Minor League Outfielders

[Frobby]

If someone has an intelligant answer to why tripp isnt on there, please, i would love to read your reply. if not, dont bother, im sick of reading these peoples replys who have no idea what there talking about. like there some scout or something. i go buy numbers. and as it looks, tripp has almost all the numbers stacking in his favor against angle and avery.

I've only seen Tripp play once, and I've never seen Angle or Avery play. So pretty much everything I'm going to say is just going off statistics, or second hand information.

First, I think you have to leave Avery out of the discussion. He's a very young prospect, coming out of high school. You really can't compare him to two guys who played at a major college program and are 4-5 years older. He looks pretty raw and it's going to take a couple of years to size up whether he has the potential to be a major league player.

Now, as to Tripp vs. Angle, I frankly think both of them are going to have a hard time reaching the majors. You are certainly right that Tripp at 23 in the Carolina League is not older for his league that Angle was for the Sally League (in fact, comparatively speaking, Tripp is several months younger). Tripp had better numbers in the Sally League than Angle:

Tripp: .288/.377/.531

Angle: .287/.385/.379

But Angle had better numbers at Aberdeen:

Tripp: .221/.345/.317

Angle: .301/.421/.352

And Tripp did not fare well at Frederick this year: .236/.296/.402

So, what I come away with is the following:

1. Tripp has much better power than Angle. In fact, Angle has no power whatsoever to speak of.

2. While Angle will have to prove it next year, he's probably the better hitter for average of the two, and will generate a higher OBP. Tripp's average has been below .240 for two years out of three; Angle hasn't hit lower than .287. Strikeouts remain a big problem for Tripp: 145 K's in 428 AB this year, 112 in 371 AB last year. Angle doesn't strike out much and therefore has a better chance to maintain a decent average. Of course, Angle hasn't reached Frederick yet and we'll have to see whether he maintains his average there.

3. Tripp has a good arm, but Angle is probably the better defensive OF. He plays CF, and by all accounts has very good speed and excellent defensive skills. Tripp has decent speed but he's not a CF, at least not in the majors.

4. Angle is the better baserunner, having stolen 71 bases in 2 years.

Overall, I'd have to rank Angle ahead of Tripp right now. I have a feeling they will be playing side-by-side in the Frederick OF next year, which will provide a better basis for judgment. But honestly, I'd say both of them have a less than 25% chance of reaching the majors, just based on the numbers they have put up at their ages, compared to the numbers put up by the Oriole prospects who have reached the majors in recent years. Hopefully, they will prove me wrong.

[Tony-OH]

I've only seen Tripp play once, and I've never seen Angle or Avery play. So pretty much everything I'm going to say is just going off statistics, or second hand information.

First, I think you have to leave Avery out of the discussion. He's a very young prospect, coming out of high school. You really can't compare him to two guys who played at a major college program and are 4-5 years older. He looks pretty raw and it's going to take a couple of years to size up whether he has the potential to be a major league player.

Now, as to Tripp vs. Angle, I frankly think both of them are going to have a hard time reaching the majors. You are certainly right that Tripp at 23 in the Carolina League is not older for his league that Angle was for the Sally League (in fact, comparatively speaking, Tripp is several months younger). Tripp had better numbers in the Sally League than Angle:

Tripp: .288/.377/.531

Angle: .287/.385/.379

But Angle had better numbers at Aberdeen:

Tripp: .221/.345/.317

Angle: .301/.421/.352

And Tripp did not fare well at Frederick this year: .236/.296/.402

So, what I come away with is the following:

1. Tripp has much better power than Angle. In fact, Angle has no power whatsoever to speak of.

2. While Angle will have to prove it next year, he's probably the better hitter for average of the two, and will generate a higher OBP. Tripp's average has been below .240 for two years out of three; Angle hasn't hit lower than .287. Strikeouts remain a big problem for Tripp: 145 K's in 428 AB this year, 112 in 371 AB last year. Angle doesn't strike out much and therefore has a better chance to maintain a decent average. Of course, Angle hasn't reached Frederick yet and we'll have to see whether he maintains his average there.

