Orioles Lose Zach Pop and Grey Fenter in Rule Five

[Jammer7]

Mike and Sig are not stupid, so I will give the benefit of the doubt for now. I said at the time, and I stand by it, like most here, that I would have kept Pop if he is healthy. Maybe it was a mistake, sure. Or maybe Pop comes back to earth in the next few weeks and months. Or maybe their analysis of his mechanics, pronation of the 2 seam and such, says it is a huge red flag for further/imminent injury. Maybe when the league has a book on him they lay off the sinker. Or move up in the box and get it out front before it breaks as much. The slider looks average-ish to me. Are his pitches tunnelled, or different slots? IDK, but I am sure this was a video and data-based decision. 

I think last night was the first time he pitched toward the middle innings against some starters. A sinker with a 2400 rpm? Seems like a high spin rate for a 2 seam, wow. I thought those are generally around 2,000 or so. 

[jabba72]

26 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Mike and Sig are not stupid, so I will give the benefit of the doubt for now. I said at the time, and I stand by it, like most here, that I would have kept Pop if he is healthy. Maybe it was a mistake, sure. Or maybe Pop comes back to earth in the next few weeks and months. Or maybe their analysis of his mechanics, pronation of the 2 seam and such, says it is a huge red flag for further/imminent injury. Maybe when the league has a book on him they lay off the sinker. Or move up in the box and get it out front before it breaks as much. The slider looks average-ish to me. Are his pitches tunnelled, or different slots? IDK, but I am sure this was a video and data-based decision. 

I think last night was the first time he pitched toward the middle innings against some starters. A sinker with a 2400 rpm? Seems like a high spin rate for a 2 seam, wow. I thought those are generally around 2,000 or so. 

Its possible they didnt think he would return to form or is too fragile going forward. We dont really know much except for one video of a few pitches which were impressive. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Mike and Sig are not stupid, so I will give the benefit of the doubt for now. I said at the time, and I stand by it, like most here, that I would have kept Pop if he is healthy. Maybe it was a mistake, sure. Or maybe Pop comes back to earth in the next few weeks and months. Or maybe their analysis of his mechanics, pronation of the 2 seam and such, says it is a huge red flag for further/imminent injury. Maybe when the league has a book on him they lay off the sinker. Or move up in the box and get it out front before it breaks as much. The slider looks average-ish to me. Are his pitches tunnelled, or different slots? IDK, but I am sure this was a video and data-based decision. 

I think last night was the first time he pitched toward the middle innings against some starters. A sinker with a 2400 rpm? Seems like a high spin rate for a 2 seam, wow. I thought those are generally around 2,000 or so. 

I agree with most of what you say here, but I think this comes down to who he protected instead. A healthy Pop has a better chance of either being part of a winning future or being moved as a piece for a player than Goudeau, Sulser or Lakins ever will. 

For a team that is being pretty consistent with staying on goal, this was a mistake. Even if they have the concerns you mentioned, none of which are outlandish, he still has more value than those three.

I think he just thought no one would take Pop because of his layoff and maybe due to the fact Elias/Sig seem to have an issue with sinkers being a good pitch. Either way, I think allowing a healthy Pop be left unprotested with the players they protected, on top of the players they selected in the Rule 5 draft shows they miscalculated a bit here.

I call them as I see them and I think this goes down as a mistake. How big a mistake will be determined by how well Pop pitches now and more importantly, in the next 2-4 years.

[Jammer7]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree with most of what you say here, but I think this comes down to who he protected instead. A healthy Pop has a better chance of either being part of a winning future or being moved as a piece for a player than Goudeau, Sulser or Lakins ever will. 

For a team that is being pretty consistent with staying on goal, this was a mistake. Even if they have the concerns you mentioned, none of which are outlandish, he still has more value than those three.

I think he just thought no one would take Pop because of his layoff and maybe due to the fact Elias/Sig seem to have an issue with sinkers being a good pitch. Either way, I think allowing a healthy Pop be left unprotested with the players they protected, on top of the players they selected in the Rule 5 draft shows they miscalculated a bit here.

I call them as I see them and I think this goes down as a mistake. How big a mistake will be determined by how well Pop pitches now and more importantly, in the next 2-4 years.

The bolded is undisputable and it is the reason I did not like it either. I guess I am just more trying to make sense of it. Smart people do make mistakes. It seems like Pop at 96-98 with that sink is ridiculous if he can sustain it. Logic says that there is a reason we just do not know yet. 

Didn't he used to be 94-96 with sink? And now he appears to be a tick up to 98. Maybe that is a new development. 

[MCO'sFan]

On 3/19/2021 at 1:41 PM, Sports Guy said:

Your last paragraph is the key.  The stupidity to keep those guys over Pop is amazing to me.  Elias hasn’t made many mistakes but that one was just flat out dumb.

I've been consistent with my frustration with this decision since the day he was left unprotected let alone the R5 draft. I am not saying the guy should be fired. I think overall he's exactly what the O's need right now but man this decision is just completely inexcusable. Pop is the type of guy he has been acquiring at the expense of the ML team. To let him go for nothing and keep the three guys mentioned "Goudeau (who he already DFA'd and lost), Lakins and a 31-year old Sulser." I also think that Shaw was on the 40 man when R5 was set is mind blowing. 

[Philip]

This is where the beats come in. I would love for anyone of the Baltimore oriole writers to ask Mike why he made the choice he made.

I will wager my immortal soul that nobody will ask, and if anybody does, he will give a non-answer, and they will let it go.

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

This is where the beats come in. I would love for anyone of the Baltimore oriole writers to ask Mike why he made the choice he made.

