MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Realistic expectations not driven mostly by cynicism?

I think fourth is a very reasonable expectation given their situation.

This is his area of specialty.  He clearly was emphasizing it over the ML roster.  He had a good starting point.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehhh, I don’t know about that.  There is value in that you can get who you want easier but teams boards are all over the place.  The difference in career WAR between pick 45 and 70 is probably nothing.  
 

So while there is value in getting who you want, you may still get that player later and/or get a similar talent.

Either way, that’s a terrible reason for losing games on purpose 

It's not just one reason.  Well, it's the reason they're not actively pursuing wins.  But not spending money in a quest to get wins 60-75 frees up resources to do other things in the organization.  To me it's pretty clear that the 1994-2017 Orioles were willing to spend some decent amount on MLB payroll and very little on all the infrastructure necessary for a self-sustaining organization.  While the 2018-present team looks a lot like the GM is being given a budget to spend as he sees fit, and he's very much concentrating on the background stuff instead of the MLB team.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not just one reason.  Well, it's the reason they're not actively pursuing wins.  But not spending money in a quest to get wins 60-75 frees up resources to do other things in the organization.  To me it's pretty clear that the 1994-2017 Orioles were willing to spend some decent amount on MLB payroll and very little on all the infrastructure necessary for a self-sustaining organization.  While the 2018-present team looks a lot like the GM is being given a budget to spend as he sees fit, and he's very much concentrating on the background stuff instead of the MLB team.

You don't think an ownership mandated payroll restrictions are playing a part?

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think fourth is a very reasonable expectation given their situation.

This is his area of specialty.  He clearly was emphasizing it over the ML roster.  He had a good starting point.

 

And fourth out of 30 in one snapshot by one opinion piece is a fine result.  It feels like your stance here is if they're not handily beating every other MLB organization (that, by the way, are trying to do much the same thing, perhaps not all with the same emphasis) then they're miserable failures.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think an ownership mandated payroll restrictions are playing a part?

Sure?  Maybe?  Does it matter? I couldn't really care less if they signed a bunch of 29-year-old warm bodies to try and win 76 games this year, unless it impacts the background work.  And I'm pretty sure it would impact the background work.

I think in broad terms Elias is given a pot of money and he can do with it as he sees fit.  And he sees fit to spend as little as possible on 2021 payroll so he has as much as possible for other things.  Yes, that pot of money is pretty small given the Orioles' recent performances, the owners' tolerance for going into the red, and the COVID situation.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And fourth out of 30 in one snapshot by one opinion piece is a fine result.  It feels like your stance here is if they're not handily beating every other MLB organization (that, by the way, is trying to do much the same thing, perhaps not all with the same emphasis) then they're miserable failures.

Not miserable failures, I didn't say that at all.

I'm saying he's meeting reasonable expectations.  He should be doing this well considering all the factors. 

If I go to work and do what I'm being paid to do I don't expect to get heaps of praise for doing what is expected of me.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not miserable failures, I didn't say that at all.

I'm saying he's meeting reasonable expectations.  He should be doing this well considering all the factors. 

If I go to work and do what I'm being paid to do I don't expect to get heaps of praise for doing what is expected of me.

I think we should recognize that he is meeting fairly high expectations in a difficult situation.  He's managing most of the aspects of a $1B company with $250M in annual revenues that was a train wreck when he took over, and with a fanbase that mostly measures everything in today's wins and losses.  He's not running a lemonade stand on the sidewalk.

I run a reasonably large division at work, and I'm quite happy that my boss and my employees seem to understand that meeting difficult expectations is a very good thing.

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not just one reason.  Well, it's the reason they're not actively pursuing wins.  But not spending money in a quest to get wins 60-75 frees up resources to do other things in the organization.  To me it's pretty clear that the 1994-2017 Orioles were willing to spend some decent amount on MLB payroll and very little on all the infrastructure necessary for a self-sustaining organization.  While the 2018-present team looks a lot like the GM is being given a budget to spend as he sees fit, and he's very much concentrating on the background stuff instead of the MLB team.

Every team spends that money in other areas of the organization, whether they are winning or not.

Every team signs their picks.  Every team has player development, scouting, etc...I believe every team participates in intl FA.

The only real advantage to rebuilding is getting 1 high pick.  Everything else is the same for everyone. The draft pool is the only exception there but most of that money is put into the one higher pick.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think an ownership mandated payroll restrictions are playing a part?

The rebuild means going young and the side effect is lower payroll.

Ages on the O's 40 man roster in 2021 (baseball age):

24: (5) none arbitration eligible

25: (6) none arbitration eligible

26: (10) one arbitration eligible

27: (8) one arbitration eligible

28: (4) one arbitration eligible

29 (2)  two arbitration eligible

One each for 30, 31, 33, 35, 36;  one arbitration eligible, two long term contracts

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The rebuild means going young and the side effect is lower payroll.

Ages on the O's 40 man roster in 2021 (baseball age):

24: (5) none arbitration eligible

25: (6) none arbitration eligible

26: (10) one arbitration eligible

27: (8) one arbitration eligible

28: (4) one arbitration eligible

29 (2)  two arbitration eligible

One each for 30, 31, 33, 35, 36;  one arbitration eligible, two long term contracts

And extending the rebuild period keeps payroll lower.

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And what has this FO done to deserve those kudos anyway?  

I cannot back this up with statistics, though I'm guessing I could if I looked, but my impression is that the organization is doing far better in the minors for reasons that go way beyond top picks.

