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But that is not what you said. You said he’s a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier. Thus, you were stating he is close to as bad a fielder as Trumbo was, which is not correct. Generally speaking, no player makes up the loss of offensive value with defensive value as the age. It is usually one of the first things to go. I was not making any sort of argument that he was going to make up declining offense with defense, just pointing out that you made a preposterous statement. -
At least relative to the rest of the league Santander has an interesting profile because he is comfortably above-average at making contact; his whiff rates are much better than Trumbo's so he's not really as much of a TTO player as you would think. This gives him hope that he will age a little bit better than someone like Trumbo. Though he's still got a good shot of being out of the league in 3 years. -
It's not the money, it's the years. I wouldn't mind signing him for a year or two, even at what I'd consider to be stupid money. But what I DON'T agree with is signing him for any more than 2-3 years as I don't think he's going to age well. And I expect him to get more than 3 years from someone, so I'm a hard pass. Can we afford him? Money wise, sure. But I don't want to see us stuck with him 4-5 years down the road when his skillset has greatly diminished, but he's still playing every day because we owe him a lot of money and a lot of loyalty. Let some other club take that risk, get the QO pick and move on. -
By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted
Santander does exactly ONE thing very well: Hit HRs He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't get on base, he's a very slow runner, and he is a very poor defender. If he stops hitting HRs so often, his value completely evaporates and his contract basically becomes dead money, and the Orioles cannot afford to eat large amounts of dead money like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees of the world. I am simply using Trumbo, whose basic tool kit is very similar to Santander's, as a fairly recent, Orioles-related cautionary tale. Trumbo had his big walk year with the Orioles at age 30 and instead of doing the smart, obvious thing and taking the free draft pick, we gave him a big money extension that everyone except the FO knew was probably going to end poorly. Baseball Savant has Santander in the 22nd percentile in terms of overall fielding value. However you want to slice it, he isn't going to make up any lost value from declining offense with his defense. If his ability to slug goes south, the whole contract goes with it, because he has no other tools to make up for that with. -
Santander is -2 OAA this year. He’s averagish to below average. There but there are much worse defensive right fielders such as Adolis Garcia and Castellanos -9, Lane Thomas and Renfroe -8, and Soto -4. Acuna and Tatis are also -2 OAA. In 2016, Mark Trumbo was -15 OAA. They’re not even in the same universe.
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Anthony Santander (age 27-29): .245 / .317 / .477 / .794 124 OPS+ 9.0 rWAR Mark Trumbo (age 27-29): .244 / .299 / .443 / .742 105 OPS+ 2.6 rWAR Is it really very meaningful that Trumbo was the better player when they were significantly younger? 29-year-old Santander is a better player by miles than Trumbo at the same age, and he has been for years. I think that’s what matters most to how you’d project them over the next few years. -
By Grt 2BA FL Gator · Posted
I love Tony and I honestly think we are gonna miss his veteran leadership as much as anything. I’m very happy we have him for this year. But I do think he’d be a bad long term investment.
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