Tex or AJ

[Tx Oriole]

T81, do you believe in your heart of hearts that the O's will sign Tex? Or shall i say does Angelos pony up 180 million for Tex? Sure Tex is one of the best first basemen in the game. I just see either Tex wants to win a WS and just resigns with LA even if they don't get to the WS. Sure Tex would be a great addition to the O's. Would love to have him on the team. Sorry, i just don't see him signing with the O's. Not to be a downer T. I juit don't see it happening.

[Frobby]

When's the last time a player who's arguably the best (or nearly best) free agent at his position was signed to a deal that was thought of as just a middle-of-the-road, reasonable contract? How many times have we said something like "We should be all over Soriano for 5/80" only to have Soriano sign for 8/136?

If the consensus at the Hangout is that Burnett is worth 4/56, I'd bet he signs for at least 5/70.

I believe C.C. Sabathia is the best pitcher availale, not A.J. Burnett.

As a public service, I've tried to put together a list of the richest existing pitching contracts, by total value (this includes a few that have just expired).

$137 mm/6 - Santana

$126 mm/7 - Zito

$121 mm/8 - Hampton

$91 mm/5 - Zambrano

$73 mm/5 - Oswalt

$63 mm/5 - Carpenter

$60 mm/5 - Millwood

$56 mm/4 - Buehrle

$55 mm/5 - Meche

$55 mm/5 - Burnett

$53 mm/4 - Martinez

$52 mm/3 - Peavy

$52 mm/6 - Matsusaka

$48 mm/4 - Silva

$47 mm/3 - Schmidt

$47 mm/4 - Hudson

$47 mm/4 - Nathan

$46 mm/4 - Cordero

$45 mm/3 - Rivera

$43 mm/4 - Wagner

$40 mm/3 - Halladay

$40 mm/4 - Lilly

$40 mm/4 - Pavano

$38 mm/4 - Sheets

$38 mm/4 - Bonderman

$37 mm/4 - Washburn

$36 mm/4 - Harang

$36 mm/4 - Lowe

$35 mm/3 - Vazquez

$34 mm/3 - Padilla

$33 mm/3 - Westbrook

$30 mm/3 - Beckett

$29 mm/3 - Garland

$29 mm/3 - Contreras

$29 mm/3 - Willis

$26 mm/3 - Myers

The following make $14mm/yr or more - Santana, Zito, Hampton, Zambrano, Oswalt, Peavy, Schmidt, Rivera, Buehrle.

[JTrea81]

T81, do you believe in your heart of hearts that the O's will sign Tex? Or shall i say does Angelos pony up 180 million for Tex? Sure Tex is one of the best first basemen in the game. I just see either Tex wants to win a WS and just resigns with LA even if they don't get to the WS. Sure Tex would be a great addition to the O's. Would love to have him on the team. Sorry, i just don't see him signing with the O's. Not to be a downer T. I juit don't see it happening.

Absolutely. Angelos will pony up 200 million for Tex if he has to. Tex isn't resigning with LAA unless they offer the most. And they have payroll limitations that won't let them offer much more than 18-20 million per season. The Orioles can easily beat that.

And there are too many lures here for Tex to stay out West. His wife doesn't have any friends out there, and I would imagine would like to be much closer to her family in Georgia.

All signs point to yes for the Orioles acquiring Tex, but I don't blame anybody for not sharing my optimism as we've been burned by Vlad, Delgado and two Lee's...

[geschinger]

Absolutely. Angelos will pony up 200 million for Tex if he has to. Tex isn't resigning with LAA unless they offer the most. And they have payroll limitations that won't let them offer much more than 18-20 million per season. The Orioles can easily beat that.

And there are too many lures here for Tex to stay out West. His wife doesn't have any friends out there, and I would imagine would like to be much closer to her family in Georgia.

All signs point to yes for the Orioles acquiring Tex, but I don't blame anybody for not sharing my optimism as we've been burned by Vlad, Delgado and two Lee's...

