Nunez DFA

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So Hyde loves Mullins' defend in center and Mullins hits right-hander for almost a 800 OPS and Hyde is going to just sit Mullins  so can DH Stewart.  Makes no sense to me.

Mullins hits RHer for almost an 800 OPS?

That sentence reads as if that is over a lot of bats over his career.  Let’s not overstate what he has done and let’s also recognize that his OPS is helped in a major way by bunt hits. 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins hits RHer for almost an 800 OPS?

That sentence reads as if that is over a lot of bats over his career.  Let’s not overstate what he has done and let’s also recognize that his OPS is helped in a major way by bunt hits. 

OK, sounds right.

[Tony-OH]

Let's look at the comparisons using some key stats and metrics between Nunez and Stewart. Both players will play most of next season at 27 but Nunez is actually five months younger than Stewart. Stewart bats left-handed and Nunez bats right-handed. Stewart is a below average defensive corner outfielder, Nunez is a below average defensive corner infielder. Both probably should spend most of their time at DH.

Name	WOBA	XWOBA	Barrel%	Hard hit%	EV	K%	B%	wRC+
Stewart	.347	.326	19.2	46.2	91.4	33.9	17.9	123
Nunez	.347	.301	12.1	36.4	86.3	29.6	7.9	119
MLB AVG	.317	.321	6.4	34.9	88.3	21.8	8.3	100

Now it's worth noting that Nunez has a better track record of success at the major league level and had almost twice as many PAs than Stewart and Stewart hit all of his home runs over a nine game stretch where he slashed .394/.444./1.061/1.505 over 36 PAs. 

Stewart 2020 streaks:
First 10 games over 28 PAs: .000/.386/.000/.385
Next  9 games over 36 PAs: .394/.444./1.061/1.505 (all 7 home runs)
Last 12 games over 48 PAs: .103/.271/.128/.399

So at the end of the day, Stewart outperformed Nunez in most metrics, but almost all of that damage came over 36 PAs.  

Given the track record and the fact that it's doubtful Nunez would make over 2 Million next year, I think he was worth keeping on the roster, especially considering the injury history of several players that would take PAs away from him.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mullins will get AB's.  I just don't see him starting everyday in CF if everyone is healthy. However,  I believe Mullins gaining everyday AB's is certainly possible and that would pretty much take away Stewart's role as Mountcastle would move out of the OF and either he or Mancini would DH.  

i don't see Mullins as an everyday CF either.  I see him has a platoon CF vs right-handed pitching plus as  a defensive replacement when a lefties starters and the O's are protecting a lead.

[Sports Guy]

Why would you have interest in Puig and DFA Nunez?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/yasiel-puig-ready-to-play-2021-mlb-season

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would you have interest in Puig and DFA Nunez?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/yasiel-puig-ready-to-play-2021-mlb-season

You wouldn't.

Not unless it was ownership driven.

[Philip]

Well, nobody wanted to give anything for Nunez, so he cleared waivers. That reinforces that he had zero trade value. So that’s one question settled. And he wasn’t worth 2 million, either.

As a free agent he can sign with anyone for any amount. And several AL teams might be interested. It remains to be seen whether he’ll get a ML contract but  I’m sure he’s going to be playing somewhere next season. All best to him.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Well, nobody wanted to give anything for Nunez, so he cleared waivers. That reinforces that he had zero trade value. So that’s one question settled. And he wasn’t worth 2 million, either.

As a free agent he can sign with anyone for any amount. And several AL teams might be interested. It remains to be seen whether he’ll get a ML contract but  I’m sure he’s going to be playing somewhere next season. All best to him.

He’s worth .5-1 WAR.  That’s obviously worth more than 2M

[Jammer7]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s worth .5-1 WAR.  That’s obviously worth more than 2M

No team was willing to pay that, so I guess he isn't worth that, not right now anyway.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s worth .5-1 WAR.  That’s obviously worth more than 2M

Apparently it’s not that obvious or someone would have traded for him.   The market for WAR is not linear, even if you can make the argument that it should be.   