I will wager my immortal soul that nobody will ask, and if anybody does, he will give a non-answer, and they will let it go.

Mike would not likely give much of an answer, certainly not until Pop is either returned or has satisfied the R5 requirements at the end of the year. And even then, we are likely not going to get an in-depth explanation of their evaluation process. We all want to know. Dan Connolly, Jon Melli and Rich Dubroff would certainly ask when appropriate. 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I've been consistent with my frustration with this decision since the day he was left unprotected let alone the R5 draft. I am not saying the guy should be fired. I think overall he's exactly what the O's need right now but man this decision is just completely inexcusable. Pop is the type of guy he has been acquiring at the expense of the ML team. To let him go for nothing and keep the three guys mentioned "Goudeau (who he already DFA'd and lost), Lakins and a 31-year old Sulser." I also think that Shaw was on the 40 man when R5 was set is mind blowing. 

Yea, its definitely nothing close in terms of an offense that deserves to be fired but it’s an idiotic judge of talent in this particular case.  The one thing that I will say is that whoever made the decision (I know it’s ultimately Elias but I’m sure others argued for it) needs to be greatly questioned and the process in which they came to that decision needs to stop.

The thing about Elias that bothers me the most is that he is always pounding on the table about talent acquisition and yet you let a talented arm go away to keep far lesser upside guys.  That’s just dumb and not consistent with what you preach.

[Tony-OH]

On 3/19/2021 at 5:40 PM, Jammer7 said:

The bolded is undisputable and it is the reason I did not like it either. I guess I am just more trying to make sense of it. Smart people do make mistakes. It seems like Pop at 96-98 with that sink is ridiculous if he can sustain it. Logic says that there is a reason we just do not know yet. 

Didn't he used to be 94-96 with sink? And now he appears to be a tick up to 98. Maybe that is a new development. 

My guess if that Elias took a gamble that no one had seen Pop pitch in two years so he wouldn't be taken. I have heard of Pop into the upper 90s at times so if it's an uptick it's a slight uptick. 

The jury is still out on whether this ends up a mistake, but for the life of me I don't understand protecting the three I mentioned earlier over him. 

Then again, Tyler Greene looks better than those three and he was a minor league free agent signee so the story hasn't been completed on all of this.

[Philip]

43 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Mike would not likely give much of an answer, certainly not until Pop is either returned or has satisfied the R5 requirements at the end of the year. And even then, we are likely not going to get an in-depth explanation of their evaluation process. We all want to know. Dan Connolly, Jon Melli and Rich Dubroff would certainly ask when appropriate. 

I am unclear as to why it’s not appropriate now, although it might be better to ask when Pop makes the team. The real question is why did Mike think those other guys offered more than Pop? Sulser is 31+, Lakin is a journeyman at best, and Goudeau was a waiver pickup. Asking Mike why he preferred those guys is a legit question at any time, and his answer will be telling. It could be as simple as “I didn’t think anyone would take Pop.” But that still leaves the question of what is so special about those three, or any of several other guys who could have been let go.

there are other more pressing issues, so I’m not going to press the question, but it is a legit question.

[LookinUp]

33 minutes ago, Philip said:

I am unclear as to why it’s not appropriate now, although it might be better to ask when Pop makes the team. The real question is why did Mike think those other guys offered more than Pop? Sulser is 31+, Lakin is a journeyman at best, and Goudeau was a waiver pickup. Asking Mike why he preferred those guys is a legit question at any time, and his answer will be telling. It could be as simple as “I didn’t think anyone would take Pop.” But that still leaves the question of what is so special about those three, or any of several other guys who could have been let go.

there are other more pressing issues, so I’m not going to press the question, but it is a legit question.

I doubt he'd want to talk about a player under contract with another organization. That's not usually allowed.

I do think that "reports" that the O's thought x/y/z could come out though. That's how this type of thing is usually reported.

My guess is it's the combination of the injury, layoff and profile, with the profile being a type that for whatever reason we don't favor here. That would be a bit of a blind spot, if true, I'd think. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I am unclear as to why it’s not appropriate now, although it might be better to ask when Pop makes the team. The real question is why did Mike think those other guys offered more than Pop? Sulser is 31+, Lakin is a journeyman at best, and Goudeau was a waiver pickup. Asking Mike why he preferred those guys is a legit question at any time, and his answer will be telling. It could be as simple as “I didn’t think anyone would take Pop.” But that still leaves the question of what is so special about those three, or any of several other guys who could have been let go.

there are other more pressing issues, so I’m not going to press the question, but it is a legit question.

It's a legit question when Pop makes the team or is returned. He's not going to answer anything on Pop now, nor should he.

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Then again, Tyler Greene looks better than those three and he was a minor league free agent signee so the story hasn't been completed on all of this.

I was going to mention Greene.  Like what I've seen there and it does suggest there are lots of big arms around.  I wanted Pop protected like everyone else but at least part of that was just hoping we'd get as much as possible from that Machado trade.  Pop had great numbers at the time of the trade, and many liked him in the '17 draft, but he had only pitched about 10 innings since ME got here.

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

My guess if that Elias took a gamble that no one had seen Pop pitch in two years so he wouldn't be taken. I have heard of Pop into the upper 90s at times so if it's an uptick it's a slight uptick. 

The jury is still out on whether this ends up a mistake, but for the life of me I don't understand protecting the three I mentioned earlier over him. 

Then again, Tyler Greene looks better than those three and he was a minor league free agent signee so the story hasn't been completed on all of this.

Who is Tyler Greene?

[Ripken]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Who is Tyler Greene?

Tony means Conner Greene