Orioles trade Cashner to Red Sox

[wildbillhiccup]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

Cashner's might be a little better due to his consistency (he's pitched more innings), but otherwise I don't see how you can possibly say these two pitchers are really that much different (when healthy). 

Cashner

2019 - 4.90 x FIP / 8.7% SwStrk

2018 - 5.19 xFIP / 6.8% SwStrk

2017 - 5.30 xFIP / 6.1% SwStrk

 

Bailey

2019 - 4.62 xFIP / 10.6% SwStrk

2018 - 4.65 xFIP / 8.9% SwStrk

2017 - 4.98 xFIP / 9.3% SwStk

[wildbillhiccup]

35 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I would be talking out of the wrong end if I commented on the future status of the two players coming back in this deal, so I'm ok with that part of the deal. The only thing I guess I'm disappointed in is the amount of money Baltimore still has to pay. 

This is exactly how I feel about the trade...but if kicking in money allowed us to get two (as opposed to one) prospect back I'm completely fine with it. It's pretty clear Elias puts quite a bit of value in the international market and he appears to be trying to fix the fact that we've largely ignored the international pipeline for years. 

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This is exactly how I feel about the trade...but if kicking in money allowed us to get two (as opposed to one) prospect back I'm completely fine with it. It's pretty clear Elias puts quite a bit of value in the international market and he appears to be trying to fix the fact that we've largely ignored the international pipeline for years. 

I'm in agreement with this. Cashner's having a good year and at least one publication (Fangraphs maybe?) made the case that he would be a better bullpen arm if used that way. In other words, I think we could have done a pure salary dump if we wanted, but instead we kicked in some $$. Why?

My best guess is because we think were getting some real talent back. At 17, real talent can blow up in a good way or a bad way, so it's clearly a move with risk, but our evaluators have had eyes on these kids, so I think it's fair to say that we probably got a couple of guys that we actually liked coming back.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

You always have an agenda.    I said Cashner was better than Bailey.    I see the return on Bailey as a floor on what we might have gotten for Cashner, that’s all.    I’m not trying to give credence to anything.     I already said I don’t know if it was a good move or not.

As other trades involving starting pitchers occur between now and 7/31, I think it will be more possible to frame the kind of return we might have gotten for Cashner.    Right now, the Bailey deal is the floor.    

[Lucky_13]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

We know enough about baseball to understand Elias's strategy and the fact that no one fires a GM 8 months into the job...

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

Among those who post here, there's a wide range of knowledge and sophistication about the Orioles past and present, players in the farm system, other ML and MiL players, the business of the Orioles and MLB, and baseball generally. I enjoy reading, and on occasion participating in, spirited debates on this board about the Orioles' players, managers, front office and owners, and about how they perform and the decisions they make.

I think it's great that everyone is welcome to take part in those debates, and to do so pretty much however they want, even though that sometimes causes me do some high-speed scrolling through a topic. And sometimes the arguments make it clear to me that the poster has, or doesn't have, considerable knowledge and sophistication about the topic.  

In my opinion, and I'm confident that I'm not alone, comments like the one I've bolded have no place on this board. And they are unlikely to convince anyone of the merit of the poster's argument, but instead are likely to create or confirm negative opinions of the poster and the quality of his arguments.

.

 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Cashner's might be a little better due to his consistency (he's pitched more innings), but otherwise I don't see how you can possibly say these two pitchers are really that much different (when healthy). 

Cashner

2019 - 4.90 x FIP / 8.7% SwStrk

2018 - 5.19 xFIP / 6.8% SwStrk

2017 - 5.30 xFIP / 6.1% SwStrk

 

Bailey

2019 - 4.62 xFIP / 10.6% SwStrk

2018 - 4.65 xFIP / 8.9% SwStrk

2017 - 4.98 xFIP / 9.3% SwStk

Yeah FIP is meaningless and this proves it.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Yeah FIP is meaningless and this proves it.

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

[jsbearr]

It will be fun to revisit this thread when Cashner signs a free agent deal this offseason.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

He know what it is, it just doesn't fit his argument. I'm actually beginning to wonder of @atomic  is secretly Brady Anderson defending the honor of the man he lobbied to sign

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

It will be fun to revisit this thread when Cashner signs a free agent minor league deal this offseason.

Fixed that for ya

[jsbearr]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Fixed that for ya

He looks more like a 1/10 w/option or a 2/18 player.  A weak pitching team may be desperate enough to offer that.

A team like Boston is looking at him as a short term fifth starter and then pushing him back in the bullpen.  That is the kind of player whose option will not get picked up and indicates a pitcher that is not well viewed in baseball (which has been the case for several years now once his high velocity profile went away).  Some team in dire need of SP (like the Orioles were when they signed him) will be willing to hand out a deal in the 8-10 million range, but only on a short term deal.

Most teams will not see him as a viable starter better than their 5th or 6th options.

Sometimes the numbers are helpful, sometimes they make you think Gerardo Parra will be a good pickup. That is why it is good to look at the context of the numbers.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, atomic said:

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

To be clear you're quoting baseball-reference's rWAR, which gives most of the credit for BABIP and fielding outcomes and HR/FB to the pitcher.  You'd get different results if you used a different metric with different assumptions.  

For example, using Fangraphs' version of WAR Bailey has been +2 wins over the past 2.5 years and 287 innings.  Cashner is at 4.8 over his past 416 innings.  So per 162 innings Bailey is at +1.1, Cashner is at +1.9.  The difference is not nearly as pronounced if you slightly change how you give credit for things that aren't completely in control of the pitcher.

The real difference is probably somewhere in the middle, with Bailey maybe half a win a season, and Cashner around two.  Cashner is a better pitcher, but not by the exaggerated amount you're arguing.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

Not recently, according to this study:  https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-and-siera/

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not recently, according to this study:  https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-and-siera/

That article says that, for 2017 and 2018, SIERA is most predictive, followed by xFIP, then FIP and regular ERA are just about tied.