Vaccine/fans in the stands/revenue

[jabba72]

34 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Owners will try to play as few games as possible when the stands aren't full.   When they play games and pay players but aren't getting revenue from attendance, they don't like it.   The networks that pay for national TV don't care about the regular season, regular season games are low rated.   They pay what they pay for the right to broadcast the postseason.   Even the local TV money isn't always that big a deal as there are many teams that own their own networks (MASN, NESN, YES) so the rights fees paid are just a paper transaction.

So if you are an owner, you will play as few games in front of diminished crowds as you can get away with and still have a postseason to televise.

It's just a matter of what the union will agree to.   But the players getting vaccinated has NOTHING to do with whether they play 162.

 You could be right that its bad for profits to play 100+ in empty stands. I wasnt thinking about that side of it.   

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 You could be right that its bad for profits to play 100+ in empty stands. I wasnt thinking about that side of it.   

That's why we wound up with a 60 game season this year.   Players wanted 80.  Owners were able to stall as long as possible until there was only time for 60.

They will do as much as they can to minimize the number of games in front of no fans or extremely diminished fans next year.   The only thing fighting in the other direction will be the players union, who of course wants to play more games (or, more accuratenly, wants to get paid for more games).

[Moose Milligan]

24 minutes ago, MDK02 said:

That would be a real shame. I don't see what the point of a vaccine is if thing aren't going back to normal. I think we get full stands in 2021.

I think things are going back to normal from a daily life routine. But I think Covid has taught people how to live without things that they thought they couldn't live without.  I can't live without baseball, but I can quite easily live without going to OPACY again.  I'm happy to go if there are others that want to but I'm not going to be the one to suggest going.

Add to that that baseball's fanbase is increasingly growing older and hasn't figured out a way to capture millennial and Gen Z attention.  Washington Post had an article on it the other day, it was a good read:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/24/gen-z-sports-fans/

If the NFL is worried, MLB should be absolutely petrified. 

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Unlikely would have been a better word for me to use.  All signs point to the COVID situation being much better this Spring in comparison to last Spring.  If it was possible to play 80 games in 2020 it should be possible to play many more than that in 2021. 

We have a vaccine, protocols will be improved, and it will be possible to get fans back in the stands at some point in the season if even in a limited capacity. 

I think it remains to be seen how much better things will be by Spring 2021.    The survival rate for diagnosed cases is vastly better today than it was last Spring, but the number of cases is way higher and growing.   Last spring deaths reached 18,000 one week but that was the only time it topped 15,000; the last two weeks we’ve exceeded 10,000 per week and based on the growth in cases and hospitalizations I’m pretty sure deaths will be in excess of 15,000 week within the next 2-3 weeks.   I hope the numbers will recede by spring as vaccinations take place and other improvements in prevention and treatment occur, but it’s hard to tell just how high the peak will go before the trend reversed, and how quickly it will reverse.    

[ChuckS]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it remains to be seen how much better things will be by Spring 2021.    The survival rate for diagnosed cases is vastly better today than it was last Spring, but the number of cases is way higher and growing.   Last spring deaths reached 18,000 one week but that was the only time it topped 15,000; the last two weeks we’ve exceeded 10,000 per week and based on the growth in cases and hospitalizations I’m pretty sure deaths will be in excess of 15,000 week within the next 2-3 weeks.   I hope the numbers will recede by spring as vaccinations take place and other improvements in prevention and treatment occur, but it’s hard to tell just how high the peak will go before the trend reversed, and how quickly it will reverse.    

I don't think the spikes we are seeing now have much baring on how things will look 3-4 months down the line.  Also, every new case we are getting now is one less person that can contract it and spread it in the future and gets us closer to herd immunity.  That combined with the vaccine and the end of flu season will ultimately slow down those numbers. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I was also replying to Weems who is calling for half-season at best in 2021.  I think that's absurd. 

Now, I'm not sure we get a full season.  But I would hope close to it or something like 120 games. Starting in May and ending in November also isn't out of the question. 

My opinion. Definitely not absurd though. You can be mad at the situation, but not that I am looking at the reality.

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't think the spikes we are seeing now have much baring on how things will look 3-4 months down the line.  Also, every new case we are getting now is one less person that can contract it and spread it in the future and gets us closer to herd immunity.  That combined with the vaccine and the end of flu season will ultimately slow down those numbers. 

I don't quite agree with your logic here.  It seems to me that each person that contracts the virus increases the probability of the spread of the contagion, not decreases it.  We are a long, long way from herd immunity, IMO, and that isn't really a likely outcome any time soon, if ever.  Fortunately, I believe that the development and implementation of vaccines will win the war vs. this disease.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I don't quite agree with your logic here.  It seems to me that each person that contracts the virus increases the probability of the spread of the contagion, not decreases it.  We are a long, long way from herd immunity, IMO, and that isn't really a likely outcome any time soon, if ever.  Fortunately, I believe that the development and implementation of vaccines will win the war vs. this disease.

We will continue to be a long ways away from herd immunity is the local and federal govts keep overstepping their boundaries and telling us what we can and can not do.

[ChuckS]

34 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I don't quite agree with your logic here.  It seems to me that each person that contracts the virus increases the probability of the spread of the contagion, not decreases it.  We are a long, long way from herd immunity, IMO, and that isn't really a likely outcome any time soon, if ever.  Fortunately, I believe that the development and implementation of vaccines will win the war vs. this disease.

It will take mass numbers of people getting the vaccination to get us to herd immunity, I'm aware of that.  But every person contracting the disease at this point makes that number less. 

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't think the spikes we are seeing now have much baring on how things will look 3-4 months down the line.  Also, every new case we are getting now is one less person that can contract it and spread it in the future and gets us closer to herd immunity.  That combined with the vaccine and the end of flu season will ultimately slow down those numbers. 

I hope you are right.   I looked at an article today where the head of Operation Warp Speed said they hope to have 70 million vaccinated by the end of February and proceed at 30 million a month from there.   

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We will continue to be a long ways away from herd immunity is the local and federal govts keep overstepping their boundaries and telling us what we can and can not do.

Quote

15.) No political or religious threads/discussions.

 

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I hope you are right.   I looked at an article today where the head of Operation Warp Speed said they hope to have 70 million vaccinated by the end of February and proceed at 30 million a month from there.   

So 100 million people by the end of March. Then you have to consider that it’s possible that another 50 million have already been infected by the point. That’s about half the population and starts getting us closer to herd immunity. 
 

I wonder if they try to put in place some system where only those who have been vaccinated will be able to attend games.  

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think it's going to be a long time before we see that with any regularity.  If ever again.

I think there will be sold out games at some point next year, even if just the WS (assuming they’re allowed to sell out).

The way that people reacted when restrictions were lifted in May and June is a pretty clear indicator of that. People were desperate for a sense of normalcy then and they will be again next season.