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s worth .5-1 WAR.  That’s obviously worth more than 2M

Ummm, it seems not.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Apparently it’s not that obvious or someone would have traded for him.   The market for WAR is not linear, even if you can make the argument that it should be.   

No, it absolutely is the formula and what’s he’s worth.  That’s a fact.

However, there are only a few teams that need a DH, so it’s not surprising that the market isn’t there..plus, you have announced that you are cutting him, so why trade for him with so little completion?

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Your tone of authority when you are clearly in a fog is admirable.  Anyone who thought his arbitration number was a bargain, as you suggest, could have offered a warm body to secure his services before he hit the open market.  What won't make sense is if any team offers him 2M or more now that he's available to any team that wants him.

It’s a supply and demand thing.  Whether someone offers X amount of dollars is irrelevant.  The Os And their structure, could use his bat and his production.   Most teams don’t have that combo of at bats and money they can spend on a player with his skill set.  
 

The Os do...and the idea that other teams chose not to do it is irrelevant to his value to this organization.  The idea that they may be looking into Puig (conjecture) and brought on a LH DH type at REINFORCES the idea that this is salary driven, not producing driven imo.  
 

My only argument with this decision is that this isn’t solely or even largely driven by roster management despite what Elias says.  He is lying for management.

[ChosenOne21]

Just because a player is worth a certain amount of money according to WAR, doesn't mean teams are going to line up to pay a player that amount. A win is worth what, $8 or $9 million according to WAR? So according to that formula, Nunez is worth somewhere between $4 and $9 million.

But most teams don't pay players worth two wins or less anything near their market rate. Sure, there might be an exception or two, or someone might be worth two wins or less who's finishing out an expensive contract that was priced based on them being worth more wins than that.

Successful teams (without enormous budgets, and even then they still generally don't do this) pay free agent stars and superstars their market worth by WAR, and try to get the two win and under guys for dirt cheap to fill out the roster. This is what is meant by WAR not being linear. Guys like Renato Nunez aren't going to sign for anywhere from $4-$9 million, because it's not hard to stumble around in your farm system or on waivers and find guys for league minimum who have a good chance to be worth a similar amount.

All of MLB just passed on the opportunity to pay Nunez a $2-$3 million salary and control his rights for two more seasons after next for the cost of a waiver claim. I imagine if he signs with a team, it will be for less than that amount. You can talk until you're blue in the face about how the formula dictates he's worth that, but if no one is willing to pay a price because they can get the same thing for less money somewhere else, then it's asinine to insist that they should have paid him $2-$3 million

And come on. I don't think the Orioles are unique in their DH situation, and they've got a ton of corner outfielders and first basemen who need bats. We weren't the only team with "room" for him. Would they have kept him if they could have continued to pay him league minimum? Probably. What you're missing is that salary and production are two sides of the same coin. Yes, the Orioles cut Nunez because of money. Because his likely production was replaceable for less than $2-$3 million dollars

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Just because a player is worth a certain amount of money according to WAR, doesn't mean teams are going to line up to pay a player that amount. A win is worth what, $8 or $9 million according to WAR? So according to that formula, Nunez is worth somewhere between $4 and $9 million.

But most teams don't pay players worth two wins or less anything near their market rate.

My quibble here is that the term “market rate” means what teams are willing to pay.    I’d say teams don’t pay these players their theoretical value.    But we mean the same thing.   

I don’t think the market is static.   Two players could have identical performance and demand could be higher or lower depending on circumstances.    Let’s say you have two players who each were worth 1.0 WAR.    One is a DH, the other is a middle infielder.    Those two players may have equal value hypothetically, but one could be in greater demand than the other depending on what’s available in the market.   A team that already has two DH types and a shortage of middle infielders is not going to be willing to pay the same amount for each player.