Tex or AJ

[Mike B]

There are 3 reasons I see to make a strong bid for a guy of AJ's caliber, if the price stays within a range that Andy finds reasonable. Mike basically covers 2 of them:

1. Yes, we MAY have the pitching long-term. As Mike implies, we MAY NOT. If the young talent doesn't blossom as expected, AJ is an obvious need.

2. As Mike says directly, a solid veteran starter would help young pitchers develop. AJ may be overkill for this purpose, if that's the main motivation for getting him. But he obviously would fill that need.

3. Perhaps the most enticing thing for me, though, is the vision of what our rotation would look like if the young guys DO develop along the lines of something close to a best-case scenario. Just imagine a 2010-12 rotation of AJ, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta, in whatever order you wish to place them. Barring injuries or developmental hiccups, that quintet is championship material.

At least 3 of us agree (Old 5 Fan joined us). Signing Tex would be a glitzy, glamorous thing to do, and would provide a solid center point for our lineup, but might not make us a game better. Taking that money and adding AJ and Derek Lowe to Guthrie would give us a solid top 3, which would allow people like Olson, Liz, Jim Johnson (who I think will be given a shot to start), Patton, Albers, Penn etc to develop with less pressure as they could be moved into the rotation and BP without having to start. The innings that the to 3 would eat plus the ability to have some of the young guns cut their teeth in the en (like many Orioles greats of the past did), would keep the pen fresher and allow AA and AAA pitchers to arrive when they are ready and not when they are needed. That is how a team improves and that is when the Orioles will stop the collappsing in September, that has become the norm around here. If we sign Tex without at least 2 starters, no matter how well, he lays or Wieters plays or Jones matures, we will still be on fumes in September.

Now if Uncle Pete wants to dig deep and sign Tex, Lowe and AJ, then god bless him. What a wonderful Christmas that would be.

[Eight]

Signing Tex would be a glitzy, glamorous thing to do, and would provide a solid center point for our lineup, but might not make us a game better.

Seriously? Replacing Millar with Teixeira in the lineup this season would have netted us somewhere between 6 and 9 wins. That's about as big a realistic increase as we're going to be able to make through changing personnel at one position. What the Orioles need to do is to get better at scoring runs and at preventing runs from being scored. Whether they do that by focusing on scoring or run prevention is largely irrelevant.

[Sports Guy]

Seriously? Replacing Millar with Teixeira in the lineup this season would have netted us somewhere between 6 and 9 wins. That's about as big a realistic increase as we're going to be able to make through changing personnel at one position. What the Orioles need to do is to get better at scoring runs and at preventing runs from being scored. Whether they do that by focusing on scoring or run prevention is largely irrelevant.

Yea..I continued to be amazed by how many people continue to underestimate how good Tex really is.

[JTrea81]

Yea..I continued to be amazed by how many people continue to underestimate how good Tex really is.

He's been on the Manny Ramirez level for both the Braves and Angels for the stretch runs during 2007 and 2008...

[JTrea81]

If we sign Tex without at least 2 starters, no matter how well, he lays or Wieters plays or Jones matures, we will still be on fumes in September..

There is no reason why we can't sign Tex first and then a Randy Wolf or a Paul Byrd later. Tex should be the priority though if we can only sign one. We just need average SP to win 85 games IMO. We don't neccessarily need Burnett to compete. We have to have Teixeira though unless MacPhail is ready to trade Arrieta and Tillman for hitting.

[Mike B]

There is no reason why we can't sign Tex first and then a Randy Wolf or a Paul Byrd later. Tex should be the priority though if we can only sign one. We just need average SP to win 85 games IMO. We don't neccessarily need Burnett to compete. We have to have Teixeira though unless MacPhail is ready to trade Arrieta and Tillman for hitting.

Randy Wolf and Paul Bryd have more downside than upside. Neither pitcher is likely to anchor a rotation. They are a lot closer to Trax than efficient.

[Mike B]

Yea..I continued to be amazed by how many people continue to underestimate how good Tex really is.

It has nothing to do with underestimating Tex and it comes to need. Our hitting was decent to good. Our pitching was god awful especially late when injuries and fatique crushed us. IF you can not pitch you can not win.

[Sports Guy]

Randy Wolf and Paul Bryd have more downside than upside. Neither pitcher is likely to anchor a rotation. They are a lot closer to Trax than efficient.

For the contract Burnett is looking at getting, this can be said about him as well.

[JTrea81]

Randy Wolf and Paul Bryd have more downside than upside. Neither pitcher is likely to anchor a rotation. They are a lot closer to Trax than efficient.

We don't need a rotation anchor per say in 2009. We've got three future members of the rotation in the minors out of the crop of pitchers we have.

