Poll: If Darvish is posted...

[bird watcher]

Yeah... I've decided I don't care about the cost... I have been saying for years I want the O's to be a mixture of high dollar elites, and minimal cost productive young players... and I am going to stick with that mantra...

I think with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Scott.... Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta (and the rest of our younger arms).... the O's are positioned well for extreme contracts to Darvish, and Tex...

There is risk with any player... and risk certainly with signing a player who has never appeared in MLB to that type of deal....

Still... I am convinced that when you can sign franchise changing talent for ages 22-27, that it is worth that risk... especially for a franchise such as the Orioles...

I realize I am the only one with this perspective though, and that it will not happen....

No you're not. I feel the same way. Lots of young cheap guys and 5-6 really high priced guys. Go O's

[mweb]

Yeah... I've decided I don't care about the cost... I have been saying for years I want the O's to be a mixture of high dollar elites, and minimal cost productive young players... and I am going to stick with that mantra...

I think with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Scott.... Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta (and the rest of our younger arms).... the O's are positioned well for extreme contracts to Darvish, and Tex...

There is risk with any player... and risk certainly with signing a player who has never appeared in MLB to that type of deal....

Still... I am convinced that when you can sign franchise changing talent for ages 22-27, that it is worth that risk... especially for a franchise such as the Orioles...

I realize I am the only one with this perspective though, and that it will not happen....

That's a good mantra to have, one I mostly agree with, but not caring about the cost should not be part of that mantra. There still has to be some sanity regarding contracts, especially when the team can't spend with the likes of the Yanks, Sox, and Mets. If this was Mets or Yanks Hangout, I would be more inclined to come around to your side.

Although, again, I just can't see spending 170-180M(when you consider the upfront cost being more than if it was spread out) for 5 years of a player, especially a pitcher.

[Stotle]

I look forward to that report..... clearly you have an extremely knowledgeable scouting background.... but while I will respect your opinion either way... it won't carry more weight than his measureable productivity...

Plus.... I think the comments from 3 current/former MLB Managers, and Sledge speak for itself...

No doubt -- I've just been meaning to sit down and actually break down his stuff and this convo gave me the motivation. I wouldn't expect my opinion to carry more weight than anyone elses around here, let alone professional managers and players.

[mweb]

No you're not. I feel the same way. Lots of young cheap guys and 5-6 really high priced guys. Go O's

Might be a problem though when the top two guys(Darvish, Tex) are costing the team 55M on average.

[bird watcher]

Just getting back to the player himself... check out this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h26pkQpVB1I&feature=related

Obviously you like the power, the velocity, the movement...... but what I really like is the moxey, and the attitude, and the confidence he clearly exodus...

This is a guy that goes at hitters.... says my best is better than your best... he is going to be the leader of staffs for a long-time.

Down in the zone. Lots of movement. Sharp late breaking curve. Fastball that runs in on righties.

Nasty. Sign me up.

[Sports Guy]

Is there any chance that if you put a 4/50 type deal on the table that Darvish would say no to that?

[mweb]

Maybe it is.... but if you can field the rest of your team for next 4-5 years at another $45-$55M, what is really the problem?

5 years $75M for Darvish, + $75M Posting fee

Sign Markakis to a roughly 6 year $70M extension prior to Opening Day

Sign Jones to a roughly 6 year $20-$25M extension prior to Opening Day

Sign Roberts to a 3 year $36M extension, buying out 2009, and extending through 2011

Sign Tex to a 6yrs $120M deal with options for 7th, and 8th years that ultimatically vest on performance

Roberts 2nd $12M

Jones CF $3.3M

Markakis RF $11.5M

Teixiera 1st $20M

Wieters C $0.5M

Mora 3rd $8M

Scott DH $2M

Reimold LF $0.5M

SS $0.5M

Hernandez, Montanez, Moore, Costanzo = $9.5M

Darvish $15M

Guthrie $2M

Cabrera $4M

Olson $1M

Penn $0.5M

Sherrill $1.5M

Ray $1M

Johnson $0.5M

Albers $0.5M

Walker $4M

Bierd $0.5M

Sarfate $0.5M

Total Payroll = $98.8Million

$98.8 Million

+ $75M posting fee for Darvish

+ $5.5M 2009 buyout on Baez

= $179.3M Total Expenditures for 2009

In 2010, the team payroll goes back to the more manageable $100M range… Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Hernandez, Bergesen will push for spots on the staff.

In 2010... You lose Hernandez's contract, you lose Mora's contract, (in the above scenerio I have traded Huff... but if you do not.. you lose his contract)

Cabrera gets replaced internally with younger, cheaper options...

You can afford a couple of extreme contracts.. and still have a contending team around them for roughly $100M total during the next 5 years...

I'm going to average Darvish's posting fee over the course of the contract plus interest, since that's likely how the O's would be paying for it.

