7 new international signings

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Gatoriole said:

This is essentially correct. I don't think the amount is necessarily the same year to year, so I wouldn't call it reset. But we cannot use any unused amount of this year's allotment and we do receive a new allotment. 

 

I believe the date is July 2 (which you may see referenced as "J2").

July 2 is the start date of when the new allotment can be spent.   I believe the deadline for the old allotment is a couple of weeks before that.    There’s a brief “dead zone” where teams can’t spend either allotment.    I assume the purpose of that is to avoid various shenanigans from occurring right at the cross-over date.   

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The 2013-2016 Orioles were not an attractive landing spot for free agent pitching or Dexter Fowler.

He made a brilliant decision.   He backed out of a 3 year, $35 mm deal with us and took an $8 mm one year deal with the Cubs.  He went out and had a 4.1 WAR season for the Cubs, by far the best year of his career, helped them win a World Series and parlayed that into a 5 year, $82.5 mm deal with the Cardinals.    In the three years since then, he’s been worth 1.6, -1.4, and 1.7 rWAR.     

So, imagine he’d stuck with us an put up 4.1, 1.6, and -1.4 rWAR for his $35 mm.    What do you think his next contract would have looked like?     He would have needed to get 3/$55.5 mm in that next deal to equal what he has gotten/will get from the Cubs and Cards in those years.    My guess is he would have fallen short by, oh, about $35-45 mm.

In short, I don’t know if Fowler really wasn’t attracted to Baltimore, or whether he just bet on himself that he could do better than 3/$35 mm if he went out and had a good season.    His market that winter had been very soft to that point, and 3/$35 mm for him did seem very cheap based on his track record at that point (he was basically a 2 WAR player coming off a 2.4 WAR season).    Things worked out great for him.  

For us?    Well, that 2016 team would definitely have been better with a 4.1 WAR version of Fowler in the lineup.   My guess is that we wouldn’t have signed Pedro Alvarez and Trumbo would have been full time DH instead of playing a lot of RF.   My guess is that exchange would have been worth 3-4 wins for us, pretty material when you consider that we finished 4 games behind Boston and that Toronto had the tie-breaker for the wild card.    We might have won the division, or at a minimum been the host of the WC game and possibly had a different outcome there.   But of course, we’ll never know.    And it certainly doesn’t seem that Fowler would have precluded our slide into oblivion thereafter.    

It’s interesting to think about what might have been.   



 

[ChosenOne21]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The 2013-2016 Orioles were not an attractive landing spot for free agent pitching or Dexter Fowler.

Fine, but how do you know it was specifically the physical?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Fine, but how do you know it was specifically the physical?

I didn't say it was in Fowler's case. 

As for the pitchers, I don't have a source and I'm not going to try and dig one up.

I do recall reading that some FA pitchers completely excluded the Orioles from contention because of the physical.  It was a valid strategy since if it leaks you failed a physical (Balfour) it hurts your value when working with the other clubs (2/15 became 2/12).

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, Philip said:

 The NBA is seeing more European participation, does the MLB have any scouts or investigators in Europe? Baseball is not very big over there, but if you can throw 95, run, have quick reflexes, And you’re 16, I bet major-league baseball would be happy to take a look at you.

 

17 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Two of the biggest problems in bold. Same reason the USA does not have many international soccer stars. Kids just don't play soccer as much in this country. It's hard to throw 95, and people don't just naturally throw that hard, and Europe is not making it a point to have their children learn to do it.

 

16 hours ago, Philip said:

That’s what I was thinking as well, soccer is easy. At least soccer looks easy. You just have to have unbelievable stamina. I’m pretty sure there’s more to it than that, but it’s hard to see. On the other hand, Money sure does stimulate interest. 

MLB most certainly pays attention to European baseball.  There has been an established league in Holland for years.  It's probably A-ball quality, just with half the players being 28 or 30 or 32.  They do fairly well in international competition.  The Italians are on par with the Dutch, or somewhere close.  The Orioles used to have some kind of loose affiliation with the San Marino team in the Italian Baseball Serie A.  There's been a baseball Bundesliga in Germany for many years.  It's essentially a semi-pro league with stadiums akin to the Appy League or something.  A friend of mine who's from Munich started a team called the Baldham Boars that now plays in Germany's 2nd or 3rd tier.  Many other countries in Europe have leagues, all pretty low level.  Once in a while a prospect comes out of Europe, like Max Kepler. 

But not often, because very few kids play baseball there.  It's most certainly not because baseball is hard and soccer is easy.  Soccer is easy to throw six-year-old kids on the field and have it look something like soccer.  Six-year-old baseball is ridiculous, with constant wild pitches and walks and strikeouts and .100 fielding percentages.  But to master soccer, to get to a high amateur or pro level, to understand the flow of the game and have field vision and get the strategy and have a brilliant first touch and on and on... that's as hard as anything else you spend 15 or 20 years practicing constantly and playing all the time. 

Europeans play soccer because that's their culture, that's their #1 sport beyond all others.  Dieter and Simon and Raul all grew up with their fathers and grandfathers and all their friends playing and rooting for Dortmund or Tottenham or Real.  It's on the TV from the time they're infants.  Baseball is just a strange sport that Americans and Japanese people and a handful of others play, and you sometimes see in American movies.

Sending a bunch of new baseball scouts to Europe would be similar to English cricket teams blanketing the US with scouts.  Every once in a while you might uncover a raw prospect.  But the ROI might not be great.

[Roll Tide]

17 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Two of the biggest problems in bold. Same reason the USA does not have many international soccer stars. Kids just don't play soccer as much in this country. It's hard to throw 95, and people don't just naturally throw that hard, and Europe is not making it a point to have their children learn to do it.