3. Tripp has a good arm, but Angle is probably the better defensive OF. He plays CF, and by all accounts has very good speed and excellent defensive skills. Tripp has decent speed but he's not a CF, at least not in the majors.

4. Angle is the better baserunner, having stolen 71 bases in 2 years.

Overall, I'd have to rank Angle ahead of Tripp right now. I have a feeling they will be playing side-by-side in the Frederick OF next year, which will provide a better basis for judgment. But honestly, I'd say both of them have a less than 25% chance of reaching the majors, just based on the numbers they have put up at their ages, compared to the numbers put up by the Oriole prospects who have reached the majors in recent years. Hopefully, they will prove me wrong.

Nice wrap up Frobby. Currently, Angle profiles a 4th outfielder and Tripp is an organizational guy. Although Tripp has some good tools, he has too many holes in his swing and if you think A-ball pitchers carved him up, Double-A pitchers will have their way with him.

The concern on Angle is whether he can handle the good fastball, especially the inside fastball. His plate discipline improved greatly in the second half and he became the hitter the Orioles had hoped he would be this year I that string second half.

From everything I've heard, Angle is outstanding in center and will profile there. I'd probably say that Angle has a 25% chance of starting in the major leagues but probably a 50% chance of carving out a career as a fourth outfielder due to his CF skills and OBP.

[Frobby]

From everything I've heard, Angle is outstanding in center and will profile there. I'd probably say that Angle has a 25% chance of starting in the major leagues but probably a 50% chance of carving out a career as a fourth outfielder due to his CF skills and OBP.

I just question whether a team will carry a guy with so little power. His isolated power is about on par with Brandon Fahey's (no I am not exaggerating). He will need to keep his OBP from slipping too much further as he moves up the chain.

[bballchiksinc96]

This is probably the weakest part of our minor league system, but its also probably the strongest part of our major league club.

Where do you expect these players to be next season?

Not with the club, Baltimore, Norfolk, Bowie, Fredrick, etc

Lou Montanez

Jeff Fiorientino

Tike Redman

Chris Roberson

Luis Terrero

Nolan Reimold

Mike Rodriguez

Sebastian Boucher

Brandon Tripp

Chris Amador

Daniel Firueroa

Kieron Pope

David Cash

Joeseph Nowiki

Matthew Angle

Jacob Julius

Robert Widlansky

Kyle Hudson

Kraig Binick

Calvin Lester

Arthur Bonevacia

Xavier Avery

Jason Rook

Brian Conley

Ronnie Welty

Edwin Cintron

Nowicki and Angle should be in Frederick but by the end of the season they should be in Bowie if not Norfolk. As for Figuaroa he should be in Bowie or Norfolk next year. Widlansky should stay at Delmarva because he came in our last 5 games and he adjusted well but should spend a little more time there.

[rlc]

I just question whether a team will carry a guy with so little power.

Not just carry, but play extensively and pay extravagantly - if you are Lucky Pierre:

Age  AB  ISO Salary22 200 .010 23 617 .088   $215 K24 592 .056   $600 K25 668 .068 $1,000 K26 678 .081 $2,400 K27 656 .078 $3,700 K28 699 .096 $5,750 K29 668 .060 $7,500 K30 340 .038 $7,500 K

[Angle's] isolated power is about on par with Brandon Fahey's (no I am not exaggerating). He will need to keep his OBP from slipping too much further as he moves up the chain.

Not exaggerating, but...

    Angles          SlatsAge  Lev  ISO   Age  Lev  ISO21   A- .051    21   A- .08522   A  .092    22   A+ .055                23   A+ .088                    AA  .057                24  AA  .076                25 AAA  .045                26 AAA  .088                27 AAA  .045

Fahey's ISO has shown no trend, just random variation around a measly mean. If Angle can continue to add .050 of isolated power a year, of course he'll be in the bigs to stay by age 24; if he can merely hang around .090 and (as you said) maintain his OBP, he'll be ahead of Fahey and Pierre.

