I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Can_of_corn]

What could go wrong with extending a middle infielder into his 30's?  It worked great the last two times.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

The Elias Plan, as I understand it, says that the answer is no. Unless a player looks like a guy who will be part of the next contending team -- whenever that is now targeted to be -- the goal is to cut payroll. Since it doesn't look like Villard will be around that long and there are doubts as to whether he'd be a desirable guy to have on a team built to contend, there's no reason to add payroll in order to get his help in winning a few games over the next year or two. Maybe he'd be worth it at $1.5 million or so, but signing him that cheap seems awfully unlikely. That's what the Plan (again, as I understand it) calls for.

Cutting payroll is one piece of the Plan. The other is (or could be) trading assets for future value. It is true, we haven't seen that piece yet from Elias. There was apparently no market for Villar at the deadline, and Givens/Bleier etc did us no favors.

Will also be interesting to see what happens with Mancini and Bundy as well. By WAR, at least, Villar has more value so I am still holding out hope that we will get something back for him. Maybe they trade him in the offseason rather than nontendering but I have to think they can get something for a 2-3 WAR middle infielder.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What could go wrong with extending a middle infielder into his 30's?  It worked great the last two times.

So you are comparing a athletic MI to a couple big slow 1B/DH types? 

Plus a 3 year deal would only be 31 

And it’s 5ish million per ... not 12.5 or 23 million

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Cutting payroll is one piece of the Plan. The other is (or could be) trading assets for future value. It is true, we haven't seen that piece yet from Elias. There was apparently no market for Villar at the deadline, and Givens/Bleier etc did us no favors.

Will also be interesting to see what happens with Mancini and Bundy as well. By WAR, at least, Villar has more value so I am still holding out hope that we will get something back for him. Maybe they trade him in the offseason rather than nontendering but I have to think they can get something for a 2-3 WAR middle infielder.

It doesn’t happen every day but I hear enough radio guys complaining about dumb plays from Villar often enough that is seems a regular problem. Not just bad throws. Errors are bad but just demonstrate bad defense. The guys talk about throws or running without thinking 

[Yardball85]

It would be monumentally stupid to let him go for nothing.

[weams]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So you are comparing a athletic MI to a couple big slow 1B/DH types? 

Plus a 3 year deal would only be 31 

And it’s 5ish million per ... not 12.5 or 23 million

He is talking Hardy and Roberts.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

He is talking Hardy and Roberts.

I would have thought the term middle infielder would have made that clear.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

He is talking Hardy and Roberts.

Hardy seemed to be around forever. But had health issues before he got here. 

Roberts gave himself a concussion on purpose by hitting himself in the head with a bat.

I don’t believe either guy was 31 in the final year of a contract 

[Frobby]

Nice interview of Don Long about Villar’s improved approach at the plate.    Makes me think Long may be just the guy to coach Mountcastle once he’s here.  

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/long-on-villar-hes-really-under-control.html

[Roll Tide]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nice interview of Don Long about Villar’s improved approach at the plate.    Makes me think Long may be just the guy to coach Mountcastle once he’s here.  

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/long-on-villar-hes-really-under-control.html

I think there is a big difference in his approach according to many outlets including him. 

 

[GuidoSarducci]

On 8/20/2019 at 2:35 PM, Roll Tide said:

So you are comparing a athletic MI to a couple big slow 1B/DH types? 

Plus a 3 year deal would only be 31 

 And it’s 5ish million per ... not 12.5 or 23 million

Villar will be ~3.5 WAR player this year and has averaged ~2.5 over the last four years.   Granted he had a rather dismal 2017.  But going by WAR, a 2.5 WAR player is worth roughly $20 million/yr on the open market, because teams have been paying roughly $8m/WAR/year.   Of course the relationship isn't perfectly linear and there's the issue of supply and demand at the given position.  

[GuidoSarducci]

37 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Villar will be ~3.5 WAR player this year and has averaged ~2.5 over the last four years.   Granted he had a rather dismal 2017.  But going by WAR, a 2.5 WAR player is worth roughly $20 million/yr on the open market, because teams have been paying roughly $8m/WAR/year.   Of course the relationship isn't perfectly linear and there's the issue of supply and demand at the given position.  

Can't edit my post anymore, but I was wrong about the cost per WAR teams were willing to pay.  Its actually more like $5.7 million for position players.  https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

So if Villar is valued at 2.5 WAR, his FA price would be 5.7 * 2.5 roughly $14 million.

[sportsfan8703]

Elias got on the job late last offseason. I think we see a much more active Elias this offseason. Villar could be an attractive option because it would only be a one year commitment. Less risk than FA.

A team like the Reds would be a good fit. I’ll even toss a name out...  Rece Hinds 3B

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=cin

Edited August 30, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[LA2]

On 8/21/2019 at 10:20 AM, Roll Tide said:

Hardy seemed to be around forever. But had health issues before he got here. 

Roberts gave himself a concussion on purpose by hitting himself in the head with a bat.

I don’t believe either guy was 31 in the final year of a contract 

CoC's comparison of Villar to the signings of Hardy and Roberts is far-fetched (especially if one factors in age, as you have pointed out), but I don't quite understand your reasoning here.

1. Yes, Hardy had had some injuries before coming to Baltimore, but he recovered and put in several stellar seasons. Resigning him once new injuries and age clearly made it difficult for him to play well was a foolish decision, as CoC implied. Don't quite understand why you think a history of pre-Oriole injuries can serve as an alibi.

2. Where did you got the fascinating idea that B-Rob intentionally gave himself a concussion?

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Can't edit my post anymore, but I was wrong about the cost per WAR teams were willing to pay.  Its actually more like $5.7 million for position players.  https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

So if Villar is valued at 2.5 WAR, his FA price would be 5.7 * 2.5 roughly $14 million.

I haven’t studied the matter, but I’m not sure I believe the calculation in that article.   I’d think that if Fangraphs itself believed it, they’d change the valuations they publish for position players.    But they haven’t done so.

PS - Note that the article was using data from 2006 to 2017.   Per Fangraphs, the value of 1 WAR in 2006 was $4.8 mm.   So $5.7 mm for position players over that entire 12 year period is more plausible.    That doesn’t tell you what the market rate is today.