O’s are paying $50.5 million for 2019

[weams]

15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah but it took an awesome season this year to even come close to the 4th year after his mediocre years 1 & 2

He only pitched 2018 an 2019 for the Orioles. There were performance bonused that appeared to be achievable after his fine 2019 with Baltimore. 

[Roll Tide]

21 minutes ago, weams said:

He only pitched 2018 an 2019 for the Orioles. There were performance bonused that appeared to be achievable after his fine 2019 with Baltimore. 

I am familiar with the option that he had. He had to pitch like 7.1 innings per start to vest the option

[ThomasTomasz]

I would imagine that the team is on the hook for quite a bit.  If the Redskins can only get a $10 million insurance break on the cap for Alex Smith's $70 million in guaranteed money, I don't think the Orioles could get the same for both Cobb and Trumbo.  They are likely stuck paying for all of it, with a little bit of insurance money coming in the next couple of seasons.  

The big problem with Davis is carrying deferred payments (thankfully without interest) well into the 2030's.  

***The insurance break has nothing to do with the severity of Smith's injury.  There were certain levels of insurance policies that the Redskins could take out, but the premium increases the higher they go.  I was just using his $70 million as a baseline.  

[ThomasTomasz]

20 hours ago, CheeryO said:

If I give a big contract to a player few other teams are willing to sign to a big contract, is it terrible luck or just a terrible contract?  The worst that initially come to mind: obviously Chris Davis and I guess then Ubaldo Jimenez.  That said, the O's have been on the positive end of some bigger contracts too -- the first two coming to mind are Miguel Tejada and arguably, funny enough, Andrew Cashner. 

Tejada was lucky for the O's in that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox needed a shortstop when his free agency came up.  His signing was pretty much a no-brainer -- at least it seemed like it at the time.  Too bad the O's never went after any of the big name free agent pitchers -- not that there are that many worth the risk.  Scherzer would have been that guy imo.

I would've understood letting Cruz ($8 m) and Markakis ($15 m) walk, but instead signing Scherzer ($30 m AAV with a lot deferred) or Jon Lester ($25.83 AAV.)  That team in 2014 desperately needed an ace starter, and that would've been a huge boon to the 2015 and 2016 squads as well.  

Once we failed to grow the arms, we should've bought one.  We had plenty of resources coming off the books to improve the major league roster, but added Travis Snyder and that was it.  We should've been in on both Scherzer and Lester, however, we all know how risk adverse Angelos is, and the last round of big spending contracts didn't work out in 2005, so that was that.  

[CheeryO]

2 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

I would've understood letting Cruz ($8 m) and Markakis ($15 m) walk, but instead signing Scherzer ($30 m AAV with a lot deferred) or Jon Lester ($25.83 AAV.)  That team in 2014 desperately needed an ace starter, and that would've been a huge boon to the 2015 and 2016 squads as well.  

Once we failed to grow the arms, we should've bought one.  We had plenty of resources coming off the books to improve the major league roster, but added Travis Snyder and that was it.  We should've been in on both Scherzer and Lester, however, we all know how risk adverse Angelos is, and the last round of big spending contracts didn't work out in 2005, so that was that.  

In retrospect I agree the O's had really no chance at competing during the Showalter/Duquette years unless they had signed someone like Scherzer or Lester.  It didn't seem obvious at the time, but if you can't draft and develop or trade for a Verlander, Kershaw, deGrom or Sale or some other clear "ace", then you have to go get one on the free agent market to have a real shot at a title.  The first free agent examples that comes to mind are Sabathia putting the Yankees over the hump in 2009 and also David Price finally putting it together last season for the Red Sox.

Ever since the O's traded Erik Bedard the O's have been in desperate need of an ace starter -- and one could make an argument he wasn't an "ace".  He was great for a few years but ultimately could not stay healthy and declined fast (after being traded).  Chen and Tillman had some excellent seasons but certainly were not aces.  I'm sure a lot of people would say the O's have not had a true ace since Mike Mussina.

[ThomasTomasz]

8 hours ago, CheeryO said:

In retrospect I agree the O's had really no chance at competing during the Showalter/Duquette years unless they had signed someone like Scherzer or Lester.  It didn't seem obvious at the time, but if you can't draft and develop or trade for a Verlander, Kershaw, deGrom or Sale or some other clear "ace", then you have to go get one on the free agent market to have a real shot at a title.  The first free agent examples that comes to mind are Sabathia putting the Yankees over the hump in 2009 and also David Price finally putting it together last season for the Red Sox.

Ever since the O's traded Erik Bedard the O's have been in desperate need of an ace starter -- and one could make an argument he wasn't an "ace".  He was great for a few years but ultimately could not stay healthy and declined fast (after being traded).  Chen and Tillman had some excellent seasons but certainly were not aces.  I'm sure a lot of people would say the O's have not had a true ace since Mike Mussina.

As far as the second paragraph goes, I'm on that boat and have pointed that out quite a bit since last year.  The changes that the new GM needed to make were not just going after players on the international market, but to get rid of the rot in the Warehouse and in the player development system.  It says something when the Orioles haven't had a legitimate TORP they've developed since Mussina and then Bedard.  I don't even consider Tillman or Chen to be those guys, since Chen had extensive experience and coaching before changing leagues, and Tillman was a top 100 guy coming to Baltimore.   There were issues up and down the minor league development system.  John Wasdin helped the past two years in drafting, but look at the improvements guys like Baumann and Sedlock are making in Year One of an analytics system, and how much better some of our other pitchers are doing in the low minors.  It seems that we may finally be on the right track.