1. K rates are very high across the board.

2. Win % increased across the board. 

3. Guys like Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mountcastle, Kremer, etc. are flourishing.

4. Lower level guys like Rom seem to be flourishing, and others (e.g., Welk) show really nice signs essentially out of nowhere.

5. The two high level guys who hasn't flourished - yet - are Hall and Diaz. One is trying to harness stuff. The other has health issues. The next guy with potential who hasn't taken a step forward is Hanifee, but he was always more about potential than results.

This org seems to be developing players better than at any point since the early 80's. They're also developing winning teams at all levels for the first time in my memory. It's why the top 30 is deeper than at any point I can remember, and hopefully some international guys start to fill that in too. 

This is all Elias and Sig. Sure, some would have done fine under a normal regime, but this is a sea change. If you can't see that, you're not looking.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I cannot back this up with statistics, though I'm guessing I could if I looked, but my impression is that the organization is doing far better in the minors for reasons that go way beyond top picks.

1. K rates are very high across the board.

2. Win % increased across the board. 

3. Guys like Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mountcastle, Kremer, etc. are flourishing.

4. Lower level guys like Rom seem to be flourishing, and others (e.g., Welk) show really nice signs essentially out of nowhere.

5. The only high level guy who hasn't flourished - yet - is Diaz. He has health issues. The next guy with potential who hasn't taken a step forward is Hanifee, but he was always more about potential than results.

This org seems to be developing players better than at any point since the early 80's. They're also developing winning teams at all levels for the first time in my memory. It's why the top 30 is deeper than at any point I can remember, and hopefully some international guys start to fill that in too. 

This is all Elias and Sig. Sure, some would have done fine under a normal regime, but this is a sea change. If you can't see that, you're not looking.

Everything you say may be true..but it’s all based off of 1 season.  It means nothing until we see it more and consistently at higher levels.

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think we should recognize that he is meeting fairly high expectations in a difficult situation.  He's managing most of the aspects of a $1B company with $250M in annual revenues that was a train wreck when he took over, and with a fanbase that mostly measures everything in today's wins and losses.  He's not running a lemonade stand on the sidewalk.

I run a reasonably large division at work, and I'm quite happy that my boss and my employees seem to understand that meeting difficult expectations is a very good thing.

I know right!

Perhaps not a surprise we would be in the top third given our draft budget, but still the "I get paid to do my job" crowd may find it surprising that every organization in baseball is trying to accomplish the same thing and the situation ME inherited - with perhaps below average player development, international operations, analytics, equipment, etc - across the board throughout the entire organization plus approx $35-$40M of low production payroll on the major league roster into years 3 of the rebuild (and another $23M in year 4).

The early returns of ME's body of work are, IMO, quite impressive in terms of industry recognition of draft efforts, implementation of new technology, improvement in player results such as the minor league pitchers strikeout improvement/rates, signings and trades of Milone and Iggy, projected multiple top 40 signings in this (2020) international class.

I get that the average tenure of a major league GM is about 3.5 years and then they are fired, and that the post-mortem analysis of ME's actions won't be definitive for a few years.  In other words, it is easy to constantly criticize your GMs actions because a large majority don't work out.  It is only my opinion, but to classify ME's work to date with the Os as a, well, ME (meets expectations) or simply "he's paid to do his job" reflects a level of ignorance that doesn't come around these parts often.  

Not sure anyone here is going to give ME the best gm in baseball title on this thread, but it seems rather obvious that ME should receive above average to well-above average grades across a large majority of the different aspects of our organization that he is responsible for.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, hoosiers said:

I know right!

Perhaps not a surprise we would be in the top third given our draft budget, but still the "I get paid to do my job" crowd may find it surprising that every organization in baseball trying to accomplish the same thing and the situation ME inherited - with perhaps below average player development, international operations, analytics, equipment, etc - across the board throughout the entire organization. 

The early returns of ME's body of work are, IMO, quite impressive in terms of industry recognition of draft efforts, implementation of new technology, improvement in player results such as the minor league pitchers strikeout improvement/rates, signings and trades of Milone and Iggy, projected multiple top 40 signings in this (2020) international class.

I get that the average tenure of a major league GM is about 3.5 years and then they are fired, and that the post-mortem analysis of ME's actions won't be definitive for a few years.  In other words, it is easy to constantly criticize your GMs actions because a large majority don't work out.  It is only my opinion, but to classify ME's work to date with the Os as a, well, ME (meets expectations) or simply "he's paid to do his job" reflects a level of ignorance that doesn't come around these parts often.  

Not sure anyone here is going to give ME the best gm in baseball title on this thread, but it seems rather obvious that ME should receive above average to well-above average grades across a large majority of the different aspects of our organization that he is responsible for.

Most teams are trying to juggle winning games at the ML level and developing players in the minors.  I'm guessing that's harder than just doing one or the other.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Most teams are trying to juggle winning games at the ML level and developing players in the minors.  I'm guessing that's harder than just doing one or the other.

 

Lol..yea.

People are literally applauding Elias for doing nothing good at the ML level and are playing it off that you have to be terrible for 4-5 years to succeed long term.  And, on top of that, we have 1 years worth of “better” results to go off of.  Until we see more of a pattern, that doesn’t mean much.

Don’t get me wrong, Elias is a good GM.  I’m glad we have him.  It’s not his fault he has arguably the worst owners in the sport.

This is nothing but an excuse for the Angelos family to be cheap.  The only hope is that this leads to them selling because this organization will be a train wreck with them at the head of it.