Callis: Witt Jr. the best SS prospect since A-Rod

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’ve preferred Witt all along as I think Catching diminishes the player due to bumps, bruises, wear, and tear. 

That being said, the Orioles taking anyone other than AR is below 1%

What makes you say that?    Elias has played his cards close to the vest, and Witt and others have their supporters.    I’d peg the odds at 25%.   

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What makes you say that?    Elias has played his cards close to the vest, and Witt and others have their supporters.    I’d peg the odds at 25%.   

Everything I've heard is he the easiest selection to predict since Bryce Harper. His selection appears to be a forgone conclusion 

[hoosiers]

Everything has pointed to an AR selection and that seems like the most likely case, but the Callis article makes a Witt Jr. selection at 1/1 easily defensible.  We will see.  I myself remain a favorite of AR.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, hoosiers said:

Everything has pointed to an AR selection and that seems like the most likely case, but the Callis article makes a Witt Jr. selection at 1/1 easily defensible.  We will see.  I myself remain a favorite of AR.

I don't think a single article by a single guy following the draft has that much impact.  The overwhelming consensus is that AR is the pick.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think a single article by a single guy following the draft has that much impact.  The overwhelming consensus is that AR is the pick.

There’s only one person whose opinion matters.   So I don’t care what the “overwhelming consensus” is.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

There’s only one person whose opinion matters.   So I don’t care what the “overwhelming consensus” is.

And that one person isn't Callis.

[baltfan]

I found this article questionable in that it didn’t address that Witt is 19.  Machado wasn’t even 18 when drafted.  Lindor was young too.

Witt is probably going to be good, but the age issue needs to be considered.  Then again Rutschman, at a similar age, wasn’t anywhere near the prospect he is now.

[Jammer7]

The article is a lot of hyperbole to me, but I guess that is what guys like Jim Callis do. Better than Machado or Lindor? I don’t think so, but nobody cares what I think. To me, Witt does just about everything well at the highest level, so far. So did fellow SS, and Texas native, Brandon Wood, Angels’ 2003 #1 pick (23rd overall). He had power, speed, arm, and defense wrapped in an ultra athletic package. Nearly everyone raved about what he did his first few years in pro ball, destined for stardom, and then...

A lot has been said about the doubts about Witt’s hit tool. And it is for good reason. Javier Baez may have had the wildest swing I can remember in a high level prospect, but he was able to shorten up significantly and become a star at the major league level. Witt will have to make less dramatic adjustments, but there is absolutely no guarantee he will be able to do so. 

Adley Rutschman has done it all at Oregon State. For me, it isn’t just that he has all the tools and measurables, which he certainly does. It’s his grasp of the mental side of things and his ability to slow the game down in big moments that I think is a very rare trait.

Witt may end up a great major league player, and I hope he does. He is certainly one of the most hyped draft prospects I can remember. I believe Rutschman is the right guy for the Orioles as he has the highest probability of major league impact-level success for a 7-10 year span. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodbr01.shtml

[hoosiers]

Well, Callis isn't some random hack.  He is one of the premier draft analysts out there.  And he is not a scout, he is an opinion/consensus seeker who likely has a rolodex of amateur scouts that would likely rival most anyone else in his business.  I think you have to take him at his word (or the words of the scouts from which he builds his opinions) that he believes that Witt is indeed one of the best draft prospects at SS in some time.  That's all I am going to say about that.

What many here have seen are some concerns about consistent contact from Witt and that Witt is old for his age (the age thing is something I follow quite closely and believe it should be a major factor in prospect evaluation).  However, we also know that Witt has participated on several advanced teams where he played with guys his age and with older players and has done very well.

Witt is not my guy and I wouldn't take him with AR on the table even 1 out of 10 times, but I am saying that Witt would appear to be a worthy and defensible 1-1 selection.

[MurphDogg]

On 5/29/2019 at 12:51 PM, Frobby said:

What makes you say that?    Elias has played his cards close to the vest, and Witt and others have their supporters.    I’d peg the odds at 25%.   

Keith Law has the odds at 50/50. He also weighed in on Callis's A-Rod opinion.

Pat: If you had to handicap it, what are the chances the O’s take Adley? 85%? Worse?
Keith Law: 50/50.

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).
Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

[hoosiers]

I am glad we are looking at all of our options.  I expect AR and Witt are asking for top $, but they run the risk of falling to a team that is going to offer $6M-$7M or less with a take it or leave it if either falls out of the top 3.  I would think we should be able to sign AR for $6.5M-$7.25M and have an extra $1+M for later.

I know the object is to walk away with the most talent overall, but it sure would be disappointing to me to pass on the top talent.  We should take the top talent, have $ for one or two big overslots, and then try to out-draft everyone base on our scouting (as everyone else is trying to do).     

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law has the odds at 50/50. He also weighed in on Callis's A-Rod opinion.

Pat: If you had to handicap it, what are the chances the O’s take Adley? 85%? Worse?
Keith Law: 50/50.

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).
Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

50/50? Wow. I'd be furious if we went Vaughn or some other under-slot guy. Rutschman is my #1 hope. We can't Hobgood this draft.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

50/50? Wow. I'd be furious if we went Vaughn or some other under-slot guy. Rutschman is my #1 hope. We can't Hobgood this draft.

Vaughn isn't Hobgood.  Vaughn will be a ML player barring the type of catastrophic bad luck that would derail any player.

That being said I don't think this is the draft to try and save money at 1-1 to use in later rounds.

[Greg Pappas]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Vaughn isn't Hobgood.  Vaughn will be a ML player barring the type of catastrophic bad luck that would derail any player.

That being said I don't think this is the draft to try and save money at 1-1 to use in later rounds.

Agreed. Vaughn is not Hobgood... I mentioned Hobgoood to refer to the 'savings/overslot later' crap we've done before.

Anyway, I fully expect we'll take Rutschman at 1-1.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Agreed. Vaughn is not Hobgood... I mentioned Hobgoood to refer to the 'savings/overslot later' crap we've done before.

Anyway, I fully expect we'll take Rutschman at 1-1.

So Markakis.