Uh-Oh

[atomic]

2 hours ago, El_Duderino said:

Personally, I think the O’s are a lock for the first pick.

Tigers are making things interesting. Our Pythagorean is actually 3 games better than theirs.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

This thread was never intended to say that O's could make the playoff this season.   Or even be a winning team.   The point was that some of the changes made by Elias so far may lead to a better offense.  Read the OP again. The question I was asking is could the improvements cause the O's to not get as high a draft choice next June as they want.

I think some of the responding posts took the thread in a whole different, unrealistic direction.

You're still reading a lot into two wins. I happen to agree with you that the worst is over, but I am thinking more like .320 than .400 or .500 the rest of the way.

[atomic]

23 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

If it requires another 110 loss season for the Orioles to get the #1 overall pick again, I'd rather see them win games and settle for a top 5 pick. 

Yeah if the team is winning more games that means they are playing better,  Who wouldn’t want that?

[mdbdotcom]

It's always darkest just before it gets worse.

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

You're still reading a lot into two wins. I happen to agree with you that the worst is over, but I am thinking more like .320 than .400 or .500 the rest of the way.

I never said .400 or .500.     Whether the worst is over depends on who Elias trades before the deadline.  My OP simply questions whether Elias as added players that may help the offense.  I actually say the pitching is bad.  I ask the question whether the better offense  will add enough wins  to will keep the team from getting the top draft choice.

You and several others are reading things into the OP that are not there.

[TonySoprano]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I never said .400 or .500.     Whether the worst is over depends on who Elias trades before the deadline.  My OP simply questions whether Elias as added players that may help the offense.  I actually say the pitching is bad.  I ask the question whether the better offense  will add enough wins  to will keep the team from getting the top draft choice.

You and several others are reading things into the OP that are not there.

The bottom line is you started this thread on only two games of data.  Two.  Out of 82 games.

Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

The bottom line is you started this thread on only two games of data.  Two.  Out of 82 games.

Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun
Mother Superior jumped the gun

 

So you are saying based on yesterdays game that the O's offense will not be better with the addition of Santander and Sisco?    Isn't that jumping the gun on your part?

[TonySoprano]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Whether I jumped the gun on the offense being better is yet to be seen.   That will play out over the next few weeks.  

The Orioles started the year 4-1.  Would anyone reasonably extrapolate the data from that very small sample size to an entire season?  Nor should they.

I would have waited a lot more than two games to start looking for possible trends.   But hey, that's silly old me I guess.   

[LookinUp]

On 6/30/2019 at 12:03 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Only Captain Sample Size could dream up a situation where this team turns on a dime and starts winning games, where guys like Tom Eshelman and Chandler Shepard (two guys half this board had never heard of 4 months ago) ride in to the rescue to save the season un#%&@ing this team enough to not get the 1:1 the following year.  

Ummm, I think half of the board still hasn't heard of them. Heck, I'm just hearing about Shepard now. 

11 hours ago, atomic said:

Tigers are making things interesting. Our Pythagorean is actually 3 games better than theirs.

I've pointed this out too, but we do play in the AL East. That will be the differentiation, IMO. The Tigers are horrific though, to be sure.

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

The Orioles started the year 4-1.  Would anyone reasonably extrapolate the data from that very small sample size to an entire season?  Nor should they.

I would have waited a lot more than two games to start looking for possible trends.   But hey, that's silly old me I guess.   

I am talking about the changes to the lineup that has been made recently.   The whole season does not reflect those changes.  

I am not looking at trends.  I am looking at the players that Hyde can put in the lineup now.

[Ohfan67]

I think there’s a 90+% chance that Cashner is traded. Even if the offense picks up, the pitching is unlikely to get better and if Cashner is traded it will almost certainly  get worse. 

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I think there’s a 90+% chance that Cashner is traded. Even if the offense picks up, the pitching is unlikely to get better and if Cashner is traded it will almost certainly  get worse. 

+1, Villar too, and the team will be even worse off after they are gone. If Mancini is traded, you can pretty much guarantee the 1-1.

[Slappy]

Is the 1-1 really that important next year? (I'm genuinely asking).  Is there a standout player?  A lot of years there isn't and having the #2-5 pick is just as impactful.

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, Slappy said:

Is the 1-1 really that important next year? (I'm genuinely asking).  Is there a standout player?  A lot of years there isn't and having the #2-5 pick is just as impactful.

The truth is we don't know.

At this time last year the 'consensus' (if there was one) was that Bobby Witt Jr would be far and away the best player.   Then AR happened.   We don't know if someone will really step up and go to the next level in 2020...........so we might as well lock up 1:1 in case.  

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

The truth is we don't know.

At this time last year the 'consensus' (if there was one) was that Bobby Witt Jr would be far and away the best player.   Then AR happened.   We don't know if someone will really step up and go to the next level in 2020...........so we might as well lock up 1:1 in case.  

Plus you get 2:1 and 3:1 etc.