Martin spurns Cal Fullerton as well as O's

[hoosiers]

We'll see what happens with Martin. I do not believe anyone thinks poorly of Martin or believes he is some villain for turning down the Os. I do not believe the Os were looking to get any "bargain" in signing Martin. They most likely offered what they perceived Martin to be worth and that number was far enough away from the requested $700k to cause the signing to not happen.

Martin's request was second round $. It does not appear there was a major league team prepared to take him in the first two rounds on merit to offer the $ requested. I do not believe the scouting services rated Martin close to that top 75 at the time of the draft so either Martin had a request out of line with his perceived skills or that was an inflated price from a HS prospect to skip college.

I hope for Martin's sake that his new coaches do improve his perceived value and he signs for as much money as he can. It certainly can happen, but the likelihood is that Martin ends up receiving less than that $700k - though perhaps for more than what the Os offered. It seems most times it is in the prospect's best interest, if not going to a major college program, to take the $ and get his professional career started.

IMO, a good agent should be explaining all of this to the family - the benefits of signing right away and taking good $ (relative to the perceived value of the prospect at the draft) or holding out and trying to dramatically increase one's value over the following nine or so months.

[4SeamFB]

I think this is a mistake. Martin isn't refined in his mechanics and could really benefit from tutelage at Cal St. Fullerton. Unless he has some wicked private coaching (which he very well might) I can't imagine he'll get a ton next year. If you don't want to wait, you should have signed with BAL this year and started your career. If you want to max out your value, Fullerton was the way to go (in my uninformed opinion).

You're on target with the mechanics issue. I think part of it (IMO) had to do with concentrating so hard on the hitting/1B aspect of the game, while devoting very little (if any) time to his pitching during his senior year. The summer before his senior year, when he was at the top of everyone's list, he was strong and showed great promise. But his HS team needed him to hit, so most of Jarret's time was spent concentrating on that. Oh well... lessons learned. By the time senior season rolled around, he didn't have a pitching coach and showed poorly in almost every game, while simultaneously breaking a section record for HR's (which was really irrelevant in the whole scheme of things). Jarret has never had a dedicated pitching coach, but the one at his junior college has a way with the lefties, so we'll see.

As far as the draft went, he beat himself up on draft day, knowing he could do better, disappointed, but he got determined. When the O's picked him on the second day, he was thrilled, but he had a feeling they wouldn't pay what it would take to buy him out of Fullerton. On that day, he was still dead set on being a Titan. Over the summer, as he flew back east and visited Camden Yards, played in the Cal Ripken league and lived on his own, he discovered what he really wanted to do, but he knew that the O's wouldn't pay what he wanted, based on how he'd performed his senior season.

The kid has a good head on his shoulders and had to make a couple of very unpopular decisions (declining CSUF and the O's) to go to a place where he feels he can get the dedicated pitching instruction he needs in order to make a better overall showing.

Ah well... what will be will be. But I just wanted to clear up that Jarret wasn't being obstinate or greedy in declining the O's offer... he just decided to take a chance on next year. If it doesn't work out, he loses... but that's what taking a chance is all about. He sure has grown up over it.

[Tony-OH]

You're on target with the mechanics issue. I think part of it (IMO) had to do with concentrating so hard on the hitting/1B aspect of the game, while devoting very little (if any) time to his pitching during his senior year. The summer before his senior year, when he was at the top of everyone's list, he was strong and showed great promise. But his HS team needed him to hit, so most of Jarret's time was spent concentrating on that. Oh well... lessons learned. By the time senior season rolled around, he didn't have a pitching coach and showed poorly in almost every game, while simultaneously breaking a section record for HR's (which was really irrelevant in the whole scheme of things). Jarret has never had a dedicated pitching coach, but the one at his junior college has a way with the lefties, so we'll see.

As far as the draft went, he beat himself up on draft day, knowing he could do better, disappointed, but he got determined. When the O's picked him on the second day, he was thrilled, but he had a feeling they wouldn't pay what it would take to buy him out of Fullerton. On that day, he was still dead set on being a Titan. Over the summer, as he flew back east and visited Camden Yards, played in the Cal Ripken league and lived on his own, he discovered what he really wanted to do, but he knew that the O's wouldn't pay what he wanted, based on how he'd performed his senior season.