[Ruzious]

I just question whether a team will carry a guy with so little power. His isolated power is about on par with Brandon Fahey's (no I am not exaggerating). He will need to keep his OBP from slipping too much further as he moves up the chain.

Again, his post all-star game numbers were .328/.426/.443. I wouldn't be comparing him to Fahey in any way, at this point.

[Frobby]

Fahey's ISO has shown no trend, just random variation around a measly mean. If Angle can continue to add .050 of isolated power a year, of course he'll be in the bigs to stay by age 24; if he can merely hang around .090 and (as you said) maintain his OBP, he'll be ahead of Fahey and Pierre.

How many players add .050 of isolated power a year? That's unrealistic, I think. But if he could get his ISOP up over .100 on a consistent basis, that might be sufficient. As to Pierre, some things just can't be explained.

[rlc]

How many players add .050 of isolated power a year? That's unrealistic, I think.

Unrealistic? Ridiculous is what I was aiming for. If he kept adding .050 of ISO every year, he'd be Babe Ruth before he turned 30.

You're right that an ISO over .100 combined with his defense, on-base ability and baserunning would make him a useful big leaguer, even for the Orioles. Given that Jones is more likely to become a high power/low on-base kind of player, a high on-base reserve might fit in well.

[oriolescrew]

At this point I have to ask: Are you Brandon Tripp or in any way related to Brandon Tripp?

And Comparing a 23 year old Tripp playing in A-ball to an 18 year old Avery who's fresh out of high school is ridiculous.

see there is your problem...

you must not comprehend what you are reading.

i simply gave you averys stats and said i dont see how you can consider him a prospect just yet based on his season.

and no, i am not either.

ps. keep me posted on your scouting reports. thanks

[Big Mac]

see there is your problem...

you must not comprehend what you are reading.

i simply gave you averys stats and said i dont see how you can consider him a prospect just yet based on his season.

and no, i am not either.

ps. keep me posted on your scouting reports. thanks

The reason you can consider Avery a prospect is based on his high draft status and scouts opinions on him.

The league Avery played in in High School was not very strong competition, so the GCL is pretty advanced competition compared to what he was facing.

Most 18 year-old's prospect status is based more on scouts opinions than just numbers. A guy at 18 years-old is very far from being a polished product, and most 18 year-olds have very few professional AB's (Avery has only 175 pro AB's), therefore stats aren't a good measure to determine their prospect status.

[Big Mac]

Again, his post all-star game numbers were .328/.426/.443. I wouldn't be comparing him to Fahey in any way, at this point.

I agree, his offensive upside is vastly superior to Brandon Fahey.

[Frobby]

The reason you can consider Avery a prospect is based on his high draft status and scouts opinions on him.

The league Avery played in in High School was not very strong competition, so the GCL is pretty advanced competition compared to what he was facing.

Most 18 year-old's prospect status is based more on scouts opinions than just numbers. A guy at 18 years-old is very far from being a polished product, and most 18 year-olds have very few professional AB's (Avery has only 175 pro AB's), therefore stats aren't a good measure to determine their prospect status.

It's just guesswork right now with Avery. He was drafted in the 2nd round, so obviously someone thought he had a lot of potential. Having potential, and actually becoming a good player, are two different things. I don't think we'll have a good read on how good a prospect Avery really is until after the 2010 season. By then he will be 20 years old, which is still younger than Tripp was when he was at Aberdeen.

[Frobby]

I agree, his offensive upside is vastly superior to Brandon Fahey.

Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting that his overall offense is comparable to Fahey's. I was suggesting that his power is comparable to Fahey's. Clearly Angle's BA, OBP and stolen bases give him much more offensive upside than Fahey.

[Big Mac]

Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting that his overall offense is comparable to Fahey's. I was suggesting that his power is comparable to Fahey's. Clearly Angle's BA, OBP and stolen bases give him much more offensive upside than Fahey.

That's what I figured.

[Playwright22]

Two guys I'd like to hear more about are Binick & Loewen. Where do they profile for next year? And I know Loewen's ultimate future is hard to predict, but what about Binick's?