I don't think LAA is going to be in the final bidding but they will have the most impact on how much money he gets. Whatever he turns down from them during their negotiating windows becomes the baseline and it's up, up, up, and away from there. But I do think they will come out with an (overly?) generous deal, he'll turn it down and they'll wisely move on.

[BedardisAce]

I believe C.C. Sabathia is the best pitcher availale, not A.J. Burnett.

As a public service, I've tried to put together a list of the richest existing pitching contracts, by total value (this includes a few that have just expired).

$137 mm/6 - Santana

$126 mm/7 - Zito

$121 mm/8 - Hampton

$91 mm/5 - Zambrano

$73 mm/5 - Oswalt

$63 mm/5 - Carpenter

$60 mm/5 - Millwood

$56 mm/4 - Buehrle

$55 mm/5 - Meche

$55 mm/5 - Burnett

$53 mm/4 - Martinez

$52 mm/3 - Peavy

$52 mm/6 - Matsusaka

$48 mm/4 - Silva

$47 mm/3 - Schmidt

$47 mm/4 - Hudson

$47 mm/4 - Nathan

$46 mm/4 - Cordero

$45 mm/3 - Rivera

$43 mm/4 - Wagner

$40 mm/3 - Halladay

$40 mm/4 - Lilly

$40 mm/4 - Pavano

$38 mm/4 - Sheets

$38 mm/4 - Bonderman

$37 mm/4 - Washburn

$36 mm/4 - Harang

$36 mm/4 - Lowe

$35 mm/3 - Vazquez

$34 mm/3 - Padilla

$33 mm/3 - Westbrook

$30 mm/3 - Beckett

$29 mm/3 - Garland

$29 mm/3 - Contreras

$29 mm/3 - Willis

$26 mm/3 - Myers

The following make $14mm/yr or more - Santana, Zito, Hampton, Zambrano, Oswalt, Peavy, Schmidt, Rivera, Buehrle.

I wouldn't pay Burnett over $14 million. He is no Peavy, Oswalt, Santana, or Zambrano. All of the other starting pitchers you mentioned over $14 M, their teams regretted the deals as soon as the ink dried. 3 years $39 million is the highest I would go. If he wants to play in Baltimore, I'd put it out there for him to take. Otherwise, move on.

He isn't an ace and we should not be getting stuck with that kind of contract for a pitcher with an injury history who isn't a #1. If we are patient enough, we will have some number 2 starters coming through who make a fraction of that amount. Sign Tex now and wait for a true ace pitcher to become available, or if there is enough cash, make a run at CC.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't pay Burnett over $14 million. He is no Peavy, Oswalt, Santana, or Zambrano. All of the other starting pitchers you mentioned over $14 M, their teams regretted the deals as soon as the ink dried.

I'd say Buehrle and Rivera have earned their pay so far. Put it this way, they've done as well as their teams should have expected.

[BlackWillow]

It would be great if we were to pick up 'two top tier' free agents, but I have the feeling we will be picking up 'two' free agents. We have supposedly had the money for a few years now, and no major financial increases have been made. Time will tell.

[bandy75]

I think I'd rather sign DLowe to a 4 year deal. Not sure what it would take maybe somewhere between 48 and 56 mil??? I know he's 35 but who cares, everybody these days pitches into their 40's. Or maybe we can sign Mussina to a 2/20 deal. Or both?

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't be upset if they signed him. But if they go that route, they need to offer him a contract that'll be a realistic shot at getting him. None of this lowball stuff, none of this "oh, we offered him 4/50 but those crazy Dodgers offered him 5/75 and we didn't ever expect it." If they want him, they need to be prepared to go 5/75 or 5/85, because that's what it'll likely take.

There's nothing disrespectful about countering Toronto's 4/54 with an initial offer of 4/50 (although I would throw him the extra $4 mil in buyout dollars in exchange for him giving us a couple of option years). If the crazy Dodgers offer 5/75 and we choose to fold our hand, so be it. And that may well happen. But that's no reason to opt out now.

