Chance Sisco 2020

[HowAboutThat]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Unless Rutschman is going to catch 162 games, a lefty hitting backup catcher that can play passable defense would come in pretty handy.

That is correct, do you have anybody in mind?

[SurhoffRules]

36 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I would add that the more effective way to run up pitch counts is likely through chaining hits/on base events together, rather than maximizing individual PA pitch counts. 

Totally back of the napkin math, but based on 2019 numbers:

Raising team OBP by .005 points would raise the opposing pitch count in the same manner as increasing team Pitches Per Plate Appearance by .0148.

All thing being equal you could make the average opposing pitchers throw 5 more pitches a game by raising your team OBP from .323 (lgAvg) to .363 or by increasing you team PperPA from 3.93 (lgAvg) to 4.05.

[SurhoffRules]

Interestingly, (or not) there may appear to be some loose association between OBP and P/PA in 2019, with most teams (27) being within 1.5 StdDevs of the average. Two additional teams clock in within +/- 1.8 stdDevs.

Houston being the special case of 2.5 stdDevs, with a league leading .352 OBP while finishing 7th from the bottom in P/PA with 3.87....go figure.

Note: I have absolutely not looked at historical trends for what is/isn't normal.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

You hear that lament when you have a player with a high BA but a low OBP.   But normally, if you hold OBP constant, you’d rather have the BA component be higher and the walk rate lower, for the simple reason that walks sometimes don’t advance a runner, and never advance a runner more than one base, whereas hits always advance a runner, and often by more than one base.     Of course, you also have to look at SLG to fully evaluate the player.

An interesting comparison from last year would be Chance Sisco vs. Hanser Alberto.    Sisco hit .210/.333/.396; Alberto hit .305/.329/.422.     Their OBP’s were close to equal; Alberto had the much higher BA; Alberto also had the higher SLG, but his ISO was much lower.    Per Fangraphs, they had a near identical wOBA: .319 for Sisco, .318 for Alberto.  But by BB-ref’s runs created per game, Alberto wins handily, 4.9 to 4.3.     I can’t really explain why wOBA and RC/G would yield such divergent results.    I would expect them to line up nicely.    Maybe @DrungoHazewood has a theory.   

Just spitballing, but wOBA is based on average run values of various offensive events.  Runs Created comes in various flavors based on approximations that work out in most situations.  For example, the simple version of runs created is (H+BB)*TB/(AB+BB). There are more refined/advanced versions, but they're all going to be less accurate (and not give you the same results especially in edge cases) than something that uses actual historical run values of individual events.

The advantage of runs created is that it's very simple to calculate and most of the time it's reasonably accurate.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Just spitballing, but wOBA is based on average run values of various offensive events.  Runs Created comes in various flavors based on approximations that work out in most situations.  For example, the simple version of runs created is (H+BB)*TB/(AB+BB). There are more refined/advanced versions, but they're all going to be less accurate (and not give you the same results especially in edge cases) than something that uses actual historical run values of individual events.

The advantage of runs created is that it's very simple to calculate and most of the time it's reasonably accurate.

Thanks.   I hadn’t realized that runs crested was that simplistic.    Sounds like wOBA is the better measure of offensive utility.

[Frobby]

Good discussion of Sisco here.    Among other things, the article points to a number of good signs from last year and says that for a lot of catchers, age 25 is their breakout year.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-about-baltimores-other-catcher-of-the-future/

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good discussion of Sisco here.    Among other things, the article points to a number of good signs from last year and says that for a lot of catchers, age 25 is their breakout year.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-about-baltimores-other-catcher-of-the-future/

That's good, but I sure wish we were seeing any flashes of it this spring. Then again, he murdered last spring so obviously it doesn't really matter.

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

The first time in his career as the lead-off hitter ........ 

 

 

(vs. BLUE JAYS, 8/18)

 

 

NUMBER 3

 

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO 

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

CHANCE THOMAS LEO SISCO

 

o

[Ruzious]

On 3/12/2020 at 12:26 PM, Frobby said:

Good discussion of Sisco here.    Among other things, the article points to a number of good signs from last year and says that for a lot of catchers, age 25 is their breakout year.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-about-baltimores-other-catcher-of-the-future/

Well who'd a thunk that catchers generally take more time to develop than say... outfielders?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Well who'd a thunk that catchers generally take more time to develop than say... outfielders?

I don't know, I've been hearing a lot about how much time it takes to learn how to play left field.  It seems pretty complicated.

[Moose Milligan]

Dude needs to be playing every day, either catching or DH.  Or maybe 1st base, if he can.

I sincerely hope that we make the playoffs.  IMO, the worst place to be is outside of the playoffs and stuck not picking inside the top 5.  That could be a possibility here.  A playoff run, even in this wacky 2020 season, would be exciting and a boost in the arm for the confidence of some of the younger players.  

I think we can call agree that we wanted to see some of our prospects develop this year, that's probably the most important thing of all.  And if Sisco can be a guy that breaks out this year that's a great thing.  So it's in his best interest to keep playing, it's also in the teams best interest to keep him playing if they want to win.  

[NCRaven]

Let’s have a tailgate party in the parking lot next to the warehouse during the game tonight.  Bring “We want Mountcastle” signs.  That makes it a protest so the BPD can’t touch us.

[OFFNY]

o

 

Could Sisco Get More Chances to Bat Lead-off ???

(By Roch Kubatko)

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/08/could-sisco-get-more-chances-to-bat-leadoff.html

 

o

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude needs to be playing every day, either catching or DH.  Or maybe 1st base, if he can.

I sincerely hope that we make the playoffs.  IMO, the worst place to be is outside of the playoffs and stuck not picking inside the top 5.  That could be a possibility here.  A playoff run, even in this wacky 2020 season, would be exciting and a boost in the arm for the confidence of some of the younger players.  

I think we can call agree that we wanted to see some of our prospects develop this year, that's probably the most important thing of all.  And if Sisco can be a guy that breaks out this year that's a great thing.  So it's in his best interest to keep playing, it's also in the teams best interest to keep him playing if they want to win.  

I mentioned in another thread that Hyde said all of his catchers are taking ground balls at other positions.  Would love to know how Sisco looks at other positions.

ultimately, hopefully he hits enough and we can just trade him for good value.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mentioned in another thread that Hyde said all of his catchers are taking ground balls at other positions.  Would love to know how Sisco looks at other positions.

ultimately, hopefully he hits enough and we can just trade him for good value.

If he can pick up another position and still hit, I'd want to hold onto him.  I'd look to trade Mancini first.