The kid has a good head on his shoulders and had to make a couple of very unpopular decisions (declining CSUF and the O's) to go to a place where he feels he can get the dedicated pitching instruction he needs in order to make a better overall showing.

Ah well... what will be will be. But I just wanted to clear up that Jarret wasn't being obstinate or greedy in declining the O's offer... he just decided to take a chance on next year. If it doesn't work out, he loses... but that's what taking a chance is all about. He sure has grown up over it.

You are absolutely right, he's taking a gamble that he can up his value by pitching well at a junior college. The Orioles knew all along what Martin was asking for and I give the kid props for sticking to his guns if that's what he and his family thought he was worth. However, what he gave up was a pretty significant amount of money, professional coaching during the instructional league, minor league spring training next year, and about 40-60 professional innings while hoping he's pitches well enough at a junior college to up his value. You don't get the quality of pitching instruction at a junior college that you are going to get at Cal-Fullerton or in pro baseball, so I'll have to disagree with you about he's doing this for coaching.

The unfortunate part in all of this though is that too many players like Martin are too worried about the upfront money. They think they are worth more than they are. Just in the O's 2008 draft alone, Martin was one of three high school pitchers with upside who decided to go to college instead of pro ball. Both Landers and Brady were rated higher than Martin but both decided to spurn very good offers to go to four year colleges. I can certainly understand a kid choosing to secure his future by going to a four-year college instead of choosing pro ball because even if something happens to them during the three years they'll be three years into a BS degree.

If the O's had three pitchers like this, how many others teams have similar guys? I'd guess there are at least 30 other pitchers of Martin's talent level who are doing something similar. That's a lot of guys Martin has to hope to be better than in 2009 on top of the college juniors and high school seniors. On top of it all, he now has the stigma attached to him that he's a tough sign and that he turned away from a commitment to Cal-Fullerton. Also, in last year's draft, only one junior college pitcher was taken in the first two rounds.

I know Gil Kubski liked Martin and felt like he was good kid with a lot of potential, but sometimes a kid's actions speaks louder than words. He turned down a significant offer (much high than slot money), and turned away from his commitment to a great baseball school, in the hopes of getting a few extra Hundred of thousands of dollars up front.

I give the kid credit for having a lot of confidence in himself, because personally, I think in the long run he's going to wish he had either taken the O's offer or gone to Cal Fullerton. If the kid knew what he wanted to do, then money should not be the only issue. I certainly understand wanting to be paid out of the value of his college education at Cal-Fullerton, but when you just want some extra dough, you have to wonder what is it that drives him? Is it the game of baseball, or the thought of making millions of dollars as a big leaguer? If I'm a scout scouting him, I know have questions over his motivation once he gets a big bonus? Does he still have the motivation to get over that injury or the motivation to pitch through bad stretches? If his motivation is money, once he has some, is that inner desire still there? These are real questions that scouts have to be able to answer before they give their draft recommendation.

Now, if Martin comes out and starts pitching lights out with a major league-type stuff next year, he'll have made the right choice because no one will care what he did this year. But if anything goes wrong, an injury, a bad stretch, another poor year, his value will plummet and he'll only be another 19-year old junior college pitcher who if he's lucky will be able to get another four year program to take a look at him.

I certainly wish him well and hope it works out for him, but he's gambling a lot that he'll suddenly find a junior college coach who will give him the tutelage he needs to get better in order for him to be offered more money in the 2009 draft.

I agree with Hoosiers that a good advisor should have explained all of this to him and his family. This is not about Martin being a villain, but it is about what was best for him in the long run. He's taking a major risk that he didn't have to take. I hope it works out for the kid, but he's fighting some long odds of being worth more next year after his junior college season than this year.

[4SeamFB]

The unfortunate part in all of this though is that too many players like Martin are too worried about the upfront money. They think they are worth more than they are.

Is that what they think? That they are "worth more than they are"? What if they just think that maybe they aren't worth much today, but with some effort and hard work, they can improve their slot and secure a more important place on a team's roster?

Let me ask you this: Do you think teams treat all their draftees the same? Down the road, in five years, will they treat the struggling 20th round pick the same as they will the struggling 2nd round pick? I'm no expert, so that is a genuine question. There are no guarantees in this game, and if a kid has it in his heart that he can be better than he showed in one year, then I think he's smart for trying.