All we need is 2 guys to put behind Guthrie that can pitch 180-200 innings and have a sub 5.00 ERA so that our bullpen actually has a chance of being used normally. Wolf and Byrd qualify in that regard.

[JTrea81]

It has nothing to do with underestimating Tex and it comes to need. Our hitting was decent to good. Our pitching was god awful especially late when injuries and fatique crushed us. IF you can not pitch you can not win.

Huff and Mora are gone in 2010. Who replaces their offense? Wieters can't do it by himself. And it would be a good idea to be an offensive powerhouse to compensate for the young pitching that we'll be using in the next few years in our rotation. We can be the Texas Rangers for a year or two while our pitchers fully develop.

[Sports Guy]

It has nothing to do with underestimating Tex and it comes to need. Our hitting was decent to good. Our pitching was god awful especially late when injuries and fatique crushed us. IF you can not pitch you can not win.

For THIS YEAR...But we also had guys have some years they aren't likely to appraoch again and we have a bunch of guys who will be gone after next year.

Tex is also a better position player than AJ is a pitcher.

It just amazes me that anyone could say AJ is the better long term option for us..mind boggling.

[Mike B]

For THIS YEAR...But we also had guys have some years they aren't likely to appraoch again and we have a bunch of guys who will be gone after next year.

Tex is also a better position player than AJ is a pitcher.

It just amazes me that anyone could say AJ is the better long term option for us..mind boggling.

I am saying pitching is clearly the bigger need. We were awful with our staff. It may get better but it will not be serviceable. I understand you value Texiera and want him here. So do I, but if you can pitch and play D, you can compete. We can not compete with this staff.

I really do not think we are likely to sign either but I would take 2 quality pitchers over Tex. Spending 22 million a year on Tex improves our lineup but does not make us that much better.

[Eight]

It has nothing to do with underestimating Tex and it comes to need. Our hitting was decent to good. Our pitching was god awful especially late when injuries and fatique crushed us. IF you can not pitch you can not win.

The Orioles finished 8th in the league in runs scored and 8th in the league in OPS+. While the pitching was far worse (13th in runs allowed, and 13th in ERA+, as well as 14th in K, BB, and HR), this team will not be competitive until it makes significant upgrades to both its offense and defense. Teixeira is likely to give us far more of an upgrade in run scoring than will Burnett in run prevention.

Spending 22 million a year on Tex improves our lineup but does not make us that much better.

Again, Tex would improve us by a half dozen wins, conservatively, and maybe by 8 or 9 wins. That is an immense upgrade. If the Orioles forgo signing Tex and get two pitchers, $15M on Burnett and $10M on a Lohse-type pitcher does not upgrade the team by as much as $20M on Tex.

[Mike B]

The Orioles finished 8th in the league in runs scored and 8th in the league in OPS+. While the pitching was far worse (13th in runs allowed, and 13th in ERA+, as well as 14th in K, BB, and HR), this team will not be competitive until it makes significant upgrades to both its offense and defense. Teixeira is likely to give us far more of an upgrade in run scoring than will Burnett in run prevention.

Again, Tex would improve us by a half dozen wins, conservatively, and maybe by 8 or 9 wins. That is an immense upgrade. If the Orioles forgo signing Tex and get two pitchers, $15M on Burnett and $10M on a Lohse-type pitcher does not upgrade the team by as much as $20M on Tex.

I could not diagree more. I will give you the argument that Tex would improve us 7 to 9 games. That would be true if Huff, Nick, BRob etc duplicated what they did this year. That takes us to a robust 77 games. Still lousy. He would not stop the September collapse. Put Tex in the lineup this past September, do you think we would win many more games. Two Quality pitchers improves the rotation, allows the young guys to grow and also stabalizes the BP by allowing guys like Liz to pitch there and also stops the exhausting of the pen early in the year. IMO Tex does not do any of that.

Bottom line I think we are arguing over nothing. If the Yankees want him we lose. Boras will take every possible $$$. They have the new stadium, room cleared on the massive payroll and a spot waiting at 1B. Our hope is that the Yankees go hog wild on Sheets/Sabathia and decide they want to stick it to the Red Sox and take Manny. If all that plays out, I could see them bypassing Tex and signing Nomar to play 1B. My gut tells me they pursue Tex and we wind up with a couple of vet pitchers and some one like Nomar to replace Millar. or possibly a splash and sign Dunn which worries me.

I am not trying to criticize your or SG thoughts. I would be excited as anyone to watch a Tex Presser on MASN but the pitching must be addressed as a priority and Randy Wolfe Types are not enough. We need a solid vet (2) to improve.

[GotNitro]

Let's also keep in mind that AJ can only help us one out of every five games, while Tex could make an impact every night.