Extending Home Grown vs FA

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I'm not certain .... It will interesting to see if he cant still hit after 35. And how sharp the decline is....If he's a 4.5 war player the next 6 season would it be worth the dip in the last 3 years?

Nice job skirting the question. You have to answer yes to this, it's the only way you can stick to your agenda without looking foolish.

[El Gordo]

I really don't understand why anyone thinks Hamilton is going to get a contract for > $20 mm/yr. Per fangraphs, he has had exactly one season where he was worth more than that, and that was in 2010. With Hamilton's checkered history, I don't see why any team would pay more than $20 mm/yr even on a 4 year deal. But, maybe some team will prove me wrong.

My best guess is that you would get a 5 WAR season, followed by 4, 3.5 , 3 , 2.5, 2, for a total of 20 WAR over 6 years best case. So that's 6/100 M. But you have to over pay to get him, and our core is under control for the next 3 years, so with a 5 WAR , 4 WAR and a 3.5 WAR year. The O's would have a good shot to make the WS while we still have Wieters. Tough choice considering Hamilton's risk factor's, but it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand, IMO.

[MemorialStadKid]

Uh, what?

I was answering his post.

I said "No, I do want Hamilton." Minus the comma. He was attempting to see if I was going to backtrack out of saying I like Hamilton on this team because he called him a "question mark." I was saying I don't have an issue with Hamilton.

MSK

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Two points:

1) I won't be "blasting" anyone because it will be business as usual for PA and the gang.

2) I think my tone here has been horribly misunderstood. I am not angry, bitter or reactionary. I am only stating that the Orioles aren't a dirt-poor team that needs to behave like catfish on the bottom of a fish tank. We have money and resources. We still have an attitude (some folks on the OH that is) that we can't ever spend money on anything ever unless it is to shore up current players. We have needs. Serious needs despite our success in 2012. Standing pat will not get us to the same place. We need some superstar level talent right now.

Why this is so problematic or controversial a view I will never understand.

MSK

And so I ask you again, what is so dirt poor about a $100m payroll? We're probably going to have a similar payroll to the Atlanta Braves, are they acting like catfish too? Or do they get a pass because they've used some of their money on FA's?

[Frobby]

Princes agent comes to you the day before he signs and says "Prince needs 9 years, 235-250 to sign"

Are you saying let me fax the contract over to you? Yay or nay?

His deal was 9/$214 mm, not $235-250 mm.

Speaking for myself, there's no way I'd pay that. Fielder probably earned his $23 mm last year, and maybe he'll earn his salary for the next 2-3 seasons. For the last 4-5 years of it, the Tigers will rue the day they inked this deal.

Of course, the Tigers went to the World Series in 2012, and if they win one some time in the next 2-3 years, maybe they won't care when Fielder declines.

[Dark Helmet]

I love Greike. I don't need to make excuses for why we shouldn't sign him but I do suspect he'll get more money than what I'd be willing to pay him. I assume even you (and MSK) have some line in the sand you're not willing to cross. Right?

I do have a line. I'd give him 5/110 + a 1 year option.

But, PA will never break his stone-aged thinking, that SP shouldn't get more then 15M a year or get deals over 3 years. So before the money is even discussed, the O's have eliminated themselves from the conversation, because they won't do what most teams have realised you have to do.

[McNulty]

I was answering his post.

I said "No, I do want Hamilton." Minus the comma. He was attempting to see if I was going to backtrack out of saying I like Hamilton on this team because he called him a "question mark." I was saying I don't have an issue with Hamilton.

MSK

You said we need a Hamilton (of which there is only one hitter in FA this year who could be considered in his class as a hitter). Then you said you wouldn't sign him.

Which is it man?

[Dark Helmet]

No way anyone will pay that. Mauer is the only catcher who's ever gotten a contract like that, and that deal looks pretty insane two years in. And Mauer was coming off some of the best years any catcher ever had. It seems absurd (save for some massive overall revenue increases in the sport) that Wieters would ask for a Pujols deal and settle on a Mauer.