Maybe there's a lot more to consider than just the after-tax bonus dollars that seem to be the focus on whether or not a draftee made the right decision. The kid struggled, had a bad year, wasn't drafted where he wanted to be, and made a commitment to himself to refocus and come back stronger. I can't see how anyone could find fault with that.

[hoosiers]

How many players like Martin though get drafted in the 19th round and never see 3 professional seasons or a league above A-Ball?

This is why the kid needs to either get his degree or start his pro career with a nice bonus and the education probably picked up as well.

The JC route offers several negatives including inferior coaching, potential for injury or general pitching ineffectiveness. The only tangible benefit is significant improvement in draft position into a consensus top 100 talent and even then the randomness of the draft can cause a player to slip for no reason - especially one who turned down big $ earlier.

Against this backdrop, a HS prospect like Martin, who has always probably been the best player in his league, city and perhaps state, must be brought to understand that all the confidence in the world in his abilities is overwhelmingly opposed by the likelihood that a big major league payday is in the cards. Again, a good advisor would let the kid know to cash in the arm for a quality education (along with the great college experience and the potential to pitch for a top college program, and possibly, down the round, another shot at the draft) or for a nice signing bonus - which is why so few top HS pitchers in a draft go this JC route.

[hoosiers]

Maybe there's a lot more to consider than just the after-tax bonus dollars that seem to be the focus on whether or not a draftee made the right decision. The kid struggled, had a bad year, wasn't drafted where he wanted to be, and made a commitment to himself to refocus and come back stronger. I can't see how anyone could find fault with that.

First, the tax-affect of a bonus could probably be negated by spreading the bonus out over time - if losing so much $ to Uncle Sam was an issue - I would be surprised if Uncle Pete (Angelos) would have balked at paying the bonus over four or five years.

Second, there is nothing wrong with refocusing and coming back stronger - but why risk injury, ineffectiveness, the randomness of the draft. Why not come back stronger as a member of the Baltimore Orioles with professional instruction?

Third, how many HS pitchers decide to go the JC route and what percentage of those pitchers improve their draft position significantly into the top three rounds? The Os did draft Beato in the supplemental first round, but he went JC due to injury. I believe the top three round JC pitcher is a pretty rare thing - once or twice a year tops.

[Stotle]

This is why the kid needs to either get his degree or start his pro career with a nice bonus and the education probably picked up as well.

The JC route offers several negatives including inferior coaching, potential for injury or general pitching ineffectiveness. The only tangible benefit is significant improvement in draft position into a consensus top 100 talent and even then the randomness of the draft can cause a player to slip for no reason - especially one who turned down big $ earlier.

Against this backdrop, a HS prospect like Martin, who has always probably been the best player in his league, city and perhaps state, must be brought to understand that all the confidence in the world in his abilities is overwhelmingly opposed by the likelihood that a big major league payday is in the cards. Again, a good advisor would let the kid know to cash in the arm for a quality education (along with the great college experience and the potential to pitch for a top college program, and possibly, down the round, another shot at the draft) or for a nice signing bonus - which is why so few top HS pitchers in a draft go this JC route.

I disagree in part. JC has the benefit of coaches who are looking to attract players who are looking to jump to higher profile college programs and ML draft. As a result, there actually can be a more player-centric focus on development, wherein the coaches look to make players better and move them on so as to attract more like players in the future.

Conversely, big college programs can focus on winning to the detriment of the player (racking up innings on arms and playing players where they might not profile at all as pros if it suits the team's purpose).

Of course, this isn't a rule or necessarily common place. But there are potential benefits to JCs and negatives to consder with big Div-I programs.

All that said, I'd wager a player generally improves himself more at a big Div-I program than he does with a year at a JC. If I choose JC and still am not happy with my draft spot, I look to go to a Div-I program for 2 years figuring another year of JC won't get it done and one extra year is an okay trade-off for some advanced coaching.

[Frobby]

The kid had a lot of work to do after a ridiculously poor senior spring (pitching, that is... he did hit 18 homeruns) so decided to go to J.C. and work with a renowned coach of left-handed pitchers, and hopefully be drafted again in June in a lower round. Of course it's now a gamble on Jarret's part. But he really did it for the right reasons.

Is the "renowned coach of left-handed pitchers" at the JC, or is this someone he is working with privately? If the coach really is considered top-notch and is at the JC then that would work against Tony's argument that he's making a mistake by giving up Cal State - Fullerton.