[JTrea81]

I think I'd rather sign DLowe to a 4 year deal. Not sure what it would take maybe somewhere between 48 and 56 mil??? I know he's 35 but who cares, everybody these days pitches into their 40's. Or maybe we can sign Mussina to a 2/20 deal. Or both?

Lowe would be a disaster in OPACY, and he's looking for 17 million+ a season with Boras as his agent. No thanks...

Mussina would be a nice sign, but it's going to take a lot more than 2/20 to lure him out of the Bronx or retirement...

[JTrea81]

There's nothing disrespectful about countering Toronto's 4/54 with an initial offer of 4/50 (although I would throw him the extra $4 mil in buyout dollars in exchange for him giving us a couple of option years). If the crazy Dodgers offer 5/75 and we choose to fold our hand, so be it. And that may well happen. But that's no reason to opt out now.

Yeah it is, it's called lowballing, and it's something the Orioles did far too much of before MacPhail took over. It's a reason FA avoided us like the plague. If we want a FA, we are going to have to be aggressive and make a competitive offer. If Toronto offered 4/54 and he turned it down, there is no way 4/50 will land him, especially with the Yankees bidding on him.

I think we are his first choice, so if we want him, we have to show him that we want him. I would say 4/60 would be a starting offer. Otherwise, we shouldn't even bother.

[Anonymous]

Yeah it is, it's called lowballing, and it's something the Orioles did far too much of before MacPhail took over. It's a reason FA avoided us like the plague. If we want a FA, we are going to have to be aggressive and make a competitive offer. If Toronto offered 4/54 and he turned it down, there is no way 4/50 will land him, especially with the Yankees bidding on him.

I think we are his first choice, so if we want him, we have to show him that we want him. I would say 4/60 would be a starting offer. Otherwise, we shouldn't even bother.

This isn't a logical statement, JTrea.

If Toronto was his first choice, then it certainly would be lowballing if we didn't exceed their offer. Since by all appearance he prefers Baltimore to Toronto, it's perfectly legitimate for us to make an initial offer that's within shouting distance, whether 4/50 or, as I've advocated, a 4/54 - 5/67 - 6/80 option package (with the O's controlling the options).

Having said that, if Andy decides to go 4/60, in anticipation of what the Yankees may do (and I assume he's got a better grip on this than any of us), I have no objection.

[scOtt]

For me whether or not he's worth it depends on the total payroll. There are many ways to build a winner but the way that seems least likely to succeed IMO is if you have 20-30% of payroll tied up in a single player. I'm not sure we can have success long term if say we signed Tex to an 8 year $160m contract if Angelos approves an 8 year/$800m budget.

It's something I haven't looked at closely but I can't think of many teams with that kind of % of payroll tied up in one player but there may be examples. If we go to $125m payroll, then I definately think we could be successful spending 20+m a year on one player.

It all comes down to what kind of budget MacPhail is given as to whether or not that kind of commitment to Tex makes sense. There is no doubt that even in the AL East a team can be successful with a ~100m payroll. (assuming that the Yankees reign things in and don't significantly increase from where they are at now and the Red Sox stay in the same area they are currently in) It just takes a different approach - one that forgoes the 20+% of resources players.

IMO Tex would only be "20-30%" of our payroll next year. I fully understand the imbalance of one player making too much of the payroll, AROD in Texas showed us all that. But Tex won't be the last guy we sign, going forward. IMO, this doesn't apply in this situation. IMO you go all-in this year.

[Mike B]

If we could only sign one of these guys, which one would you want??

I wish it was another pitcher besides AJ only because of the injury factor but I do not care if Tex comes here and hits 70 HR's without pitching we would still be losers. AJ gets my vote.....and with the way our team is constituted pitching will get my vote until we can get the other team out.

[emmett16]

We need pitching desperately...you can never have too much! AJ!!!