My buddies son played/plays for a Turkish National team. He played here his Pre 18 year old youth career here. 

I 

[sportsfan8703]

Is there one succinct list of who we signed and what they signed for?  I’m just most curious to see who were the big signings $$$ wise for us. 

[emmett16]

21 hours ago, Philip said:

 The NBA is seeing more European participation, does the MLB have any scouts or investigators in Europe? Baseball is not very big over there, but if you can throw 95, run, have quick reflexes, And you’re 16, I bet major-league baseball would be happy to take a look at you.

 I played baseball in Europe.  You don’t see 95.  You don’t often see 90.  The best players on euro squads are the 3 international slots they allow which are typically taken by Dominicans, Cubans, and Venezuelans.  

[emmett16]

19 hours ago, Philip said:

That’s what I was thinking as well, soccer is easy. At least soccer looks easy. You just have to have unbelievable stamina. I’m pretty sure there’s more to it than that, but it’s hard to see. On the other hand, Money sure does stimulate interest. 

US soccer is terrible because the best athletes play basketball and football.  If Lebron James  was a center back and (name a fast running back) was attacking forward we would never loose the World Cup.  
 

Any player in USA who plays soccer and is good goes to Europe at a young age.  Thing is, those kids arent the elite American athletes.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

He made a brilliant decision.   He backed out of a 3 year, $35 mm deal with us and took an $8 mm one year deal with the Cubs.  He went out and had a 4.1 WAR season for the Cubs, by far the best year of his career, helped them win a World Series and parlayed that into a 5 year, $82.5 mm deal with the Cardinals.    In the three years since then, he’s been worth 1.6, -1.4, and 1.7 rWAR.     

So, imagine he’d stuck with us an put up 4.1, 1.6, and -1.4 rWAR for his $35 mm.    What do you think his next contract would have looked like?     He would have needed to get 3/$55.5 mm in that next deal to equal what he has gotten/will get from the Cubs and Cards in those years.    My guess is he would have fallen short by, oh, about $35-45 mm.

In short, I don’t know if Fowler really wasn’t attracted to Baltimore, or whether he just bet on himself that he could do better than 3/$35 mm if he went out and had a good season.    His market that winter had been very soft to that point, and 3/$35 mm for him did seem very cheap based on his track record at that point (he was basically a 2 WAR player coming off a 2.4 WAR season).    Things worked out great for him.  

For us?    Well, that 2016 team would definitely have been better with a 4.1 WAR version of Fowler in the lineup.   My guess is that we wouldn’t have signed Pedro Alvarez and Trumbo would have been full time DH instead of playing a lot of RF.   My guess is that exchange would have been worth 3-4 wins for us, pretty material when you consider that we finished 4 games behind Boston and that Toronto had the tie-breaker for the wild card.    We might have won the division, or at a minimum been the host of the WC game and possibly had a different outcome there.   But of course, we’ll never know.    And it certainly doesn’t seem that Fowler would have precluded our slide into oblivion thereafter.    

It’s interesting to think about what might have been.   



 

I agree. I wasn't going to say pitchers and have someone throw Fowler at me.  So I included him

 

[Number5]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sending a bunch of new baseball scouts to Europe would be similar to English cricket teams blanketing the US with scouts.  Every once in a while you might uncover a raw prospect.  But the ROI might not be great.

With all the hard foul balls he hit, I bet Rick Dempsey would have been great at cricket.  

[jerios55]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is my thinking. I’m happy we spent all but 1.5 million of our budget. 

We just can’t ignore 1/2 the talent grab anymore. This is how to rebuild. 

One other thing I think we need to remember.  Last January was when we signed Koby Perez and he did spend some of the 2018 money between January and prior to July 2nd 2019.  

While it still wont be big signings I have a feeling we won't have 1.5mill left when this period ends.

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is there one succinct list of who we signed and what they signed for?  I’m just most curious to see who were the big signings $$$ wise for us. 

Best I can do for you. The Orioles have stated that players from Venezuela do not have their $$$ reported because it puts their families at risk.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

21 hours ago, emmett16 said:

US soccer is terrible because the best athletes play basketball and football.  If Lebron James  was a center back and (name a fast running back) was attacking forward we would never loose the World Cup.  
 

Any player in USA who plays soccer and is good goes to Europe at a young age.  Thing is, those kids arent the elite American athletes.  

There's a lot more to it than that.  Iceland made the last World Cup and did quite well in the prior European Championships.  They have as many people, and presumably similar numbers of elite athletes, as Southern Maryland (Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's Counties).  US Soccer could be quite competitive with the talent pool they currently have, but the development system and culture and management of US soccer is somewhat lacking.  Iceland has 3000 people with their A license, which is what's required to be a professional-level soccer coach, in a population of about 300k.  I don't know, but the US might not have many more than 3000 people with an A license and we have 300 million people.

Kind of like the Dominican and baseball.  San Pedro de Macoris is famous for producing players and it has about as many people as Harrisburg.  I doubt it's because they have an unusual number of exceptionally elite athletes. 

But having said all that, it wouldn't hurt US soccer if all the best athletes stopped playing football and other sports and moved to soccer.  Although Le Bron would be an unusual soccer player at 6' 9".  Peter Crouch looks like a giraffe on a soccer pitch and he's 6' 7".

[DrungoHazewood]

21 hours ago, Number5 said:

With all the hard foul balls he hit, I bet Rick Dempsey would have been great at cricket.  

I remember the announcers constantly saying that Rick Dempsey hit more line drives right at fielders than anyone ever.  Today we'd just look at his batting average on line drives and we'd know for sure.  I have my doubts.