fight for the rest.   

There are a limited number of teams that can afford astronomical payrolls.   They can't sign EVERY player.

I was about to make the same comment. Look no further than Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Just a few years ago they would have signed multi year contracts.

Now teams recognize that paying over 30 players on the downside of their careers doesn’t payoff normally. 

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27 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I was about to make the same comment. Look no further than Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Just a few years ago they would have signed multi year contracts.

Now teams recognize that paying over 30 players on the downside of their careers doesn’t payoff normally. 

Bingo.   I think that's why you're seeing these extensions after 1 or 2 seasons.   They are locking these guys up until their age 30 seasons.   Smart moves.

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1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

So what is the key driver here?  I would be interested to know.  I'm sure it's some combination of the following, but wonder if any analysis has been performed to find out:

  • Veteran contracts are lower across the board
  • Albatross deals have come off the books for various teams and haven't been replaced 
  • Arbitration awards have been systematically lower
  • Greater mix of young players at the minimum on the roster

I would imagine that it's primarily #4, but don't have anything to back that up.  That 2.25MM delta (if we were to assume that it's even across teams, which it likely isn't) could easily be an analytics driven decision by each team to have a AAA/AAAA/R5 guy hold down the 25th spot, rather than a guy like AJ (coincidentally at a $3MM number).

This obviously represents a different conclusion than the apparent soft implication of collusion that often arises in these conversations.

Is number three true?  The Orioles didn't have many interesting arb cases so I didn't follow it across the league this season.  I know that guys like Betts, de Grom, and Arenado got huge deals.  Was it down collectively?

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8 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Is number three true?  The Orioles didn't have many interesting arb cases so I didn't follow it across the league this season.  I know that guys like Betts, de Grom, and Arenado got huge deals.  Was it down collectively?

No idea. Just trying to list all possible explanations. I doubt this one, but it’s possible. For whatever reason there could maybe be a higher number of arb-1 players than -2 and -3. 

Again, I have no idea and sort of doubt this one. I’d actually imagine it’s an increasing number that’s offsetting a larger down trend. 

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12 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Is number three true?  The Orioles didn't have many interesting arb cases so I didn't follow it across the league this season.  I know that guys like Betts, de Grom, and Arenado got huge deals.  Was it down collectively?

I don't think Betts signed a deal.

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1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

Maybe just maybe their business has employed many people. Just thinking about an average player like I guess Mancini makes that much. Just thinking how much things have changed. I remember hearing that Mays made 100 thousand a year. Yes that was 50 years ago. But to me those players then were heros of the game. Guys now no.

You realize they're all just people, right?

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Quote

Scott Boras sez:

"Every club needs to allow designation of a luxury tax exception, and that is they get a player that they can sign who is not included in their luxury tax computation," he said Monday. "That way, we're assured the teams can have a franchise player and many good players, because every sports league should have Goliaths and every sports league should have Davids."

And every managed economy should be constructed by impartial, achingly literate, nobel-prize worthy economists like Scott Boras, Rob Manfred and Tony Clark.  

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53 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Bingo.   I think that's why you're seeing these extensions after 1 or 2 seasons.   They are locking these guys up until their age 30 seasons.   Smart moves.

We're left with a situation where players in their first 6-7 years are being paid well below market rates, and teams are refusing to sign most guys in their 30s to large contracts.  The end result is that an average guy who comes up at 24-25 is never going to get that one big contract that's been the norm for the past 30-40 years.  I have to think that the next CBA is going to address this in some fashion.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We're left with a situation where players in their first 6-7 years are being paid well below market rates, and teams are refusing to sign most guys in their 30s to large contracts.  The end result is that an average guy who comes up at 24-25 is never going to get that one big contract that's been the norm for the past 30-40 years.  I have to think that the next CBA is going to address this in some fashion.

Yes, the owners will demand a cap on extensions.

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