Inventory Year - Phase Two

[ScGO's]

Its Sept 1, 1 month to go in the Inventory Year Evaluations.  Again this is an evaluation of our current 40 man roster as we try to figure out who is coming back next year. (We will see if Elias adds a few more to the 40 man today as it is time for Sept Call Ups)

Previously, I had determined that Givens, Fry, Bundy, Mancini, Armstrong, Alberto, Severino, Nunez, and Means were all but assured 40 man spots going into next season.  Based on the last few weeks, I am going to say that Santander, Castro, and Hunter Harvey to the have earned their spots for next season based on their performance. That's 12 of the 40 spots. Its been a short sample for Harvey, but 100 mph gas and his poise suggest he is 100% ready for big league job next season.  Here are the rest.

 

Gabriel Ynoa – Trending up - Some might disagree with me, but there is a lot of hidden data on Ynoa that suggest that if he stays in long relief/opener role, he can find success.  His first time through the line up numbers are much much better than when gets through the line up a 2nd or 3rd time.  His numbers in relief aren't any worse than some of our other relievers, its just that he's been rocked in his starts.

Asher Wojciechowski – Trending up - A few struggles, but the K's are still there.  He needs to have a few good Sept starts to improve his chances at a guaranteed spot for next season.

Richard Bleier – Trending down - Been getting rocked.  He's also getting older.  They may keep him in hopes that he can get back to his old self and become a trade chip, but the new regime seems to be all about the K's, and Bleier doesn't fit that mold.

Stevie Wilkerson – Trending up - Has been a bit cold at the plate, but his versatility has been very valuable.  I think he should get a roster spot next season, but he shouldn't be a starter.

Chance Sisco – Trending down - The struggle is real.  Not sure what Elias is thinking as far as how much Sisco could be interfering with our pitcher's success.  I think he gets a spot next year, but he needs to build on his current mini hot streak at the plate and show some competence behind the plate. Probably needs to learn a couple new positions this offseason.

Richie Martin – Trending down - After a little hot streak, he has cooled off again. Defensive metrics suggest he needs work.  With the way Villar has played this season, Richie may see AAA next year while Villar (to increase trade value (if not traded by then already)) and maybe a FA sign get innings at SS next year.

Rio Ruiz – Trending down - Alberto seems to be pushing for next year's 3B innings.  Ruiz needs a good September or Elias might be ready to move on.

David Hess – Trending down - Will probably get called up this month.  Needs to do well in a BP role to keep his spot for next season.

Tom Eshelman – Trending down - Getting knocked around at AAA.  Have never been impressed.

Aaron Brooks –Trending up - Surprised me with 2 solid starts in a row.  If he keeps this up in Sept, he could get a rotation spot to start next season

Jonathan Villar – Trending up - Even if he's not traded this winter, he might be tendered a contract in hope that we can trade him during the season.  Is it still a possibility that he is non-tendered bc of $?  I don't envy Elias as he tries to make a decision on Villar.

Jace Peterson – Trending down - He's still here.  Still wondering why.

Chris Davis – Trending down - I think the writing is on the wall.  I think he gets cut in the offseason.  More valuable off the team as we will have 26 roster spots to fill next season in another rebuilding year.

Dwight Smith Jr – Trending down - Crowded OF.  Terrible Defense (in my opinion)

Chandler Shepherd – Trending up - Killing it in AAA recently.  Give him a few Sept starts on the big club.

Branden Kline – Trending down -K's are still there, but just getting knocked around too hard at both AAA and MLB.

Evan Phillips – Trending down - Not a lot of chatter about him.  Hopefully we see him in September.  Has been ok at AAA.

Dillon Tate – Trending up - Could earn himself a BP spot with a good Sept.

Tayler Scott – Trending down - No control on his pitches.  Always seems to struggle.

Tanner Scott – Trending up - Lots of K's and results in AAA.  I still think he'd make a great opener.

Austin Hays – Trending up - Is healthy, but might not be given his shot until Spring Training.

DJ Stewart – Trending up - Not a lot of power yet, but his approach has been solid, and he's getting on base.

Luis Ortiz – Trending down - Guessing he is still hurt?

