Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[21xxxv]

Sadly for years the O's have grossly overrated their young prospects/suspects....

[LookinUp]

31 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

With all the talk about the walks, how realistic is it to expect someone to develop a better batting eye and/or more patient approach at the plate? Also, would him getting to The Show and having success, particularly with some power, lead to pitchers pitching him differently and more carefully and thus lead to more walks?

I'll defer to those more in the know on this kind of thing, but there are my questions.

I expect someone to be able to identify hitters that changed their profiles in a big way during their careers. Palmeiro and Ortiz are two that did, but I think they always had good OBP approaches and it's more the power that changed for them.

Still, this is the $1,000,000 question. You could argue that Mountcastle's approach won't change until the league forces him to. For example, if his 23% K rate goes above 30% in the majors, he may need to re-think his approach on the fly. That's not easy.

[LTO's]

On 7/20/2019 at 7:18 PM, RZNJ said:

Special bat?  Everybody in the know?  Is that why he fell out of BA's top 100?

He didn't fall out because of his bat. Don't be disingenuous. 

[jabba72]

Im curious how his throwing arm looks in the OF.  If its bad, then Im not sure this move is a good idea. 

[Pheasants]

I saw Mountcastle last Friday.  In that game, he was a patient hitter at the plate.  He struck out looking on a 3-2 pitch that looked low and inside to me. (The ump really liked low, off-the-corner looking pitches all night so if he'd been watching the ump, not the plate, he should have swung.  Hayes struck out looking twice.)  He went to 3-1 in another at bat.  I don't remember him swinging at an obvious ball all night.  Perhaps he should not swing at some strikes to avoid ground balls.

Other comments from the game: Hayes has a great arm.  Stewart looked worse than I expected in the outfield, slow.  Sucre, however, made Stewart look fast as a runner.  I've now seen two Norfolk games (The other I was too far away to judge batting.); Sucre is pure molasses going to first and does not seem able to reach back for an extra gear on what should be a close play.  I hope never to see him in Baltimore again.

[Frobby]

On 7/20/2019 at 7:18 PM, RZNJ said:

Special bat?  Everybody in the know?  Is that why he fell out of BA's top 100?  I think you have a lot of nerve to suggest I don't consider other opinions. I have acknowledged Tony and Luke's opinions. Doesn't mean I don't still have strong reservations about him.  Laser focused on one thing?  Sure, the plate discipline is a major red flag.  However, I have also pointed out that his OPS is far from "special" this year in the INT League.   He has not proven to have any value at any defensive position YET.   

I hate vague expressions like “special bat” because nobody knows what it means.    Do I think he’ll be an .800+ OPS guy in the majors during his prime?    Yes.    Is that “special” or not?   Not many guys in the minor leagues achieve that.    But it may not be enough to make him an above average major league regular.    

[Ohfan67]

On 7/20/2019 at 6:18 PM, RZNJ said:

However, I have also pointed out that his OPS is far from "special" this year in the INT League.   

I agree totally with you that his walk rate is crazy low. Of course it is a serious problem. If his walk rate was average, then he would probably be playing for the Orioles right now. But his bat is better than you are arguing IMO. Pointing out that his OPS isn't special is just a second way of criticizing his low OBP. His slugging percentage of .508 is pretty damn good when you look at who's ahead of him. Mountcastle currently ranks 23rd in slugging percentage in the league, but the majority, really the vast majority of those ahead of him are total AAAA old men. Most range from 27 to 33 (!!). The relatively few prospects on the list are 24 and 25. There's one 23 year old guy and then Mountcastle (22). Mountcastle has flaws, significant flaws, but his hitting performance relative to peers is very good, especially for his age. I am on the skeptical end regarding his future, so I'm not trying to argue that he's going to be a MLB all star or the like, but I wanted to point out that his hitting has been very, very good relative to his peers in the IL this year.

[LookinUp]

32 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I am on the skeptical end regarding his future, so I'm not trying to argue that he's going to be a MLB all star or the like, but I wanted to point out that his hitting has been very, very good relative to his peers in the IL this year.

I'd argue that the discussion about Mountcastle on this board has actually been very good. I don't think anyone's saying he's a scrub. I don't think anyone's saying he's the next Mike Trout. I think a lot of us now have a better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses than we did a few months ago. Just my opinion...

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, 21xxxv said:

Sadly for years the O's have grossly overrated their young prospects/suspects....

I dunno if the O's have.  But members of this board certainly have.  

[Ohfan67]

51 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd argue that the discussion about Mountcastle on this board has actually been very good. I don't think anyone's saying he's a scrub. I don't think anyone's saying he's the next Mike Trout. I think a lot of us now have a better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses than we did a few months ago. Just my opinion...

I hear you, but I was replying to a specific comment about his performance relatively to the IL this year. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I know what special means to me and an .800 OPS in his prime is not my definition.    Special, offensively, in the major leagues is .900 and up.  Mountcastle may put up special numbers next year when he repeats AAA.  I don't believe he'll ever put up special numbers in MLB unless he significantly improves his walk rate.  I hope he does but there have been no signs of it.   Mountcastle may have a nice long career and be a .800 OPS type of player.  I certainly think that's possible even with extremely low walk rates.  Unfortunately, I can't stop believing that ML pitchers will exploit his aggressiveness to the point where he will not be a full time ML regular for too long.  That opinion seems to make some people angry.

See, exactly what I mean.   Saying a bat is “special” doesn’t really help because two people can use that term completely differently.    If you said “I don’t think Mountcastle will be able to post a .900 OPS in the majors because his low walk rate will hold him back,” I doubt many people would argue with you.   But some people would throw “special” around much more liberally.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Huh.  I thought the very nature of the word "special" is something that wouldn't be spread around liberally. BTW, I only responded to COC who said "everyone in the know thinks Mountcastle has a special bat".

Yea, it's an expression.  One that I am sure you are aware of.  Like calling someone a generational talent.  Trout is a generational talent, he isn't the only one that gets called that.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is there a point?  Are you saying that very good, above average, and special are interchangeable.   You obviously used the word special for a reason.  Or maybe not.  Maybe you just like to use misleading expressions?  

The reason I used it was that it was the term I remember evaluators using.  Are you holding me at fault because their definition of the term is different from your own?

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Huh.  I thought the very nature of the word "special" is something that wouldn't be spread around liberally. BTW, I only responded to COC who said "everyone in the know thinks Mountcastle has a special bat".

But you were the one who inserted that word into the Mountcastle discussion, about 4 weeks ago:

You did make it clear that “special” was something better than “good,” while forecasting a .750 OPS for Mountcastle.   I think we’d all agree that’s not “special.”

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Frobby, you are special.   

That’s what my mommy always said.