Ok, lets say 7/115M. I doubt PA will go even that high for Wieters. And "absurd" and "Boras" go hand in hand. I wouldn't be shocked at any number he threw at the O's. He's a firm believer in starting insanely high in contract talks. It wouldn't shock me one bit if his initial asking price was 10/200M.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

You said we need a Hamilton (of which there is only one hitter in FA this year who could be considered in his class as a hitter). Then you said you wouldn't sign him.

Which is it man?

He said he would go for/hope for 5/$100m. Which imop is as good as not even making an offer.

[Dark Helmet]

So when he signs for 4/$100, 5/$120, or even 6/$140 with someone else are you still going to blast PA for not stepping up?

I know this wasn't asked to me, but personally I will be very upset if Hamilton signs for 4-5 years at 100-120M. At 6/140M, I would let him go to whoever else. If the O's could land Hamilton on a 4/100M deal and don't, then PA deserves to get blasted imo.

[TradeAngelos]

And so I ask you again, what is so dirt poor about a $100m payroll? We're probably going to have a similar payroll to the Atlanta Braves, are they acting like catfish too? Or do they get a pass because they've used some of their money on FA's?

Could you project out the next couple of years and tell us where this "$100 million payroll" is coming from in our own players? I don't even see it for 2013, and sure as heck don't see it after that. Oh I forgot, all our retreads are going to be superstars and we are going to sign them all to big contracts I guess. Build from within!! Free agents just destroy teams and never help them to win!

The fact is we have ONE guy signed long term right now in Jones. ONE. We have as much payroll flexibility over the next 4-5 years as any team in MLB, even counting signing guys like Wieters to long term deals. Any other current Orioles who are going to break the bank that I am unaware of? Lay it out for all the stupid people who don't know what we are talking about.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t50_b9iaARDxOK6TPjab3gQ&output=html

See if that helps.

[mark_beckens]

It will depend what it takes. I love the defensive player....Not so much his bat.

That's only cause he was hyped as Mauer with power and hasn't lived up to it. As catchers go, he's still pretty good with the bat.

[DrungoHazewood]

Could you project out the next couple of years and tell us where this "$100 million payroll" is coming from in our own players? I don't even see it for 2013, and sure as heck don't see it after that.

Probably here. Even assuming nobody blows up and gets a crazy extension, AND the O's fill out the rest of the roster with minimally-salaried players they're at or around $100M through 2015.

[Frobby]

But, PA will never break his stone-aged thinking, that SP shouldn't get more then 15M a year or get deals over 3 years. So before the money is even discussed, the O's have eliminated themselves from the conversation, because they won't do what most teams have realised you have to do.

There have been twenty pitchers' contracts that were valued at $15 mm/yr or more. A fair number of those have been disastrous: Santana (6/$137.5 mm), Lincecum (2/$40.5 mm), Zambrano (4/$53.2 mm), Peavy (3/$52 mm), Zito (8/$126 mm), Burnett (5/$82.5 mm), Lackey (5/$82.5 mm), Schmidt (3/$47 mm), Hampton (8/$121 mm), Lowe (4/$60 mm). For most of the others, it's too soon to tell.

And it's not "most teams" that are shelling out these deals:

Yankees: Sabathia, Sabathia, Burnett

Phillies: Halladay, Lee, Hammels

Giants: Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Schmidt

Angels: Weaver, Wilson

Mets: Santana, Hampton

Cubs: Zambrano

Padres: Peavy

Red Sox: Lackey

Tigers: Verlander

Mariners: Hernandez

Braves: Lowe

That's 19 teams out of 30 that have never paid a pitcher $15 mm/yr.

[MemorialStadKid]

You said we need a Hamilton (of which there is only one hitter in FA this year who could be considered in his class as a hitter). Then you said you wouldn't sign him.

Which is it man?

When/where did I say I didn't want him? Show me please.

I can't edit my posts so whatever I wrote stays. Show me please.

Thanks.

MSK