Cody Carroll – Trending up - He's on rehab and doing alright.  Could he get a few Sept innings?  At least could be an option come Spring Training

Austin Wynns – Trending down - Old AAA catcher, OPS under .700

Cedric Mullins –Trending down - Still in AA. Does he even get a call up in Sept?

Ryan Eades - Trending up - Small sample size, but so far so good.  Decent K numbers.

Ty Blach - Trending down - Been lit up since he got here.

[Aristotelian]

Good analysis. Only thing I would say about Bleier is that he had been trending positively. ERA had dropped from 7.40 down to 5.67. Maybe if they hadn't shifted he gets out of that inning unscathed? Up until that point he hadn't given up more than 1 run since July 3. Hard to read anything into one bad appearance. Regardless, a lot of people think he will be nontendered if they can't agree to terms.

I don't see anything special about Ynoa.

With the bases loaded last night, the Royals all tagged up and advanced on the sac fly, even the guy on first. The ball was not even on the warning track. Not a good sign for Stevie's future as an OF. It was a good experiment but I don't think he is the answer in CF.

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, I tend to get anxious anytime I see Bleier enter a game. I don’t care if he was trending up, his stuff is below average. His command is definitely worse this year, but I never expected his results were sustainable long term. He’s outperformed his peripherals from the beginning.

[Sessh]

Wojciechowski isn't trending up at all.

July: 3.60/0.93, 37K/9BB in 30 IP, .183 BAA, 5HR

August: 6.75/1.64, 24K/15BB in 28 IP, .272 BAA, 10HR

Wojciechowski is trending down and not exactly sure how he could be trending up. Also seems to be losing velocity.

 

[ScGO's]

44 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Wojciechowski isn't trending up at all.

July: 3.60/0.93, 37K/9BB in 30 IP, .183 BAA, 5HR

August: 6.75/1.64, 24K/15BB in 28 IP, .272 BAA, 10HR

Wojciechowski is trending down and not exactly sure how he could be trending up. Also seems to be losing velocity.

 

I had him trending up more for circumstances than statistical performance this past month.  If he has a few quality starts this month, I believe he will be in line for a rotation spot next season. He is going almost 6 IP on avg each start, his K rate is solid thanks to a high spin rate on the 4 seamer, but his giving up some hard freaking contact too.  His change up is dog doo, so he needs to fix it or find another out pitch to help offset the hard contact.

I also believe his BBs will go down as he figures out an effective approach at the MLB level.  I think he is still learning to pitch within a new system.  I also believe he has the potential to tank and be DFA'd at some point too.

[Sessh]

55 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I had him trending up more for circumstances than statistical performance this past month.  If he has a few quality starts this month, I believe he will be in line for a rotation spot next season. He is going almost 6 IP on avg each start, his K rate is solid thanks to a high spin rate on the 4 seamer, but his giving up some hard freaking contact too.  His change up is dog doo, so he needs to fix it or find another out pitch to help offset the hard contact.

I also believe his BBs will go down as he figures out an effective approach at the MLB level.  I think he is still learning to pitch within a new system.  I also believe he has the potential to tank and be DFA'd at some point too.

Wojciechowski averages about 5.06 innings per start this season. He has gone six or more innings only three times out of 11 starts. He has failed to get through five innings in five of those 11 starts and failed to get through six in eight of 11 starts. He barely averages five innings per start and has only gone six once in August. I know those two seven inning starts he made got everyone excited, but he has been below average since then and before then. So, I disagree on that assessment. He is pitching more like he had been before coming here. He's had only three quality starts out of 11 most of which were not good.

I do want to see if his velocity bounces back because what once was 93-94 during his no-hit bid has gradually slipped down to where it is now at 90-91.

[ScGO's]

19 hours ago, Sessh said:

Wojciechowski averages about 5.06 innings per start this season. He has gone six or more innings only three times out of 11 starts. He has failed to get through five innings in five of those 11 starts and failed to get through six in eight of 11 starts. He barely averages five innings per start and has only gone six once in August. I know those two seven inning starts he made got everyone excited, but he has been below average since then and before then. So, I disagree on that assessment. He is pitching more like he had been before coming here. He's had only three quality starts out of 11 most of which were not good.