So that adds about $20M a year to your payroll figures, on top of that, the contracts of Nick, Jones, Brob will go up as the years go on, the won't be the same amount each year. Plus, the arbitration of Guthrie, Scott, Sherrill, etc will raise the payroll in the next few years. Then we are really depending on our young guys to come through, because we don't have much depth of good established players.

On top of that, we still aren't likely to contend next year. I would take Dunn plus CC(don't really want to sign him either) for the same amount as Darvish, or Dunn, Burnett, Furcal for example. We are more likely to win with those combo's imo.

Plus the risk factor is enormous when giving that much money to a young pitcher who has never pitched in the majors, especially with the budget the O's likely have.

[mweb]

Is there any chance that if you put a 4/50 type deal on the table that Darvish would say no to that?

Yes, because he can probably get more than that, it's all in the art of negotiating.

Wouldn't you want him longer than 4 years anyway? The longer the contract, the less you pay on average per year due to the posting fee, plus he's obviously very young.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, because he can probably get more than that, it's all in the art of negotiating.

Wouldn't you want him longer than 4 years anyway? The longer the contract, the less you pay on average per year due to the posting fee, plus he's obviously very young.

The posting fee doesn't bother me all that much.

I guess my point in what I was asking is if we have to give a huge posting fee(which we would), can we get him to sign a smaller contract that the 5/75 deal being thrown around?

[mweb]

The posting fee doesn't bother me all that much.

I guess my point in what I was asking is if we have to give a huge posting fee(which we would), can we get him to sign a smaller contract that the 5/75 deal being thrown around?

I just don't get how anyone can consider the posting fee as being unimportant. It doesn't matter how or to who the O's are paying the money, it's just a matter of them paying that money.

Yes, it's certainly possible that he could be signed for less.

[Sports Guy]

I just don't get how anyone can consider the posting fee as being unimportant. It doesn't matter how or to who the O's are paying the money, it's just a matter of them paying that money.

Yes, it's certainly possible that he could be signed for less.

Because its not a number against the cap.

If the Orioles decide to pay that posting fee it is because of one thing...MASN.

It tells me that there is plenty of money being made and it won't effect anything.

Now, I don't think there is a chance in hell AM would even remotely consider the posting fee, so none of this really matters outside of a good baseball discussion.

I will say that i would rather give Darvish 130-150 million over 5 or 6 years(including the posting fee) than I would CC.

[geschinger]

Because its not a number against the cap.

If the Orioles decide to pay that posting fee it is because of one thing...MASN.

It tells me that there is plenty of money being made and it won't effect anything.

The Orioles are in little danger of ever being in the category where trying to avoid revenue sharing payments is an issue.

I also seriously doubt that MASN is making plenty of money. The economics relative to other RSNs is not in the O's favor.

[mweb]

Because its not a number against the cap.

If the Orioles decide to pay that posting fee it is because of one thing...MASN.

It tells me that there is plenty of money being made and it won't effect anything.

Now, I don't think there is a chance in hell AM would even remotely consider the posting fee, so none of this really matters outside of a good baseball discussion.

I will say that i would rather give Darvish 130-150 million over 5 or 6 years(including the posting fee) than I would CC.

It just doesn't matter if it's against the cap or not though, it's still being paid out of the O's budget regardless, probably over multiple years anyway.

Oh ok, so spending 75M on a posting fee won't affect anything...right, that makes tons of sense.

CC won't cost nearly as much per year as Darvish(at least going by the numbers that are being thrown around) when accounting for the posting fee.

Would you rather have Darvish than CC and Dunn? Because if Darvish is signed to a 5/75 deal and costs 75M for the posting fee, there isn't much of a difference in cost there.

[Sports Guy]

It just doesn't matter if it's against the cap or not though, it's still being paid out of the O's budget regardless, probably over multiple years anyway.

Oh ok, so spending 75M on a posting fee won't affect anything...right, that makes tons of sense.

CC won't cost nearly as much per year as Darvish(at least going by the numbers that are being thrown around) when accounting for the posting fee.

Would you rather have Darvish than CC and Dunn? Because if Darvish is signed to a 5/75 deal and costs 75M for the posting fee, there isn't much of a difference in cost there.

If the Orioles spent the 75 million on the posting fee then no, I don't think it will effect much.

That will tell you that they are making a lot more money than any of us think with MASN, etc...

AM isn't going to do this...We know that. But if he were willing to committ this amount of dollars to him, then it tells me they feel the 75 million isn't as important as it sounds.

[Flosman]

I think the real questions are: Do the O's have the financial ability to make this move and the player fail and still build a winner? Do the players skill translate to a top of the rotation starter?

If the answer is yes to both questions than you do it. It is a situation that could help speed up the arrival of pitching to the O's without costing picks and having the guy under control for atleast 6 years if he is successful.

Watching the video he cetainly seems interesting. I liked his smooth easy motion and he seemed to have alot of movement. However hegot a ton of swings at balls and I don't know how that plays in the majors. But I had the same concern about Dice-K.