Trade Bait 2021

[sportsfan8703]

Valdez and his off speed stuff offer value to a contender. His change up when on, seems to trouble hitters as much as Mariano’s cutter, and Britton’s sinker. 
 

Valdez is much more than a random reliever on a non contender, that is just racking up saves. He’s actually pretty nasty. 
 

 

[connja]

 

21 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Valdez and his off speed stuff offer value to a contender. His change up when on, seems to trouble hitters as much as Mariano’s cutter, and Britton’s sinker. 
 

Valdez is much more than a random reliever on a non contender, that is just racking up saves. He’s actually pretty nasty. 
 

 

His changeup is almost like a fast knuckleball in the way that it moves.  It's crazy.  If it didn't move so much hitters could just sit on it because he throws it so much.  

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, connja said:

 

His changeup is almost like a fast knuckleball in the way that it moves.  It's crazy.  If it didn't move so much hitters could just sit on it because he throws it so much.  

The best tribute to a pitcher is when he throws ONE pitch, the hitter knows it’s coming every time, and still can’t hit it.

Britton threw one pitch, a sinker, Rivera threw one pitch, the cutter, and Valdez throws a dead fish...

[Redskins Rick]

Where is @Roy Firestone when we need him?

I would love to ask Jim Palmer to compare Means to Bedard and see what he has to say on the subject.

Given at the time Bedard was the best lefty he had seen throw for the Orioles.

 

[HowAboutThat]

9 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Depends on the minor leaguer, but I personally wouldn't want the O's to get Cease. I'd like to see us go after Matthew Thompson and/or Bryan Ramos.

The white Sox are ripe for October. They don’t want a limited guy. They’ll go for someone significant. If the Indians are still in it they might be interested, but nobody wants to trade for a guy as injury-prone as Santander, God bless him.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

If we want to talk about peak and how they are trending, I think it's still a lot closer than the initial implication. Means's 2019 wasn't too far behind Bedard's 2007, although the latter was pretty clearly superior. That said, Means's 2021 thus far is on pace to well outstrip anything Bedard did as an Oriole, including 2007. It's early and Means could certainly falter, but it largely seems to be a clear continuation of 2019 and 2020, with most things trending in positive directions.

Yeah, I don’t consider Means’ 2019 season to be that comparable to Bedard’s 2007, in which he finished  5th in the Cy Young voting despite missing the final month.   He might well have won the award but for his injury.   He finished third in the league in strikeouts despite missing 5-6 starts.  

[UMDTerrapins]

I agree that's it's hard to argue (yet) that Means is better than Bedard was at his best. But I would argue that if Means keeps pitching like he has been, he should have nearly comparable value (even if he doesn't in actuality) at the upcoming trade deadline, given that he would be under team control for 3.5 more years....whereas Bedard only had two years remaining when he was dealt. But would we be as fortunate as we were with Jones/Tillman/Sherrill....doubtful. Today however, I can't stop thinking what happens at the deadline if we're somehow hovering around .500. I've been going on the assumption that we'll deal off a few pieces this summer. If Jones/Hall/Rutschman are ready to help us in the second half, our roster starts looking kinda interesting. My point is this.......I have no idea what the hell is going on. But it's the opening day that matters to me, and I'm confused/alarmed by my recent optimism. 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Where is @Roy Firestone when we need him?

I would love to ask Jim Palmer to compare Means to Bedard and see what he has to say on the subject.

Given at the time Bedard was the best lefty he had seen throw for the Orioles.

 

I'm not Jim Palmer.

Bedard had better breaking stuff, Means better changeup, similar fastballs. 

[Redskins Rick]

25 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I'm not Jim Palmer.

Bedard had better breaking stuff, Means better changeup, similar fastballs. 

I think the breaking stuff/changeup and fastball difference is what makes them similar and what makes them hard to hit.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I'm not Jim Palmer.

Bedard had better breaking stuff, Means better changeup, similar fastballs. 

Means isn’t done maturing as a pitcher.    He’s always looking for ways to improve and never really satisfied, which I appreciate.   It would not shock me if he ended up having a better career than Bedard, if he stays healthier than Bedard was.   Bedard was effective when healthy after leaving Baltimore, but he was constantly getting hurt.  He played 11 years but only threw 1,303 innings.   Means is a little behind where Bedard was a the same age innings-wise, but he can easily make up that ground if healthy.  