I do want to see if his velocity bounces back because what once was 93-94 during his no-hit bid has gradually slipped down to where it is now at 90-91.

Today will be a telling start for him.  He has done really well in day games this year, so a good start here will hopefully create some positive momentum for him.

He hasn't been great as of late, but I don't see a lot of rotation options beyond Bundy, Means, and a healthy Alex Cobb for next season.  From what I am seeing, Brooks and Wojo are in a competition for those final two rotation spots next season.  They will probably bring in a FA starter (low risk signings) or two in Spring Training.  If they call up Akin in Sept and he has a few solid performances, his name could be considered, but I see him starting in AAA next season.

[Sessh]

I forgot it was a day game today, so missed the whole thing. Looking through GameDay, it seems Wojo was generally in the 89-91 range with a handful of 92's and a few 88's as well. I still don't like it, but glad he got through seven. It seems like the Rays were not being all that patient, am I wrong?

[sportsfan8703]

The bullpen has been pitching better. Givens has been his old self since May. The rest of the ERAs are trying to creep below 5. 

Rotation wise Bundy has came on lately. Means isn’t a fluke. Wojo won’t kill you as a rotation member. There’s some hope next year that Means, Bundy, Cobb, Wojo, Akin won’t be as bad as the SP this year.  

Lineup wise we’re looking alright. Sisco/Severino cooled off, but that was to be expected. We just have home at 3B and CF for next year. It’s looking like Ruiz and Wilkerson against RHP at the moment. 

[Roll Tide]

On 9/1/2019 at 10:00 AM, ScGO's said:

Its Sept 1, 1 month to go in the Inventory Year Evaluations.  Again this is an evaluation of our current 40 man roster as we try to figure out who is coming back next year. (We will see if Elias adds a few more to the 40 man today as it is time for Sept Call Ups)

Previously, I had determined that Givens, Fry, Bundy, Mancini, Armstrong, Alberto, Severino, Nunez, and Means were all but assured 40 man spots going into next season.  Based on the last few weeks, I am going to say that Santander, Castro, and Hunter Harvey to the have earned their spots for next season based on their performance. That's 12 of the 40 spots. Its been a short sample for Harvey, but 100 mph gas and his poise suggest he is 100% ready for big league job next season.  Here are the rest.

 

Gabriel Ynoa – Trending up - Some might disagree with me, but there is a lot of hidden data on Ynoa that suggest that if he stays in long relief/opener role, he can find success.  His first time through the line up numbers are much much better than when gets through the line up a 2nd or 3rd time.  His numbers in relief aren't any worse than some of our other relievers, its just that he's been rocked in his starts.

Asher Wojciechowski – Trending up - A few struggles, but the K's are still there.  He needs to have a few good Sept starts to improve his chances at a guaranteed spot for next season.

Richard Bleier – Trending down - Been getting rocked.  He's also getting older.  They may keep him in hopes that he can get back to his old self and become a trade chip, but the new regime seems to be all about the K's, and Bleier doesn't fit that mold.

Stevie Wilkerson – Trending up - Has been a bit cold at the plate, but his versatility has been very valuable.  I think he should get a roster spot next season, but he shouldn't be a starter.

Chance Sisco – Trending down - The struggle is real.  Not sure what Elias is thinking as far as how much Sisco could be interfering with our pitcher's success.  I think he gets a spot next year, but he needs to build on his current mini hot streak at the plate and show some competence behind the plate. Probably needs to learn a couple new positions this offseason.

Richie Martin – Trending down - After a little hot streak, he has cooled off again. Defensive metrics suggest he needs work.  With the way Villar has played this season, Richie may see AAA next year while Villar (to increase trade value (if not traded by then already)) and maybe a FA sign get innings at SS next year.

Rio Ruiz – Trending down - Alberto seems to be pushing for next year's 3B innings.  Ruiz needs a good September or Elias might be ready to move on.

David Hess – Trending down - Will probably get called up this month.  Needs to do well in a BP role to keep his spot for next season.

Tom Eshelman – Trending down - Getting knocked around at AAA.  Have never been impressed.