[Tony-OH]

Let me ask you this: Do you think teams treat all their draftees the same? Down the road, in five years, will they treat the struggling 20th round pick the same as they will the struggling 2nd round pick? I'm no expert, so that is a genuine question.

No, teams certainly don't treat all players the same, but it has more to do with money invested in the player than the round they were drafted in. If Martin was offered 500K (I'm not saying he was because I don't know the actual amount Martin was offered), it doesn't matter that he was drafted in the late teen rounds, he'll be treated like a second round guy, which means he will have to prove he can't pitch rather than prove he can if you catch my drift.

There are no guarantees in this game, and if a kid has it in his heart that he can be better than he showed in one year, then I think he's smart for trying.

Sure, but he has to understand the nature of the draft and professional baseball. Every year he's older he's worth less to an organization. Now, he can offset that by having success in a major college program or for a pitcher, increasing his velocity.

Maybe there's a lot more to consider than just the after-tax bonus dollars that seem to be the focus on whether or not a draftee made the right decision. The kid struggled, had a bad year, wasn't drafted where he wanted to be, and made a commitment to himself to refocus and come back stronger. I can't see how anyone could find fault with that.

No one is faulting him. I'm just trying to give you the realities that he's facing by bypassing a pretty large professional bonus already and/or a four-year program at a major college program like Cal-Fullerton.

Basically by going to a junior college, he's going to have to be pretty darn impressive to up his value because he now has to be better than a whole other batch of high school seniors who will be willing to sign. It's just simple economics. He will be a year older than those 17-18-year old high school seniors so if they are the same talent level, he's going to be worth less because he's a year older. Now, he could go and pick up some velocity or significantly improve his command, and that might convince someone take a chance on him, but he'll need something major to improve in order for his value to improve.

He very well get drafted higher than he did, but he'll need to get drafted in the top 2-4 rounds to improve upon the money he was already reportedly offered.

[Tony-OH]

Is the "renowned coach of left-handed pitchers" at the JC, or is this someone he is working with privately? If the coach really is considered top-notch and is at the JC then that would work against Tony's argument that he's making a mistake by giving up Cal State - Fullerton.

No offense to any JC college coaches, but if they were truly "top notch" they probably would be coaching somewhere besides a JC program. There may be an up and coming coach who is starting out at a JC program, but I'd be willing to bet a kid is going to get better pitching instruction in the pros or at a major college program.

I agree with Stotle that young pitchers have to choose their four-year college programs very carefully. Texas has a reputation of destroying young arms (See Beau Hale) in order to win. In the minors, young pitchers are protected from overthrowing and all of their tweaks/injuries are treated with professional trainers.

If a young pitcher blows out his arm in the minors, he'll get a professional staff of trainers and doctors to rehab under. If he does it in JC, he's going to be basically on his own and his future value will plummet.

[TakebackOPACY]

Tim Painton, the Head Coach at Bakersfield College, has been there for 12 years and was an assistant at Fresno St. for 10 years.

Here is a list of professional baseball players who attended Bakersfield College. Most notable are Phillip Dumatrait, a first round pick (22nd overall) in 2000, and Jake Woods, a third round pick (89th overall) in 2001. Both are lefty pitchers. Maybe these guys were draft-n-follows. I don't know. Not that this means anything, but if the draft-n-follow still existed, we'd be pretty psyched that he's passing up D1 to play JuCo.

Specifically looking from the outside at his situation, I would tend to think that Cal St. Fullerton or the O's look like better options. But what the hell do I know. As Brandon Snyder said, "A lot of times, people don't know the first thing about what or who they are talking about." (Great Q & A blog, yesterday, by the way) As a matter of principal, I don't think attending Jr. College for one year is a mistake or a major risk. It can be the beginning of a strong foundation for any path he takes, as long as he treats it that way.

[skipshot26]

This kid made a huge mistake. He should have gone to Fullerton. Dave Serrano is a fantastic pitching coach and a world class human being. See his bio here: http://fullertontitans.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/serrano_dave00.html

The bottom line is that if he wanted to become a better baseball player he would want to expose himself to the highest caliber competition he could in the best environment he could find. CSUF is a fantastic program that prides iself on getting the most out of the talent it's players possess.

By the way, if anyone knows how to coach LH pitchers, it's Dave Serrano.

I'll say it again, the kid made a huge mistake.