[foxfield]

I just want to point out how freaking awesome it is to discuss how good a player is and how good he might be and especially how he stacks up against other good Orioles.

Means vs Bedard is a good discussion and a fair one.  I agree with Frobby and others that say Means still isn't on par with Bedard.  But that misses the point.  IF and that is nothing today....but IF, Means continues for the rest of this year and is healthy and performing as he is?  He will be in the mix of CY discussion and as a trade target could bring quite a big haul.

The question remains however, if he holds, folds or improves from here.  Then you have to weigh the years left of control...can you really move him?  

If he looks like he does now in September...I think that is one hell of a tough call. 

[Morgan423]

11 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The question remains however, if he holds, folds or improves from here.  Then you have to weigh the years left of control...can you really move him?  

If he looks like he does now in September...I think that is one hell of a tough call. 

Decided entirely by what we are being offered for him.  Very rarely is there a circumstance where specific players are untradable, especially if we are offered an insane overpay.

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I just want to point out how freaking awesome it is to discuss how good a player is and how good he might be and especially how he stacks up against other good Orioles.

Means vs Bedard is a good discussion and a fair one.  I agree with Frobby and others that say Means still isn't on par with Bedard.  But that misses the point.  IF and that is nothing today....but IF, Means continues for the rest of this year and is healthy and performing as he is?  He will be in the mix of CY discussion and as a trade target could bring quite a big haul.

The question remains however, if he holds, folds or improves from here.  Then you have to weigh the years left of control...can you really move him?  

If he looks like he does now in September...I think that is one hell of a tough call. 

I know it's come up before, but what would be a reasonable extension to but you FA years? Obviously it gets more expensive if he keeps this up. But if you assume arb salaries of 6-12-18, then 20 and 20 for two years of FA, that's $76M over five. You knock it down quite a bit for uncertainty / giving him a guarantee three years out... Maybe something like $50-60M / 5 years with two team options at $15-20 each?

This is thinking this coming offseason going into 2022, assuming general continuation of current performance (similar performance, some regression on results to be expected)

[foxfield]

16 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I know it's come up before, but what would be a reasonable extension to but you FA years? Obviously it gets more expensive if he keeps this up. But if you assume arb salaries of 6-12-18, then 20 and 20 for two years of FA, that's $76M over five. You knock it down quite a bit for uncertainty / giving him a guarantee three years out... Maybe something like $50-60M / 5 years with two team options at $15-20 each?

This is thinking this coming offseason going into 2022, assuming general continuation of current performance (similar performance, some regression on results to be expected)

So, I could be convinced to keep almost anyone you believe is key.  But we are going to learn so much this season.  Obviously the points I made above speak to Means' worth.  He could stay the same, which would have incredible value, regress or improve.  But here is the thing.  The team progress depends much much more on the other young guys who are not here.  Pitchers AND position players.  I see zero reason to even consider an extension unless I am unbelievably excited about the progress down on the farm and if I am, I am selling hard to Means the value of being on the ground floor.

But the numbers above are not out of line if he continues to perform at this level.  The question is, can this ownership fund the success that we hope is coming?

Today is not the day to worry about that, but I am doubtful.  So in the MEANtime, pun intended.  I am really trying to enjoy the development of Means and I hope that he is just the beginning.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I know it's come up before, but what would be a reasonable extension to but you FA years? Obviously it gets more expensive if he keeps this up. But if you assume arb salaries of 6-12-18, then 20 and 20 for two years of FA, that's $76M over five. You knock it down quite a bit for uncertainty / giving him a guarantee three years out... Maybe something like $50-60M / 5 years with two team options at $15-20 each?

This is thinking this coming offseason going into 2022, assuming general continuation of current performance (similar performance, some regression on results to be expected)

Before the season (and that is key here) I wrote:

Do: 4 years, $14 mm with two team options at $10 mm.

Dont do: 4 years, $20 mm with two team options at $13 mm and a $2 mm buyout.   

(Note: the 4 years I was referencing included this season and his 3 Arb years.)
 

Obviously, the price has gone way up by now due to the great start Means has had to his season.   Still, I would never assume Means was going to get $6/$12/$18 mm during his Arb years.   Just to give you a sense, Gerrit Cole got $3.75/$6.75/$13.5.  Strasburg got $3.975/$7.4/$10.4.