Aaron Brooks –Trending up - Surprised me with 2 solid starts in a row.  If he keeps this up in Sept, he could get a rotation spot to start next season

Jonathan Villar – Trending up - Even if he's not traded this winter, he might be tendered a contract in hope that we can trade him during the season.  Is it still a possibility that he is non-tendered bc of $?  I don't envy Elias as he tries to make a decision on Villar.

Jace Peterson – Trending down - He's still here.  Still wondering why.

Chris Davis – Trending down - I think the writing is on the wall.  I think he gets cut in the offseason.  More valuable off the team as we will have 26 roster spots to fill next season in another rebuilding year.

Dwight Smith Jr – Trending down - Crowded OF.  Terrible Defense (in my opinion)

Chandler Shepherd – Trending up - Killing it in AAA recently.  Give him a few Sept starts on the big club.

Branden Kline – Trending down -K's are still there, but just getting knocked around too hard at both AAA and MLB.

Evan Phillips – Trending down - Not a lot of chatter about him.  Hopefully we see him in September.  Has been ok at AAA.

Dillon Tate – Trending up - Could earn himself a BP spot with a good Sept.

Tayler Scott – Trending down - No control on his pitches.  Always seems to struggle.

Tanner Scott – Trending up - Lots of K's and results in AAA.  I still think he'd make a great opener.

Austin Hays – Trending up - Is healthy, but might not be given his shot until Spring Training.

DJ Stewart – Trending up - Not a lot of power yet, but his approach has been solid, and he's getting on base.

Luis Ortiz – Trending down - Guessing he is still hurt?

Cody Carroll – Trending up - He's on rehab and doing alright.  Could he get a few Sept innings?  At least could be an option come Spring Training

Austin Wynns – Trending down - Old AAA catcher, OPS under .700

Cedric Mullins –Trending down - Still in AA. Does he even get a call up in Sept?

Ryan Eades - Trending up - Small sample size, but so far so good.  Decent K numbers.

Ty Blach - Trending down - Been lit up since he got here.

Again, there is 0 chance Villar is nontendered. The guy has an .810 OPS. Even the mention of such is foolery!

[weams]

Addition by subtraction.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Really what have we found out pitching wise this year?  

- Means is a solid/consistent mid rotation LH. 

- Bundy is a back end rotation arm. 

- Givens is a “good” set up RH but needs to face RH in the 6th-8th Innings. 

- Wojo could be a #5 or BP arm. 

- Harvey showed flashes. 

Did we learn anything else?  This is the most troubling thing to me. We threw 50 pitchers against the wall in MLB and AAA, and only the above had a “successful” year. 

This was a train wreck year P wise. We can’t even get these guys pitching ok out of the pen. The Bowie gang will just be touching AAA next year. We’re stuck with the same guys again next year.

The answer is they are probably just not talented, but the answer is we’re going to have to fire Brocail if we want to try for different results. Elias shouldn’t sit back and have a repeat of this year with the same players getting the same coaching. 

[7Mo]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The answer is they are probably just not talented, but the answer is we’re going to have to fire Brocail if we want to try for different results. Elias shouldn’t sit back and have a repeat of this year with the same players getting the same coaching. 

Given what Brocail has had to work with, I don't know how any of us could accurately say he did a great job or a lousy job or anything in between.

And there is zero reason to think Elias is going to sit back and have a repeat with the same players. He'll bring in several new guys. The offseason should be really interesting. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Really what have we found out pitching wise this year?  

- Means is a solid/consistent mid rotation LH. 

- Bundy is a back end rotation arm. 

- Givens is a “good” set up RH but needs to face RH in the 6th-8th Innings. 

- Wojo could be a #5 or BP arm. 

- Harvey showed flashes. 

Did we learn anything else?  This is the most troubling thing to me. We threw 50 pitchers against the wall in MLB and AAA, and only the above had a “successful” year. 

This was a train wreck year P wise. We can’t even get these guys pitching ok out of the pen. The Bowie gang will just be touching AAA next year. We’re stuck with the same guys again next year.

The answer is they are probably just not talented, but the answer is we’re going to have to fire Brocail if we want to try for different results. Elias shouldn’t sit back and have a repeat of this year with the same players getting the same coaching. 

We learned that Hess, Brooks, Straily, Ynoa, Eshelman, and Yacabonis are garbage. Does that count?

I don't know what you expected in a rebuild year when none of our top pitching prospects are developmentally ready and bringing them up would be a waste of service time. In terms of future core, I don't know what else we could have learned when you are playing with other teams' castoffs.

I wonder how much difference a better catcher could make for these guys. Sisco and Severino were both terrible in just about all phases.

Fortunately, we had a lot of positive news in the minors this year. It's just going to take time to see if they develop.

[ScGO's]

Safe to assume they will be on opening day roster or at least a trade asset this offseason) - John Means, Mychal Givens, Paul Fry, Shawn Armstrong, Dylan Bundy, Miguel Castro, Jonathan Villar, Pedro Severino, Trey Mancini Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander, Hanser Alberto

Earned a 40 man spot, if not an opening day spot

Austin Hays - Next year's starting CF? Small sample size, but its starting to look like it

DJ Stewart - If Mancini is traded or moved to 1B permanently, he could be a starting corner outfielder next season. 

Hunter Harvey - Future closer? Can he stay healthy?

Dillon Tate - Lots of movement on his pitches; still getting used to new role in the BP

Tanner Scott- I think Harvey, Tate, and Scott could develop into a decent back of the BP with more experience

Asher Wojciechowski - Has shown flashes and K's.  I think he's our #5 to start the season

Chance Sisco - OBP skills are nice.  Not sure how they are feeling about him at C, but if he can learn some other positions he might find more value.

Stevie Wilkerson - I think he is our super utility player next year and he could find some value if he is never allowed to face RHP.

Rio Ruiz - .816 OPS in the 2nd half have probably earned him another shot in 2020

Richie Martin - Since he was with the team the whole season without being sent back to the A's, its probably safe to assume he keeps his 40 man spot while working on his game in AAA next season

Could go either way - Half these guys will probably be DFA'd to make way for some new blood

Dwight Smith Jr - I almost listed him as dead weight as I am not a fan of his defense.  However, he can swing it a  little I think he still has an option left so he could start in AAA

Mason Williams - If Santander, Hays, Stewart his your starting OF, he would make a solid 4th OF for next season. Depends on what the plans are for  Mancini and Mountcastle

Gabriel Ynoa- I still think he's our long reliever/emergency starter next year

Evan Phillips - Looks good at times, still needs some more evaluation time in my opinion.

Branden Kline - Struggled, but shows some flashes, and it was his rookie year, albeit at age 27

Tayler Scott - Might be able to pass through waivers. Seems management wants more evaluation time for the South African.

Eric Hanhold - New blood hasn't been thrown to the wolves yet

Richard Bleier - Not a very fun 2019 for him.  Maybe management hopes he can return to 2017-2018 form next year.  Could also be time for the 32 year old to move on.

Chandler Shepherd - Probably needs more evaluation. Finished AAA season well.  Does he get another start this Sept?

Ryan Eades - Another who I think would pass through waivers.  Still not happy about him giving up the granny in Det, but management might see something I don't

Austin Wynns - He's a solid glove to have, especially with Sisco and Severino being anything but perfect behind the plate.  He is getting older and he isn't much of a bat though.

Luis Ortiz - Lost 2019, only 23.  Not sure if he'd pass through waivers with his former prospect status.  Try again in AAA next season?

Cody Carroll - Started a rehab stint at the end of the year.  If healthy for 2020 he could be a big league option at some point

Cedric Mullins - Sounds like he is going to retool and rethink his game this offseason.  Enough athleticism may keep him on the 40 man roster.  He would be claimed on waivers in my opinion.

Dead weight - Time to cut

Chris Davis - He might make it to ST, but I think its time to let go

Mark Trumbo - FA won't be resigned

Aaron Brooks - Could probably pass through waivers.  Would hope there is a more exciting option for next year's rotation

David Hess - straightest fastball in the MLB, probably loses his spot for new blood, but I'd assume he'd make it through waivers at this point